Predictions involve what will happen. Pros make forecasts, which are probabilistic. Scenario evaluation is also topical, as is the gaming out of events.
Trump threatens to destroy the Iran civilization with a deadline of 8PM tonight, 7 April 2026. There’s a TACO solution. Bomb a number of bridges, bomb a number of power plants with repairable damage, declare the Iranian civilization destroyed, and get out. The idea is to end it with a bang. Better make the power plant pinpricks obvious to the Iranians, because they will retaliate. Hope they do so roughly proportionally. This is a reasonable hope, as they have done so in the past.
Problem: this doesn’t solve the Straits of Hormuz problem. Glaring weakness. Which means that the Get Out part of the above won’t happen.
There’s another TACO solution of course. Lie that the Iranians have offered concessions in talks. That’s Trump’s go-to. I put the odds of that at well over 1/6, probably above the odds of any other of a handful of scenarios. Trump is getting bored though, so there are limits to the kick-the-can option, which is why I’d place the odds of this under 2/3.
Earlier today I predicted a brutal bombing campaign after the ultimatum expired.
Now I’m mostly thinking about your first TACO solution, the prize of oil is slowly going down, there’s talk about Pakistani mediation, and the general mood of the news seem to point that way.
But I’ll guess we’ll know for sure in about 3 hours.
I think there’s a minor disconnect in the discussion. Oh, it’s probably dead on for Trump and his options, but it doesn’t mention what IRAN will choose.
Trump only sees unconditional “wins” for himself, and/or punishing those who have dared question or work against him. No matter what Trump does in the next few hours, Iran has no reason to go along with him, in fact, more reason to NOT do so - the regime is likely to remain in power securely thanks to Trump with everyone dying or suffering as a martyr. No, not everyone in Iran agrees, but enough do to keep the regime in more stable power than they were during and after the crackdowns on the protestors.
Outside boots on the ground and/or NCBR weapons, nothing Trump is doing is going to eliminate Iran’s possibilities of at least sporadic attacks in the Straight. It’s going to continue, along with the consequential shortages/price hikes, even if Trump and Fox pretends we got the win. And even if MAGA-USA decides to stick their heads in the sand about the new normal, the rest of the world is going to have to deal with it.
This is the one I agree with… Seems he’s telegraphing that one now. I note that the Iranians have said that they are not negotiating, and in fact have cut off all communication about this, even with 3rd party intermediaries.
While I’m sure Pakistan is really trying to cool off the rhetoric and come up with a diplomatic solution, I’m not sure that Iran is even talking to anyone there at this point.
Sure. His problem is no one else who counts will go along with the lie and make it look like he’s imposing his will and winning, and celebrate him for it.
Yes, of course, and I think this is the most likely scenario. Big Booms that can be played endlessly as ‘proof’ that Donald Did Exactly What He Said He Would!!!1!!!. (He won’t have come anywhere close, of course.)
Then claims of “capitulation” from the Iranian regime.
Of course the Iranians will go on charging tolls for access to the Strait—a new business that Donald has gifted to them.
This may drive him crazy, especially since he has no way to get any money from any of these transactions. When he realizes that, especially after he has already declared victory, it’s hard to know what he might do.
I think you’re quite right that this presents a special danger. Donald HATES it when he can’t get in on a grift—and the thought that he gave them the means to rake in the cash would torture him.
Iran needs to impose a hefty prize on the U.S. in general and Trump in particular for this attack, otherwise they’ll just do it again and again until they lose power or Iran finally cracks.
I would guess they will try to keep Brent Oil above 100 USD for enough time to provoke a smallish economic recession.
As I write this (5:46PM Central time, 4/7/2026), NBC News just broke into a commercial break to announce that Dementia J. Trump has announced a 2-week ceasefire.
The supposed cease-fire requires Iran to open the strait immediately. Not sure why they’d give up their main leverage so I guess we’ll see what any actual agreements are.
Certainly a possibility. I think announcing it without an agreement in place, then resuming attacks when “Iran refuses to negotiate!” as a way to get more support for the war makes more sense then Iran just letting ships through on Trump’s word.