Without extensive testing we have no way to tell how many deaths attributed to other causes are COVID related. I’ll guess that come 2021, statistician well estimate the number of “excess” deaths which will give some idea of how much to blame on COVID. I’m pessimistic and thus pleased to be wrong but I’ll go with 11. That’s millions. In USA alone. Because [political potshot removed].
Why? Especially why is it more distasteful than all the morbid stuff you say you do?
You can be overly skeptical here. Every disease you ever heard of is underreported by this standard. But you can look at the testing regimes of different countries and make meaningful comparisons in the growth of the virus.
I don’t know if it’s an anomaly or because of 2 weeks of sheltering in place but the last 2 days were the same number of dead and today is half that. this could be the flattening of the first wave.
—date ---- per/day --total
3/15/2020— 69------ 69
3/16/2020— 24------ 93
3/17/2020— 22------ 115
3/18/2020— 39------ 154
3/19/2020— 63------ 217
3/20/2020— 85------ 302
3/21/2020— 46------ 348
3/22/2020— 71------ 419
3/23/2020— 126----- 545
3/24/2020— 230----- 775
3/25/2020— 138----- 913
3/26/2020— 264----- 1177
3/27/2020— 523----- 1700
3/28/2020— 527----- 2227
3/29/2020— 248----- 2475
Possibly weekend reporting again.
As others have mentioned, there are several unknowns that would make it very difficult to come up with an accurate estimate. My semi-WAG comes out to about 150K excess deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 respiratory issues, assuming there is no second wave of infection this autumn. I of course would be very happy if this turns out to be a large overestimate.
Around here people are definitely taking it seriously. Even major streets are largely empty and there is practically no traffic, even at rush hour or peak weekend errand-running times. Public transportation is quite empty. Lots of friends who use services like Instacart are reporting that it’s practically impossible to get a delivery time slot, even if you try at 2:00 am. I hope that’s representative of the rest of the country, but of course have no way of knowing.
Oddly yes. This smacks of cheerleading.
But the flu generally kills about 50,000 people in America each year.
Coronavirus is far more deadly and more infectious.
5-20% of Americans get the flu each year. For coronavirus, it could be 20-70% of people who get it.
Also the death rate isn’t known, but figures of the coronavirus being anywhere from 5 up to 20 or more times more deadly than the flu are considered serious answers.
OK, that’s just bizarre, but you do you. Honestly I find this far less morbid and disturbing than your mass killings obsession.
Will the oncoming summer weather alone slow the virus?
I do not want those people to be forgotten. I do not want these horrible crimes to be overlooked. I want people to know the extent of the problem so that we might solve it.
It’s not a prediction I’d be boasting later about having gotten it right, if I managed to do that.
So even if I had a fucking clue about how bad this is going to get, I wouldn’t be making a prediction.
And yeah, despite being the reigning SDMB Death Pool champ, I’m finding this just a bit too grisly.
No idea how hoping specific people die is on a higher moral plane, but whatever.
Higher moral plane? Did not allude to this in any way. Try again.
Well, it’s not.
Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. You are literally having fun waiting for people to die.
Here in a small city in Wisconsin, most people have been taking it very seriously, for at least the last 12 to 15 days. Our county infection number has gone up from 5 to 16 in that time, with (I believe) just one death so far. So, our social distancing does seem to be keeping the rate of infection from getting out of control, around here.
Just a positive-news anecdote from a place far from any “hotspot.” (We are between Minneapolis and Chicago/Milwaukee, several hours’ drove from either metropolis).
Indeed, our impression was that certain “hotspots” were slower to take this seriously than we were (e.g., New York City’s delay in closing schools).
It depends on whether we listen to the scientists who tell us to stay the fuck at home, or listen to MAGAts who want us to go back to work and school ASAP. Look at the example of California, which sheltered early and flattened their progress, vs. states that are ignoring the problem and agitating for business as usual by late April.
If we’re smart and persevere through the lockdown for 6-12 months, we can hold the deaths down to 200-300k.
If we follow the MAGAts over the cliff and re-open in time for summer, look for a rebound epidemic that dwarfs anything we’ve seen so far. At least a million deaths , and the medical system starts collapsing as nurses and doctors start walking off the job because they can’t take it anymore. Medical schools can’t pump out replacement professionals fast enough to make up the difference.
I’m blessed to work from home, so I’m digging in for the long haul, but I’m frightened for the people who don’t have that option and may be prematurely forced back to work.
When confronted with a problem it seems useful and sensible to me to assume the worst possible outcome as a working hypothesis. So number 7 it is.
Last Friday the first person I knew personally died, a colleague. They say that when 2% die, everybody knows somebody who has died. I am already there and the curve is not flattening yet. Anecdotical? Perhaps. But that may change and become common. And the situation in my country (Germany) seems to be much better than in the USA. That may change too.