Well, remember that hell has already frozen over in this scenario.
Probably depends if the “race-based” republicans actually vote for the democrat, or just abstain from voting.
I also agree with Julia except Powell wouldn’t run. He had to be dragged into it as it is. IMO, he understands what’s involved and would not want the hassle. Also not sure if Rice and Powell could survive each other.
It would have to be a Republican ticket because there isn’t any crossover vote for Dems.
Actually didn’t the ‘racist’ Pat Buchanan run with a black and female running mate (albeit one with very open paranoia towards Mexicans) in 2000? I think he is a kook, a bigot, and mostly dead wrong on everything - but I don’t think he is racist enough for the KKK crowd.
I think the number of white voters who will vote for that ticket to ‘prove’ how non-prejudiced they are, and how much progress has been made will vastly outnumber any hypothetical bigot vote.
And I suppose many black people would be leery of this ticket for one reason…if ever someone complained rightfully of racism, a lot of people could say “oh shut up already, we have a black president and vice president!”.
It’s WAAAYYY early, but at this point the front-runners are Jeb Bush, Bill Richardson, and Bill Frist for 2008.
If they had the nomination (which is a big big “IF”. Securing the 'pubby nomination would be an astonishing accomplishment) I think they’d do well in the general elections. In all the places where they’d be expected to do poorly as a result of race or gender (e.g., BibleBelt Old South), we would expect the voters who would otherwise vote Republican to either stay home in disgust, write in random protest candidates, or vote for a 3rd-party candidate (let’s say Buchanan runs). In all three cases, a Democratic party win fails to be an inevitability. Meanwhile, some toss-up states in other parts of the country could veer Republican because of
a) pro-choice stance. lots of people who would otherwise consider voting Republican refrain from doing so over abortion issues; or
b) perception, accurate or not, that a Republican party headed by Powell and Rice is just gonna be more sensitive to social issues that the 'pubbies have been oblivious to, especially race and gender stuff. lots of people who would consider voting Republican for fiscal or defense issue reasons refrain from doing so over social-justice issues.
Of all the available scenarios, the one I’d think would be most likely to kick the Republicans in the teeth would be the spectre of the 3rd-party right-wing candidate making a strong showing and splitting up votes in such a way as to let the Democratic party come out on top.
Let’s see…
You’ve got a black man.
You’ve got a woman.
You’ve got a black woman.
This country has never come close to having just one of these combinations in the Top Seat, let alone BOTH at the same time.
You’ve got both of these people being associated with an adminstration that’s totally fucked up at the present moment.
Neither has been elected before.
One is a military dude with a skeletons-in-the-closet past.
The other is a cold war pundit with little know-how in domestic affairs. And that last part applies to Colin as well.
The only reason people respect them is because they are “good negros”.
OK, the last point may not be true but I don’t get the ever-flowing love people have for Powell or Condi. If they were white they’d be just another set of White House big heads. OK, so Colin isn’t a raving lunatic like others in his party. Big freakin deal. That’s not enough to get a person elected. Condi can talk and walk at the same time. And oh yes! She is a virtuoso on the piano. But these qualities don’t make for a president or vice president.
GENERALIZATION ALERT!!
Black voters tend to be wary of black candidates who are very popular with white folks, especially middle-class and wealthy whites. The rationale goes that if white people like them, they have got to be dangerous.
True. But I think we are (finally) at the point where this can happen at the national level.
You realize, I’m sure, that this is your opinion and that while it might be shares be a minority of the US public, it is nowhere near the majority view, per any recent poll that you or I could cite.
Lots of good points, especially about neither being elected before. The only precident (president?:)) is that we have elected celebrated military guys before when they had no electoral past. And I do see Condi as going thru something like CA governor before she goes national. I’ve followed her career for a dozen years or so, and while you and I probably don’t agree much politically, I can say with confidence that she is VERY smart. And not just because I agree with her on most issues. Of course, being smart does not necessarily mean they’d be good in political offices. I’d like to see her take a shot at it, though, and see if she can hack it.
I see Powell as an accomplished, extremely articulate, very consistent individual. A breath of fresh air in the world of politics.
You seem to imply that many white folks give both of these a sort of “Affirmative Action” boost along the lines of “they’re pretty smart of a coupld of negroes”. Could very well be true for some people, but I certainly don’t see it that way myself.
