There are countries with warm weather right now and what is happening there does not look encouraging. I think the Financial Times site (not paywalled) is informative in this regard. Have a look at the Philipines, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Brazil, India, Indonesia… and factor in the more than probable underreporting.
Maybe it is. I didn’t say it wasn’t.
I’d say ‘try again’ but I’ve read my quota of CarnalK posts for today.
Thank god. Your love for purposely missing the point gets old fast.
Yes your omnibus thread is going to solve mass murder… :rolleyes:
When are you starting one on gang rape?
I agree with ** CarnalK**. Purposely picking a list of people that you hope will die so you can “win” a contest seems much more disturbing than trying to assess, as a factual matter, how bad a public health emergency will get.
I think we are looking at about 400,000 deaths over 2 years
Moderator Warning
That’s well over the line. This is an official warning for being a jerk.
Colibri
Quarantine Zone Moderator
Moderator Note
Knock off the personal jabs. If you are uncomfortable with this topic, there is no need to participate in this thread or cast aspersions on those who do.
This goes for everyone. I haven’t gone back to look for additional snark but if you have a beef with someone’s remarks take it to the Pit.
Colibri
Quarantine Zone Moderator
If I had to bet, I’ll go with option 2.
You misquoted or something because I was not the person expressing discomfort with this topic.
Moderator Note
This is rather ironic given your jab about “purposely missing the point,” My instruction was to knock off the personal jabs for whatever reason.
If you have further comment on my moderation take it to ATMB.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
168,785 is my prediction.
It seems like every time they revise projections, they go down. So I’m optimistically going to say 100-200K, since that is what Faucci is saying now best case scenario.
This is, assuming, that that the just FDA approved hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work.
If it does work, I could see it going down to 50K.
I go with #2: 50k to 100k
:rolleyes: So if this drug works on something it wasn’t design for then it could save 75% of cases. Yes, everything is possible but it’s pretty silly to even guess the effectiveness of some completely untested drug.
For total deaths to stay below 50k, we need some sharp drop off in growth pretty damn quick.
If you hit that bang on, you win the other contestant’s Showcase Showdown prizes.
If the assumption is 100K deaths on the low end without it, then 75% of the remaining 95K deaths is 71,250 lives saved. This will likely not be administered to every single patient, but 50K is well out of “eyeroll” territory imho, considering a best-case scenario basis. I guess we’ll find out by the end of the year.
The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths.
I’ll respond in14 days but I think 50k is eye roll worthy. That’s a fairly normal flu season.
Part of the utility of this exercise is that we can test the predictions in smaller than nationwide scales to see if the model has any validity. IF the approach I am using is correct then New York State will level off somewhere below 5000 deaths (250/million * 19.54 million population), and NYC itself a bit below 2150, flattening the rate of new deaths/d off fast near 1800. (Latest report 1218 for New York State and 790 in NYC.) If correct the slope of New York State (they do not graph NYC alone) on the log graph should start to flatten over the next several days and by 5 days from now (4/4) have dropped from a geometric growth of 1.33 to more like 1.20 and down to 1.10ish in another 5 days (4/9).
If it blows past that and goes well beyond 250 deaths/million, then my approach is clearly falsified.