Sure glad my kid isn’t in the navy anymore. It’s going to be awful if this doesn’t cool off.
Iraq lasted what, 8 years… Afghanistan is 18 years and counting. If Iran goes anything like that, my 9-year-old twins may be of enlistment/conscription age because of Trump’s idiotic foreign policy and his deranged supporters. Just another log to throw on the fire of my seething rage for him. But hey, nowadays that’s just another Wednesday.
Not since, IIRC, Hornet in October 1942. Worse damage control, and luck, and maybe Forrestal gets added to that tally. Ships were smaller then. I think Hornet had less than 2500 men aboard her, counting the aviators. Now, per the Wiki for CVN-72, it’s close to 5500. Never mind the mess her reactors might cause from battle damage.
The modern carrier battle group has a lot of things protecting it, and IIRC, an enemy is doing well if they can nail it down to a given 100 by 100 nm patch of ocean, but everybody thought capital ships were largely invulnerable to air attack too in the open ocean, and then came Prince of Wales and Repulse. A lot of the SPY vs spy schtick with ECM/ECCM and accompanying SSMs, I don’t think has been tested for real. Things have progressed on both attack and defense since Sheffield got sunk by that Exocet in 1982. AEGIS, provided everything is working (see Fitzgerald collision report) is supposed to be death on flying things. Yakhont is pretty scary compared to Exocet.
I couldn’t guess at the odds, but I think they’re a lot better for Lincoln in the open environs of the Arabian Sea, than trying to operate in the Persian Gulf. I do think the American public would be horrified at 5000 military dead, but I also think they’d really be split about what to do next.
This administration is not at all about dropping massive amounts of ordnance, including nuclear weapons, on Iran.
If we start a build-up in the region, then it’s on. They’re not going to send 200,000 troops to the Persian Gulf and not use them.
I’m not talking about a troop build up. Even 120,000 will not be enough to pacify Iran. Though it likely could defeat the Iranian military, especially if the ROE was lax concerning collateral damage. I doubt that even the 120k soldier figure being floated around, has any where near enough supplies pre-positioned already. Just people talking out of their tears, as usual. Heck, as I am.
I’m saying they don’t have enough stuff there yet to blow up the things the US would likely want blown up. Like how the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia went. They probably do have enough to trash the ports the IRGC small craft operate from, as well as smash a few high value targets. Like Praying Mantis, which went on for quite awhile. Cruise missile diplomacy is also an option.
Be nice if everyone could stop it with the threats already.
Do you have more thoughts on this, or is your tongue firmly planted in your cheek?
Is there a good news source for tracking developments in this crisis?
Any speculations on who is mounting attacks? Iran would have no motive, just the opposite, I think. ISTM the attacker is likely to either be a terrorist group (Isis?) or a power trying to provoke war if the attacks are misattributed to Iran. What secret services are powerful enough to mount such attacks in a way that their involvement is undetectable? Russia? Israel? Saudis? All three countries have malignant governments now; which would have the biggest motive?
I assume ‘about’ was intended as ‘above,’ right?
I just wonder if this was done by an AutoSpeller … or if I have company with my peculiar typing aphasia.
May be a bit far-fetched, but if I were to go full conspiracy theorist I’d guess China. China has a vested interest in extending the United States’ “war allergy” by another decade or two (the deep aversion to war left by the bitter experience of Afghanistan and Iraq.) A quagmire in the Middle East would give China a decade or two of freedom to do things in Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the South China Sea without fear of U.S. interference.
By extension, Russia could also benefit as well; giving the U.S. a war allergy could prevent U.S. intervention on NATO’s behalf.
You’re referring to the Optical Internetworking Forum, right? Maybe something else? If it’s not the OIF please spell it out. Thanks!
Operation Iraqi Freedom. Specifically, the occupation of Iraq. Many, if not most of the deadlier pieces of Improvised Explosive Devices, such as Explosively Formed (Forged) Projectiles, were supplied by Iran, along with training by Iranian personnel, like their Qods Force. A lot of Americans died because of those.
Yeah, meant ‘above’.
This could be one of those “plant” stories to find out who their leakers are, but if this is accurate, then this WaPo report would seem consistent with what I’ve felt, which is that Trump isn’t nearly as keen to actually get it on as he is to talk tough. He loves his moments of “fire and fury”, he likes having his generals around, but he doesn’t want to be blamed for a military disaster. Even he knows he would never be forgiven for an embarrassing military failure.
It’s always risky to make assumption that Trump knows things.
Also - we’ve been over this time and time again - it’s risky to presume knowledge of what colossal missteps would make Trump’s base abandon him. Iran turns into a bloodbath? It’s because the libs wouldn’t be good sports and drop the pesky Mueller business.
This was somewhat interesting news:
That might explain the deployment of B-52s.
I wonder how big the missile is? It took B-52s or similar to carry the old CALCM or AGM-129 but something not that much smaller like JASSM-ER is capable of being carried by smaller aircraft like F-15Es. I think the F-35 can carry it, but not internally. I think.
Interesting that they’re able to generate such a strong microwave burst. I’m guessing some type of explosively-generated induced current?
The word “news” is working well above its pay grade here.
Yes, but the war-mongers will play him like an accordion, backing him into a corner where he feels compelled to act, probably with violent excess. The one certainty is that Trump will not conduct his foreign policy with any clear purpose or intelligence.
This right here. We can be sure Trump will choose whatever action he thinks will preserve his sorry ass. But whether he’s capable of weighing such actions on a complex international stage where simply bribing people won’t cut it… that’s an entirely untested matter. So far it doesn’t look promising.