I just don’t understand why we hear so much about Colin and Condi. Has Colin Powell been a better Secretary of State than past ones? Wasn’t there a discussion about how he should resign because he wasn’t doing a good job? And now that it’s come out that he may have willfully signed on to something that he thought was “bullshit”, I think he hasn’t been a good Secretary of State. IMHO, that’s not what a good SoS does.
Is Condi a spectular national security advisor, or is she just more recognizable? (I can’t name another one to save my life). I’m not denying her intelligence. But you never hear the intelligence of other White House advisors (or anyone else, for that matter) being trumpeted quite so much or so loudly. I don’t think we’d be hearing about how smart she is if 1)she was a man, 2)she was a white man. It bothers me how she’s treated like a circus act. It works my nerves. I don’t see why it doesn’t work other people’s nerves.
Yes, I think C&C get an inordinate amount of props for not being that extraordinary. And yes, I think white people are much more thrilled with them than black people. Despite what many may think, I believe that no amount of “blackness” will win over this important voting block if a Republican stamp of approval is branded on the ticket.
It is my opinion that this current administration is doing a bad job, but I’m certaintly not the only person who thinks this way. And even though we may be a significant minority now, I don’t think that will last. I think eventually the naked emperor will be seen for what he is. And when this happens, I think anyone associated with him will be seen for what they are: a bunch of dangerous people who tried to ocnvince us that the naked emperor was wearing an Armani suit.
First, I think it’s clear that Powell isn’t being coy; he honestly has no intention of running for President. He could have had the Republican nomination in any of the last three elections by clearing his throat, but has consistently refused to run. So the whole thing’s hypothetical.
That said, he’d be a very strong candidate. Ther would undoubtedly be some people who wouldn’t vote for him because of his race, but virtually none of them would vote against him either, they’d just sit out the election. Meanwhile, there would be many people (not all black) who would vote for him because of his race, and many of them would be traditionally Democratic voters. So Powell’s Democratic opponent would lose votes over the race issue without gaining any.
Ironically, Rice as a running mate would probably hurt Powell more than help him. It’s very unlikely either party will be running an all-Black slate anytime in the foreseeable future.
And finally, I think Jeb Bush doesn’t have a chance in 2008 (even assuming his brother is re-elected and is generally popular by then). I don’t think JB can overcome the public feeling that would be opposed to three consecutive Republican candidates being members of the same family.
George Bush did a great job isolating Pat Buchanan’s policies from the Republican party, and he did go a long way to quiet the rascists. A Powell/Rice ticket can really catch the Democrats with ther pants down.
As for so-called race based voting, I would answer that they are voting for increased clout in government. Powell is on record as favoring the idea of affirmative action.
I thought the discussion was not so much that he had done a bad job, but that he should resign because his views did not coincide with the administration.
This is entirely dependent on what your definition of a “Good SoS” is. There’s two schools of thought that apply to working for someone in general. One is that when you disagree with the party line, you resign in protest, preferring your principals over your service. The other is that you make your disagreement known, but having failed to change the direction of things, you remain in your position, possibly because you value loyalty, or think you can do more good remaining in the loop than if you leave. Both are entirely reasonable positions, and people are often lauded/criticized for both of them.
As Powell is a mililtary man, he’s more likely to go with the second. It’s a standard principal in military service that you state your disagreement reasonably, probably no more than twice, and then you salute smartly and do your job as you swore to do.
I can’t prove this since I don’t have access to the behind the scenes workings of the administration, but it’s my suspicion that Powell has in fact done a great job as Sec of State because of the moderating influence he is. You’ll probably never see great success from him, because he’s always fighting an uphill battle against the other opinions trying to be heard in the Oval Office. I think things would have been very different without him, in a manner which those who dislike the current administration would find much worse.
Bush is definitely not a shoo-in for 2004. The economy is kinda sucky, unemployment is up again, and Iraq (+ 9/11) are beginning to get some real scrutiny. And we’re still there.
And if the republicans lose out in '04, there’s little chance in '08. Especailly if the democrats get the economy back up and running.
Oyhers are right, though. Powell/Rice have no track record. Powell doesn’t really even want it.
Peace,
mangeorge
Bush may lose, but the REpublicans are practically a lock to maintain their Congressional majorities, possibly even expand them. More Democratic seats are at stake in the Senate than REpublican seats.
