Predict the markets with the current uncertainty

I have faced - over the last week - an endless procession of people asking what the market is going to do in the face of the shutdown et al.

I figure you guys are smart. Let’s see what you think.

Based on the S&P 500, indicate what you think will occur in the markets until October 17, 2013. At this moment it’s at 1652.06.

So what’s the future? Tell us and why. May the best prognosticator win.


It’s going down. I’m in the 3-7% category, though it obviously depends on how long the shutdown lasts and how the final solution is worked out.

But… I also think it’s going back up after we have a resolution. I’m not predicting any long-term harm to the markets. So I’m “reaching for the phone” because a 5% temporary dip seems like an ideal time to buy stock on the cheap.

The market has been really fickle and seems to be moving according to daily headlines. Most economic news has been positive as of late resulting in the +18% YTD.
The government shutdown is in the headlines all day everyday and it’s reflected in the current drop. I predict as soon as thats over it jumps back right to where we left off, around 1715.

Hmm. Not a lot of voters, but those who have are staying away from the middle.

I voted slightly up.

Good news - market goes up.

Bad news - market goes up on expectations of Fed holding back on taper or something similar.

You can take this to the bank:

“The market will fluctuate.”

Thank you. Please PM me to subscribe to my Financial Advice newsletter. :smiley:

They just announced a deal has been struck to reopen the gov. S&P is at 1718.
Off by 3.