Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War

Briefly speaking to the gas price sidetrack (hint hint)

Basically, Americans at least with our car culture are dong what they can to reduce driving to offset costs. See also the reports on various Rideshare/food delivery options leaving in droves due to the increases in underlying costs.


Predictions about the Iran War as related to the above - it would be absolutely in Iran’s interest to draw out the ongoing lower-grade attacks, demands on shipping, et al. at a minimum through the USA midterms. If rising costs (to @CaveMike’s point that the final pre-war deliveries are done which may cause ANOTHER spike) contribute to a governmental changeover in the Legislature, then it’s likely that Trump’s actions will be curtailed (not eliminated, but curtailed).

They likely won’t be able to get good-faith negotiations worked out, but if the House has an infusion of spine, not funding Trump’s Pet Peeve is a real win for the Regime. Though of course, it’ll give Trump the perfect “out” - “I would have won the greatest peace ever but the Demon-rats held back our glorious military!”

I’m not saying Iran is, or ever should trust the USA regardless of the party in power, but they may be willing to give some concessions (that Trump will of course, try to ixnay) to Democrats, who can similarly try to reset some relations while throwing Trump under the bus for all the bad faith efforts.

Do I think it would work? Probably not - as long as Trump controls the executive, lasting peace or honest negotiation is going to stall. At best it’s the weak trope of “the enemy of my enemy may be my ally of the moment” - And by the time Trump is out of office (:crossed_fingers:) they may well be in a position of sufficient power in the region that they have no need, and no reason to compromise on their control because they suspect (correctly I believe) that Democrats have no willingness to continue to try to force a new peace when there are so many issues at home.