Maybe it’s the assumption that she will automatically draw a lot of female and black voters (implying that women and minorities are simplistic one-issue voters)?
He said in 2004 that he didn’t think it was Constitutional, and I don’t know why he’d want the job.
My money is still on Hillary. I think the ‘hatred’ is overestimated, and the work she’s done with Republicans to build up credentials as a moderate is underestimated.
I think the bigger question on the Republican side will be, “Will the nominee allow any member of the Bush family to get within 1,000 miles of him while on the campaign trail?”
Boy I hope its more than that, but I am afraid you may be correct.
Jim
I see all the Condi v Hilary talk as wonk fantasy. It’s not going to happen. It’s the equivalent of comic geeks discussing Batman v Superman.
Condi will win, if she’s prepared
Coming from the Liberal/Democrat side, I would love to see Barack Obama win. He really impressed me after he won his senate seat last year - definitely looked like a guy with a future. Also, it would be an incredible step forward for both American politics and America as a nation (I think it could undo almost all of the Bush damage overnight), but I really don’t think it will happen in '08.
John Edwards is a deadweight. Maybe he could get the VP slot again, but if he ran in '08 it would just look like the Dems throwing an old news loser back into fray. He’s a good guy, slick politician and all, but he’s been too damaged by the Kerry loss to hold a Presidential ticket next time around.
As for the Republicans, I would really fear a McCain ticket. I know the guy is against so many of the things I believe in. But nevertheless, every time I see him I think, hey, if I could vote for this guy I’d definitely think about it. Come election day, even if could, I probably wouldn’t, but I’m a moderate-to-far-left guy that is a lot more committed to ideology than the average American voter. If McCain can escape a Republican smear campaign and distance himself form the Bush presidency, I’d really fear him.
We are leaving out one possibility for the Dems: Dean.
I’m not counting him out. He’s been popping into the spotlight just enough since the meltdown so that no one forgets about him, without overexposure. If the 2008 election were right now, I could see him being the kind of guy who could find something to do wtih the people disgusted with the republicans.
I know that right after the “I have a scream” speech people were counting him out of politics forever, but I don’t think that sticks to him. We’ve all seen it. We’re all over it. What are they going to do. . .start running more loops of it in October 2008?
See Nixon, Richard M.
I don’t Edwards has a chance in hell of grabbing the nomination. Only one failed VP candidate in the last sixty years has ever gotten their party’s nod, and even then it took twenty years. (Bob Dole was Ford’s VP choice in '76, and finally got the nomination in '96.)
Edwards is tops of the charts right now because he’s one of only about 3 possible Democratic candidates that any average American can name. (The other 2 being Kerry and Clinton.) But that won’t last. Since Edwards gave up his Senate seat, he’s going to have a very hard time ensuring that people remember his name, especially as new potential media darlings like Mark Warner and Bill Richardson ramp up their campaigns. (Or whatever equivalent actually show up in '08.)
And Edwards is going to face the exact same problem that Lieberman did in '04: as long as the previous Presidential candidate remains a viable candidate, the VP candidate is going to have to hold back and keep quiet. If Edwards starts making noise and drawing attention before Kerry rules out a race, it will lead to a lot of leaks and media discussion that will leave Edwards looking very bad; knowing this, he has to hold back, which makes dropping from people’s view even more likely.
I’m with ftg. I fully expect that the big leader come New Hampshire in 2008 will be someone none of us here are expecting to run, or have even heard of. I mean, how many of you knew anything about John Kerry in 2003? How many of you had even heard of Howard Dean in 2003?
I agree with many of the points here.
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Hillary may be nominated, but she’s not electable. Losing in the primaries would not be something she would like to see happen, so she may not run in 2008.
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McCain is the best shot for the Republicans. I also think that Rudy would have a decent shot, as would Colin Powell if he would run. I think a moderate Republican has a very good chance of being elected. Who else would the far right vote for? Hillary? They would hold their noses for what they see as the lesser of two evils.
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As a Republican, I fear Evan Bayh more than anyone.
Ah, I meant Hilary Clinton, not Bill. As her consort Bill would have lots of opportunities.
Isn’t that second category precisely the line that Democrats have been using in favour of Barack Obama?
What kind of site was it that offered these odds? In other words, were they actually accepting bets? If so, that opens up some great opportunities for line shopping and middling for those who like to gamble.
Here are some lines from Pinnacle Sports, an online bookmaker. They will accept wagers on these questions.
For those who don’t know, that means that you have to bet $100 on Hillary to win $108, and you must risk $118 to win $100 if you bet on “anyone else.” I think that’s nuts. She might not even run, and she’s hardly a lock to win the nomination if she does. There must be some Democrats who know that she’s completely unelectable.
I find it comforting that bookmakers (who know how to set odds like nobody’s business) think that the Democrats are favored.
I’d pick Rudy if the odds were better, but at 2.8-1 he’s a bad bet – talk to me at 6-1. I have the same objection to McCain. There’s a lot of value in Pataki at 63-1 (certainly way more than Gingrich at 33-1). I might just have to put $10 down.
The Republicans: Frist. He has the support of the religious right and the big-money Republican interests. That’s all you need to get the Republican nomination. Of course he pissed of the Falwell/Robertson crowd a little with his stem-cell stance earlier this year, but they’ll ignore that minor flaw as long as the candidate is militantly anti-abortion and anti-gay. Don’t underestimate the power of the RNC and the party’s generally conservative block. They showed in 2000 that they can crush a candidate making an outside shot. If they whacked mcCain in 2000 they can do it again in 2008. If they got the majority of the party to vote for Dubya, that same majority will vote for Frist who was is smarter and better spoken than Dubya.
As for his running mate, I have no clue. I imagine that he’d choose a relative unknown just like Dubya did.
The Democrats: I’ve been tilting towards Obama both for the ‘should win’ and the ‘will win’ titles. Basically he talks well, talks dynamically, and makes people comfortable and confident in his abilities. In the primary we’ll most likely again have seven dwarves or so, running around repeating the same platitudes and airing the same uninspiring commercials as we had in 2004. Obama, with his speaking style and unconventional stances, could really convince people that he was taking the Democrats in a new direction.
For his running mate I would say Richardson.
I’d flip those two. I think Richardson has an excellent shot at the nom because he’s a governor, not a senator–executive-level experience wins out over legislative.
Obama will be seen as too young and inexperienced to get the Presidential nomination, but I see a VP slot for him as a distinct possibility.
I think this is less true than the previous statement for a couple reasons. First and foremost, the Dems get the vast majority of the black vote as it is (and I expect the proportion to be off the charts this time around) so it leans away from the pandering impression. Secondly, I think Obama has more gravity than Condi and has at least been elected for something before.
Obama could be purple with orange polka-dots and still command the same level of admiration and respect he’s getting now, IMO.
Me too…if a 'Pubbie had to win.
Trouble is Rudy’s too…ethnic. And Colin, well, this is the United States after all–merit counts for squat. Condi’d be right out too for the same reason, doubly so. She’s rich and evil, but not rich and evil enough to overcome being a black woman.
Dr Evil 1,000,000-1
Sure, but he’s more like even money to grab the VP slot for the GOP.
Sad part is “Rudy’s too…ethnic” is almost a codephrase for he is too much a New Yorker.
It is refreshing that Rudy is the too ethnic one and not Colin.
Strange little thing nobody seems to realize. Colin Powell: Place of Birth New York, New York
Jim
I thought Dr Evil was the VP. Isn’t that just Dick Cheney’s Alter Ego.