So…what does everyone think about the chances of Bush invading Iran, possibly just before he leaves office? I can’t cite anything specific but it doesn’t mean the “clues” aren’t already out there. A close friend with strong military ties has indicated that we may be ramping up for an invasion. Frankly, this has me quite worried. Anyone care to join in?
Guess it’s that time of the month again…
There will not be an invasion of Iran. There may be one of those so-called surgical strikes, but absolutely no ground invasion and no attempt to forcibly overthrow the government there. I’m willing to bet anyone who thinks othewise, and I’m sure **Ravenman **will be along shortly to make the same offer. We simply don’t have the forces to do so, and Congress absolutely wouldl not authorize it even if we did.
Iran has 3 or 4 times the population of Iraq, is extremely mountainous, and the population would be almost 100% against a US invasion-- unlike the Iraqis, who were largely happy to see us liberate them, even if they quickly soured on the occupation.
no, not again
Although somebody in that thread did post
Not by us.
What Israel wll do…? <shrugs>
You have any evidence that they ever welcomed us? And no, staged events guarded by US troops like the famous statue scene don’t count. Bombing people in “shock and awe” campaigns and then conquering them, after years of embargos and bombing isn’t a good way to win them over.
As for the OP; I don’t know if Bush will actually invade Iran with say, a small sacrificial force; the argument “it won’t work” doesn’t wash, because this is Bush we are talking about. I consider the odds better than even that Bush will do something to get us in a war with Iran, in order to commit the next President to one, and further nail us down there.
looks at the calender
Oh good…only a few more months for folks to wring their hands over Bush invading Iran and then we can move on to something else!
I think snowballs have a better chance in hell at this point. As I’ve said in the 5000 other threads on this very topic in the last year, we don’t have anything to invade Iran with. Air strikes? Yeah, that COULD happen, though even there I doubt it. But invasion?
I gage the probability as approaching zero right now.
There are no such clues (which is part of the problem unfortunately). We are not currently staging equipment into the Middle East. There are no large transfers of men, supplies, heavy equipment, etc. Those are the ‘clues’ that indicate an invasion.
Seriously…just look at the last few of these kinds of wars the US engaged in. Did we invade at the drop of a hat? No…we basically took months to get the logistics in place, to move everything we needed into the theater. We aren’t doing that now.
-XT
Bush is currently circulating through the EU asking the powers there to keep a hard line on Iran’s nuclear programs. Bush / France
Meaning 2 things: This US administration won’t do a thing.
Europe has a golden opportunity to move from passive acquiescence to full scale logistical and technical support for Iran’s programs, so that the US has a crystalline view of its current global standing.
And for the OP? No, it is physically impossible that the US will invade. It won’t happen. But it will be very interesting to see what happens once Bush is out of office. Virtually no nation on the globe supports Iran’s ambitions, as Iran’s current Thug-in-chief was largely a result of antipathy directed at Bush.
Nobody really wants to see the world’s primary sponsor of international terrorism gain a very strong deterrent against retaliatory strikes. To say nothing of the possibility of some faction being willing to sit in a bunker with their families and ‘fight to the last Iranian plebe’, coming out only once the world’s largest glass parking lot has been created.
Most ME nations are varying degrees of freaked the fucked out, to the point where the Saudis have just convinced Bush to give them nuclear technology/aid (gee, how could that bite us in the ass?)
Europe, which has already been extensively penetrated by Hezbollah, certainly has no desire to aid Iran. Russia seems to be doing so as a ‘fuck you’ to the US and as part of the Great Game. China seems to be trying to balance things as well in that respect.
But invasion, without at least a first strike on Iran/Hezbollah’s part? Naw, not going to happen. Even in that case, we’d nuke them, no invasion.
People are getting way to comfortable with nuking . That should not be an option . War is the failure of diplomacy. These guys eschew diplomacy as if it were immasculating. They should talk to Iran as soon as possible. Save us from another unneeded war.
We’ve been talking with Iran.
For years now.
Via high level diplomatic contacts.
It’s been all over the news.
For years.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17327091/ This is a pretty typical article. We want to talk about suspending nuclear enrichment. But, in order for us to come to the table they have to stop enrichment. If they do ,what is there to talk about. The only hammer they have they should give away before we sit down. Wonder why a nice public negotiation is impossible.
You think the cost of oil is high now? Just wait until the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It’s just 21 miles wide, and some 20% of the worlds oil flows through it every day. Shut off that steady stream of tankers, and inside of a month we’ve got idle refineries.
Pull it up on Google maps (or Google Earth). You can also look in the dictionary under ‘choke point’ – there’s a picture. 
All of Iran’s oil flows through there, too, or it would be more tempting for them to shut it down. Iran admittedly has anti-ship and mining capabilities at the ready there.
Iran building a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, that’s something to worry about. Nukes? Sure, I worry about those, but the only country in history stupid enough to use them is us.
We have had back door discussions. I want a sit down with neighboring countries involved. I want top diplomats and an honest effort to avoid war.
Seems to me that the administration needs to cover its butt with a status of forces agreement before they can stage even airstrikes. Maliki’s words on friday suggest that SOFA isn’t going to happen anytime soon, so I think the clock’ll run out even on bombing.
Yeah, I think so to. But there is always an outside chance we COULD launch a surgical strike on Iran, though I think it’s a pretty low order of probability at this point.
