Odds on 2008 presidential race

In My Humble Opinion
1

So pundits, who will it be in 2008?

Don’t tell me it’s to early to know or care. The odds on this race have been posted for some time now. Now is the time to act if you want fabulous odds on certain candidates. If that were OK where you live, of course.

Here’s some odds at one site for the race

Hillary Clinton 3-1
Rudy Giuliani 10-1
John McCain 12-1
George Allen 20-1
Jeb Bush 35-1
Mark Warner 45-1
Bill Richardson 50-1
Evan Bayh 50-1
Bill Frist 30-1
Joe Biden 30-1
John Edwards 30-1
John Kerry 50-1
Al Gore 75-1
Tom Vilsak 40-1

There are many others listed as well, some of them pretty nutty (Dick Cheney is 20-1 and Donald Trump is 2500-1).

I’m curious who people think will get the party nominations in 2008. I’m not looking for who people think should get the nominations (hence this is not in Great Debates).

On the Republican side I see a wild clash between the RINOs (Giuliani and McCain) and the NeoCons (Allen and Frist). What a fight that will be!

On the Democratic side a lot of people are thinking Clinton, but I don’t know. There are a lot of strong candidates from red states that would make solid contenders. Plus Governors seem to do better than Senators in the Presidential races.

2

I just hope, for everyone’s sake, that George Allen (R-VA) gets his assed kicked every way from Sunday. If you think the current President is an arrogant, smug, smirking, son-of-a-bitch, wait 'til you get to know George Allen.

My prediction: Guiliani ® vs. Edwards (D)

3

The repubs choices are tough. Right now, you can’t see an “establishment” guy going in, whether that’s Frist, Jeb, or Allen, so I’d have to agree that McCain or Giuliani would be more logical choices.

The drawback to both of them is lack of governorship, which seems to be an overlooked element. How far back do you have to go to find a president that wasn’t a governor? Kennedy? (I’m discounting Ford & Johnson because they came in after stints as veep).

As for Dems, I’d have to say Hilary at this point but I think Edwards will put up a strong run in the primaries.

As to Kerry & Gore. . .who was the last person to lose after being nominated by a party, to re-run again in a subsequent election? Does that ever happen?

4

For the Democrats: Vlsack (IA) and Shaheen[sup]1[/sup] (NH)
For the Republicans: McCain (AZ) and Allen[sup]2[/sup] (VA)

1 - As a compensation to women’s groups for stiffing Hillary.
2 - As a compensation to the right for nominating McCain.

5

See Nixon, Richard M.

Hillary will not be nominated. She’ s just the Republicans’ wet dream opponent. I think Edwards or Richardson.

For the Pubbies, that is so wide open I dare not venture a guess.

6

Is Barack Obama listed? He’s unlikely due to his youth and inexperience to date, but in 2012 he’s got to be a real threat to the GOP. I’m guessing 50-1 shot at best.

I think Hilary is a much longer shot than that. I certainly expect her in the primary, but even most Dems have to agree that she has no chance in a Presidential race. My mom can’t stand her, and if a woman can’t garner just about every female vote she won’t make the ticket.

It looks pretty wide open though, neither party has what you’d call a strong candidate right now.

7

Obama is 70-1

I saw poll a few months ago showing a hypothetical race between Clinton and McCain that had McCain ahead, but not by much. There are a lot of people who just hate Clinton, but I wonder how many of those will vote Republican anyway.

8

Edwards is the easy call for the Dems, to my mind. But the hard call is the Pubbies. If George’s poll numbers stay low, that keeps Jeb outta the race. (If Bush gets repopularized, it’ll be Edwards vs. Jeb, with Edwards the likely winner.) Giuliani could be a good nominee, but he’s had Marital Issues that could hurt among the Pubbie faithful, and prove useful to the Dems.

I just don’t think McCain is enough of a party loyalist to satiate the Pubbies. Neocon vs. neandercon will be the battle lines drawn, but I don’t know who’ll emerge.

9

Dems: Hillary or Evan Bayh
Reps: McCain and Guliani

A nice field, actually. Nobody I particularly hate in either camp.

10

I’m a little surprised by all the Edwards sentiment here. It seems to me he failed to bring the passion to the ticket that he was selected for last year.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like Mark Warner will be the guy for the Dems. He had an insanely high approval rating in Virginia, he’s tall and good looking. He’s a Governor from the south ala Carter and Clinton. He doesn’t have to defend voting for the war. I could see him doing well in Iowa.