I don’t think they WOULD run together, since both of them put foreign policy at the top of their agenda, and are diametrically opposed tactically in that regard. Now, Powell with someone very similar to Bush, Sr. would be feasible, one with office experience and who wouldnt contradict him on foreign policy.
Of course, he’s not gonna run so… :::shrug:::
I’m not actually disagreeing with you all that much. In fact I think you have hit on a very good point and I can definitely see why it would “work your nerves”.
I’d just add a bit your analysis. And it’s more of a tweak than a basic disagreement.
First, for myself, it has nothing to do with the color of their skins. I have a high opinion of both because I’ve followed both their careers for a long time and so am basing my opinion on roughly 12 yrs of exposure, not just what they’ve done in the last 2 yrs.
I think a lot of people are judging Powell that way. He made a big name for himself nationally in the Bush I administration with the Gulf War. In fact, he does seem to be a Sec of State who is “flying under the radar” for anyone who remembers Kissinger. Now a big difference between those two is that Kissinger was (is) a huge sefl-promoter whereas Powell isn’t. So Powell has a {nationally recognized) track record that he’s living off of even if he hasn’t done all that much in his current job.
I also think Condi get’s more recognition becuase of the fact that she’s a woman than that she’s black. People would notice her more than is perhaps warrented if she were a white woman, too. And that she is quite young, or at least to appear to be. It’s kind of like people still think the real “important” jobs in gov’t, like international affairs, are men’s jobs. And older men’s job to boot.
So yeah, you’re right. She doesn’t fit the sterotype of what someone might expect a National Security Advisor to look like, and so she gets some extra press and praise.
You left out one thing about her. She is quite an accomlished pianist as you noted, but also loves to shop for shoes and has quite a collection. Would we know that about a male NSA?
Powell could have had a good chance of getting my vote before this whole Iraq bullshit hit the fan. He showed that in the end, he’s a good little soldier who will do what he’s told.
The president may be the Commander-in-chief, but needs to be a lot more than that in addition, and Powell has shown me that he lacks the leadership and independent thought I had credited him with in the past.
As for Rice, it’s bad enough that Big Oil has a direct representative in the Executive Office now, do we really the person with a tanker named after her to be a heartbeat away?
And anyone who thinks they can win really is underestimating the suppressed racism in this country. Assholes would crawl out of the woodwork to “keep them in their place”.
Here’s the real killer, can’t-be-beat combination:
Powell/McCain in 2008!
Unfortunately, McCain and Powell will both be too old.
But really, the unbeatable combination if you look at the numbers is… Bush/Cheney. I just read a poll of positive and negative attitudes towards certain political figures, and Bush and Cheney are right near the top of the list. Bush at 67% favorable, 27% unfavorable. Cheney at 61% favorable, 25% unfavorable.
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has only 44% favorable, and 47% unfavorable. Those high unfavorables are the main reason she’s unelectable in 2004.
Some other people:
Joe Lieberman: 46/23
John Kerry: 28/19
Dick Gephardt: 36/24
Howard Dean: 12/12
Bob Graham: 22/17
The numbers for all these people are so low because many people answered, “Never heard of him.” For example, 56% of all people polled have never heard of Howard Dean. Lieberman is the most well known, and 13% of the people say they’ve never heard of him.
The only person scoring higher than Bush in favorable ratings was Laura Bush.
Interestingly, the same poll asks, "If Bill Clinton could run in 2004, and became the nominee against George Bush, who would you vote for?’ In that scenario, George Bush beats Clinton by 21 percentage points.
The Democrats clearly have a huge hurdle in front of them. If the economic and political situation are anything close to what they are now, Bush wins easily. If the economy gets better (and It’s almost certain to), and the geopolitical situation improves (progress in Palestine, Iraq doing better), then Bush wins in a landslide of Reaganesque proportions, and sweeps more Republicans into the House and Senate on his coattails.
And if that happens, then the Republicans will have absoutely no excuses for their performance in the next four years, because they’ll control everything.
Sam:
Good points. I may not be quite as optimistic about your “rosey scenario”, but I think it has a fair chance of playing out that way. Bush-haters are so blinded by that hatred that they can’t see how popular he actually is. It’s one reason the left turns me off so much. Too many on that side of the aisle seem to always think that everyone who disagrees with them is just not smart enought to think for himself, or blinded by sheepish (uneducated) loyalty.
Of course righties have their own problems along those lines. Just seems to me to be more prevalent on the left.