The chances of us invading Iran are essentially zero though. There are no ‘clues’ indicating we could invade a large Cub Scout meeting today, let along Iran. For the last few years the ‘OMG! We are about to Invade Iran™!’ gang have simply ignored how the US fights wars in the modern age and wrung their hands over this phantom possibility because simply put they don’t have a clue how the US DOES fight modern wars. They don’t want to be bothered with the details.
-XT
No, they are simply paying attention to the fact that we have an incompetent fool in the White House, with a long string of amazing bad decisions behind him. Nothing would stop Bush from just ordering the forces in Iraq over the border, without the logistics and support they would normally need. The fact that doing so would be a disaster would hardly bother him, and it WOULD accomplish the goal of getting us bogged down in a war with Iran whatever happened to the soldiers. And it’s not like he needs to fear consequences; he’s a lame duck, and there’s no chance that Congress would impeach him for anything short of shooting Congressmen.
Or, he could go the other direction and nuke Iran. And I’m sure people like you and John Mace would post about how you weren’t technically in the wrong about a war with Iran since there wasn’t a ground invasion. Which is one reason no one will take his bet.
Em , I think there is a gentlemans agreement in place that the president sticks to the defensive just before his term ends. All bets are off if Iran either does something militarily or is precieved to be a clear and present danger.
McCain might iniate a military action depending on what the situtation is at the time ,and O boy might do it by accident.
Declan
I am planning a holiday in Iran once the weather cools down in autumn. Hopefully I won’t be killed by bombs that were purchased with my own tax dollars.
And the odds that Bush cares about anything like that are ? I’d expect him to want to create as great a disaster as possible if it looks like Obama will win, and he has no hindering principles or scruples to restrain him.
Not sure why I’m bothering with you considering the subject…but it’s a slow night:
Which makes ‘they’ very bad at prediction, no? So…how many times are they going to cry wolf until we seem some teeth?
Nothing except reality…and the fact that the military neither could nor would honor that order. I think if Bush tried he would be treading on the thin ice of being removed for mental incompetence and instability.
This is so unlikely a scenario that the probability might as well be zero for this one. But hey, don’t let logic and reality get in the way of a good rant. Let’s pretend Bush COULD do this. My question to you (which was the question in the last, er, say 6 of these threads IIRC) is: Why hasn’t he done so? If he COULD do this then why hasn’t he? The situation in Iraq is no better than it was several years ago from the perspective of a silly invasion of Iran…in fact, it’s worse today as the equipment is all beat the shit (not to mention the troops), and a lot of the heavy stuff has been pulled out. We won’t get into that reality stuff that there aren’t any supplies that would enable us to invade Iran, that we haven’t forward deployed the fuel our gas guzzling tanks use (nor that most of those gas guzzling tanks are either not combat ready or aren’t IN Iraq anymore).
So…why has Bush not ordered a futile all out attack on Iran from the forces in Iraq if he could do so the way you indicate?
You are projecting here. It wouldn’t bother YOU…because you’d be able to smugly sit back vindicated in your assumptions and world view. Though I know you are unable to do this I’ll ask anyway…why do you think it wouldn’t bother BUSH? Do you think he would enjoy sending in US troops who wouldn’t have a chance and would most likely take very heavy casualties for little or no gain? Do you think he’d be immune from any repercussions? At the core, what indications do you have that Bush actually WANTS war with Iran…and what has prevented him from simply attacking them if he has the power to do so?
If he launched such a stupid and irrational war into Iran using the goofy counter-logic you indicate I can guarantee you he’d be impeached before the week was out. Any president who ordered what were essentially garrison troops with no heavy weapons, no logistics support, etc etc, to pull out of their garrison operations (probably while engaged with insurgents and AQ) and attempt a forced entry invasion of a nation like Iran (with gods know what casualties) and without any kind of authorization from Congress and the rather obvious apathy of the citizens…well, except in your own little Der Trihs fantasy world, that president would definitely be impeached, and IMHO most likely relieved of office for being unfit to continue his duties as president.
Well no…he couldn’t. Not unless Iran launched an attack using WMD on the US first he couldn’t. Well…in the real world he couldn’t. Obviously you have some kind of alternative universe you are using to judge these things, so I couldn’t speak to that.
Well, first I’d have to check to see if there were any invisible flying unicorns in my garage, because obviously I slipped a cog and found myself in Der Trihs’averse. Scary place.
The thing is Der, IF the US simply nuked Iran unilaterally (there is a better probability that you will decide to calm down and speak rational in this thread that that…snowballs aren’t even in it) then the last thing I’d be worrying about personally is to split hairs over a technicality to win an argument on a message board. All hell would be breaking loose, and I’d be watching for the impeachment trials or to see Bush relieved of his office and put in a rubber room…and see the others who authorized such a thing go on trial.
Uhuh. I think that it’s because deep down inside most others know that the odds of the US attacking Iran are vanishingly small…whether we talk about invasion, air strike, nuclear weapons or 1920’s style death rays. An air strike (conventional) is the only one that has even a slim chance of happening while Bush is still in office…the rest are left wing fantasies that bear no similarity to reality.
My own offer of a bet still stands…a Pit thread for the loser who has to agree to go into the thread and eat crow about being wrong. If Iran is invaded or attacked by nuclear weapons before Bush is gone then I lose…otherwise I win. If the US attacks Iran with a conventional air strike we’ll call that one a draw…but if it’s Israel that strikes, you lose.
-XT