The Republicans are tougher. My first thought is McCain, but there are so many issues. McCain is hated by many on the far right. He’s too pro-envirnment and he has failed to support Bush too often. If Giulinai runs, he will siphon moderate support away from McCain. I saw a poll this summer that showed Rudy G. as the most popular of the prospective Rep. candidates, but I don’t think he could win. He’s a pro-choice, pro-gun control New Yorker who cheated and dumped his wife. No way will that fly with the Republicans.

I’ve heard the conservative Christians are gong to get together and settle on a candidate as early as next year. Easier said than done. if they do do it though, could McCain overcome their choice? Looking at the Republican congressional delegation these days, I 'd be inclined to say no.

Allen would seem the first choice of this group, but he must first get reelected in VA and that’s no sure-thing. Also, a poor show by Republicans in next year’s elections would reflect badly on him.

Frist has not been effective at pushing through the Bush agenda in a Republican Senate. That has hurt him. Plus he broke with the neocons on stem cells and that could hurt him as well. Plus he killed cats he pretended to adopt as pets when he was in school. That means he will never be president. The late-night talk show guys would have a field day with that. Who’s going to vote for a kitty killer?

Brownback from KS might end up being the choice here.

The war is looming over the whole thing too. If we are still in Iraq taking casualties at the same clip as today in 2008 that will be a huge factor. I’d imagine Bush will pill out and declare victory (again) before the election, but if Iraq is a mess (and that’s likey) it will hurt the candidates who favored the war. It could open things up for someone who was against the war the whole way like Gore to get off the sidelines and into the action. It could hurt Clinton and Bayh who voted for the war.

More thoughts:

Warner vs. Allen - All VA contest.

Giuliani vs. Clinton - All NY contest. Record low turnout in the deep south for that one I would think.

11

I just don’t get why so many people are creaming their pants over Barack Obama. He just won his first junior senator seat, and people are talking about him winning the presidency before that first term is even over? 70-1 doesn’t sound long enough.

As a native Virginian, I also don’t get why everyone thinks Mark Warner would be a good candidate either. He wanted to institute a tax on Northern Virginia that would go to the state’s general fund. That kind of thinking will make him too liberal for most of the country.

I’m almost inclined to put money on McCain vs. Clinton.

12

Don’t forget to add Bush I to that list although I think before he was VeeP he had served a term or two a House Rep from Texas

13

Yeah, you’re fundamentally right, but that’s not always the most important factor in politics. Kinda screwy that way.

The guy is pretty much universally appreciated by the Dems, is a really powerful speaker, and has the ideal background for being the guy to break that whole minority barrier. I’m not saying it’s likely, just that I kina get why Dems are so optomistic for his prospects.

14

I agree, I’m by no means up to date on this stuff the way some politicos are, but I though Edwards fell flat and would make a really flimsy candidate for POTUS. The Dems more than anything need new blood, and new energy.

15

Mark Warner won’t play on the national level without some serious polish. He’s bright, he’s a good administrator, he’s rich as Croesus, but he’s a wooden on the stump and has the charisma of dry, white toast. He won over Mark Earley because Earley was even worse on the campaign trail and because the VA public was tired of the Republican’s management of the Commonwealth under Jim Gilmore.

Allen, for all his smugness and insufferablility (the guy really is a huge dick), he’s a good campaigner and he can deliver a stump speech.

If it comes to Allen vs. Warner, Allen wins in a landslide.

16

For Pubbies I hope for McCain/Giuliani or Giuliani and a Southern or western moderate to be determined.
My dream ticket is Giuliani/ Colin Powell
I am afraid the Right will push forth a strong Right Wing Republican from the South or the Bread Basket. They might take Rudy to appease us “Liberal” Republicans.
Dems: I think Hilary will be a tough sell, Edwards might be more likely.
Jim

17

Look at Carter in 1976 and B. Clinton in 1992.

The chances are that at least one nominee is someone most of us haven’t even heard of yet. (And if you have, you can’t imagine him/her getting the nomination.)

Is there a “betting the field” option?

18

Speaking as a Republican, we’ve had a “Dole” or a “Bush” on every Presidential ticket since 1976. I hope to God that this trend is broken 32 years after it started.

I wonder what kind of odds Condi is getting? I’m hoping pretty good, but I’m guessing about 25 to 1.

19

What is the Appeal of Condi? Her record and actions have not impressed me.
Rudy G, is tough on crime and America’s Mayor. McCain is the Republican that says Bullshit to both parties when needed. Colin Powell is a well respected man who when allowed built & executed a tremendous plan with others to make Desert Storm a 3 day victory. What are Condi’s Credentials to run the country?

Jim

20

How about Clinton for the Democrat VP slot? Lots of opportunities for old Bill to exercise his legendary charm abroad. America really does need to make use of BC.