Chances are, he’ll forget everything by 8PM anyway. (When I made my last post, they hadn’t mentioned the contingencies yet.)
I think Pakistan has been working hard on this. Separately, so has Oman.
Now it’s off for two weeks, pending negotiation.
I think Pakistan has been working hard on getting anyone in Iran to actually talk to them lately.
NYT:
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement that the Iranians would “cease their defensive operation,” and that “for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible” if coordinated with Iran’s military.
Israel has also agreed to the cease-fire and will suspend its strikes on Iran for two weeks, a White House official said.
The cease-fire buys both sides time to try to reach a longer-term end to the war, which began at the end of February with the United States and Israel subjecting Iran to a withering military assault.
Me: I suspect Iran will charge tolls. $30 a barrel sounds about right to me. Plus in effect full ability to export their oil. Pro forma sanctions remain in place; actual sanctions dwindle away over time. No formal restitution to Iran.
Nuclear program? Continuing attacks on Israel? Kick the can down the road.
Reportedly the deal is removing sanctions + $2M a ship toll to be split w/ Oman (this would be ~10% and ~40% GDP boost respectively) plus the US and Israel leaving Iranian allies (Lebanon) alone. The US gets nothing out of the deal that it didn’t have before the war. Just a complete and total fuckup.
Huh, why Oman? Just the geography?
This needs a short clever undeniable re-phrasing that can be plastered all over social media from now through the election.
Come on, this board had some very smart and snarky (smarky?) people on it, I’ll bet it can come from here.
Hmmm.
“The US was Trumped”?"
“Blather, Bomb, Bail Out”?
“Trumpism is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
In my family we just call it “Trump wanting credit for ‘fixing’ a problem that he caused.”
Yes, geography. Look at a map. Also Oman has been a conciliator and deal-cutter during this conflict. Not surprised that UAE is missing out.
ETA: Iran proposed a toll deal within the past week. I can’t find anything reputable online saying it’s part of the current deal. Corrections welcome.
“The Trump Cycle”
24 hours back I thought Trump would escalate bombing for a few days and then try for a deal. I am somewhat baffled by the sudden ceasefire and there seems to be some confusion about what the actual terms are so of course the ceasefire could easily collapse. This has been a truly baffling war from start to hopefully finish which is what you get I suppose when an unhinged idiot runs the show.
An unhinged idiot with no plan; it’s obvious that Trump and company just YOLOed into the war without any clear goal or any plan for what to do if Iran didn’t just instantly and totally submit to those undefined goals. It makes no sense because at base, there’s no sense to make; just an idiot who jumped in without a plan and spent the ensuing debacle flailing around cluelessly.
Forecast evaluation:
I was right about tolls (which had been in the works for a week, though I didn’t know that when I wrote the above), but they are quite a bit lower. Daily Beast works off of reporting in the Financial Times:
“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the Strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” Hosseini said. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush.”
According to Hosseini, tankers will have to email Iranian authorities about their cargo, and once informed of the required toll, they must pay it in digital currencies that can’t be seized or blocked by sanctions. The tariff is $1 per barrel of oil.
I suspect paying higher fees might allow faster processing, particularly by unfavored countries, but as of now I was off by an order of magnitude. Josh Marshall of TPM suggested why a day ago:
Coming into today I had been meaning to write a post on all the ways in which, while this is not going great for the United States, it’s not going very well for Iran either. Iran can say it will be collecting tolls on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Doing it is another matter. As much as the U.S. is trashing the international system, these are still international waters. The first time Iran sends someone a toll bill and they don’t pay, does Iran attack that tanker? After hostilities have ceased? Do they want to start the war all over again?
If Iran is limiting payment to low single digits per barrel of oil, I would think that shippers would play along.
The open solicitation of crypto represents a weakening of sanctions on Iran.
There is no written deal. TPM summarizes the situation here. Tolls in place of $2 million per ship. Lloyds saying that shippers are reluctant to jump in for now. Iran’s 10 point plan is a rehashing of what they’ve demanded for the past month. The Farsi version includes acceptance of their nuclear program.
I think the goal is a multi-year strategy of regime change by the US and Israel.
Each time the war picks up again, Iran gets a little bit weaker. Also I’m sure there are lots of US and Israeli intel agents on the ground in Iran doing sabotage missions, trying to arm insurgents, etc.
Even when this war ends, it’ll just pick up again in 6 months. I don’t think the US or Israel will stop until the regime goes away.
And the government gets stronger. It’s just another forever war, assuming your assumption of the goal is correct.
Also, it’s an impossible goal short of genocide or installing a puppet dictator with permanent occupation troops to support them since any non-puppet “regime” there is going to hate both the US and Israel. Both nations have worked hard to ensure that.
“multi-year”??
Hasn’t Trump already declared victory a few different times, and stated that this wouldn’t take long?
(And also, with much red faced foot stomping “open the fucking Strait already!!”)
No, there is no strategy at all, let alone a multi-year strategy.
Whatever toll system is set up, it would not surprise me if there was some deal being arranged where a certain percentage of any toll finds its way to Trump or his family. That’s certainly what I would do, if I was running Iran. Trump will do anything to increase his personal wealth. His only principle is “How can I get more?”