To be pedantic, it’s “hefty price”.
The one thing Iran could do now which would IMHO roger its negotiating hand seeking to win most of their 10 points is to launch some terrorist attack on the US. That would simply galvanise the US, escalate the war and reverse 45/47 approval ratings.
Correct, thanks.
Yes that would be counterproductive at this time (or possibly always).
We will have to wait and see if the past (and continuing) disruption to commerce caused by the closure of the Strait is enough to dissuade Trump and company from attacking Iran again in few months (or days!).
They, or some other nation might well consider it a good idea if it looks like Trump will actually lose power. It’s in the interests of any enemy of the US to keep Trump in power as long as possible, so he does as much damage as possible.
I wouldn’t expect it anytime soon from Iran, though; things appear to be going too well from their perspective to want to throw a wrench into the works. I suspect for a while they’ll try to play “we’re the reasonable and honest ones” diplomatic card and let Trump do the work of actually making it look plausible by comparison.
Because if there’s one thing Trump’s behavior has been highlighting, it’s the importance of actually being able to make deals with other nations and stick to them.
I predict the cease-fire won’t make it to two weeks, in fact…
Oh, look, it’s starting to break down already.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5777291/iran-war-updates
While I don’t believe for one second Trump is incapable of such behavior, I doubt he’s coming out ahead in whatever deal has been or might be made. Assuming this ceasefire even lasts long enough to turn into peace, it appears as though Iran may actually end up stronger for the war in the long term. I don’t think Iran would agree to a deal that sees Trump or his family lining their own pockets.
I wonder about our various alliances in the Mid-East region. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and others aren’t going to be happy with their enemy Iran becoming even more powerful which makes me wonder what their relationship with Trump will turn to. They’ve just learned a harsh lesson that even if you bribe Trump you can’t rely on him to take care of complicated issues. (I heard a joke Qatar asked for their jet back.)
We’re seeing the collapse of the old order established following the end of the Second World War. I see a future where NATO either collapses or the United States is isolated and plays a small role in it. Trump in a hissy fit is threatening to pull a base or two from Germany or Spain. There are so many changes in motion, it’s hard to make any decent prediction.
There’s one prediction I think is most likely. The United States will be weaker both militarily and economically.
I think it would be funny if Iran agreed to the deal confidentially, and then didn’t pay Trump. What’s he going to do - complain in a tweet that he didn’t get his secret bribe?
Of course he would complain, and volubly so.
Nor would he be bothered about making it secret, he’d brag about it.
Just like he divulged classified military intelligence to spice up his press conferences.
He hasn’t shied away, indeed is brazen about his efforts to monetorise the Presidency.
Can’t have these low IQ folks from shit hole countries taking liberties.
Pretty much what I expected. I can’t see any way Netanyahu won’t sabotage this or any ceasefire until the Iranian regime is gone.
sorry Parallel it’s “straits” not “Straights”
What is the basis of your prediction? It appears to me like a wild guess that is entirely inconsistent with the behavior and judgment shown by this administration.
I think it’s safe to say that whatever happens with the present situation, a malignant narcissist with dementia wouldn’t be capable of engaging in some long term “strategic” plan even if they wanted to (which Trump doesn’t). Whatever Trump does, it’ll be short sighted, poorly thought out, and either selfish or motivated by malice. That’s literally all he does.
So, what does that mean? Hopefully he’ll decide that further fighting just makes him look bad, in which case he’ll be looking to find some way to profit from the situation. Probably he’ll try to grab the proposed tolls for himself. He’s been talking about it as a “joint venture”, which in TrumpSpeak means he thinks he can cut the Iranians out and take all the money for himself.
ABC News’s Jonathan Karl asked Trump if he approved of Iran’s plan to charge vessels a fee for passing through the strait — a key channel through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil is transported.
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” the president told Karl, who shared Trump’s response on social platform X. “It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.”
I think it is quite realistic that Trump is just 7 or 8 months shy of becoming obsolete.
the GOP will lose the midterms bigly (mostly BECAUSE of Trump) … so he wont have any leverage anymore on GOP-puppets… (do what I say or I’ll endorse another candidate puppet … there wont be any ENDORSEEs interested in sucking up anymore) … so this blackmailing mechanism will run out on its own. I can even see a good number of GOP saulus-to-paulus-converts trying to whitewash their name for history books.
It will get ugly once DJT realizes experiences this … expect lots of toddler-fits-and-footstomping for the 2nd half of his presidency, but I think Congress will be strong enough to neuter him.
The leverage he will have is “Maybe I will pardon you, maybe I won’t. Do you want to spend 20 years in prison or continue to serve me?”
Not to mention the fear of being physically attacked by his MAGA cultists.
To my ear, that reminds me of a famous rebuke i.e.:
Toddler-fits-and-footstomping is just another Tuesday for Donald Trump. I’m a little more concerned he might try something a bit more radical if he feels his power slipping away. He already sent ICE into Minnesota to strong arm them, he’s become more comfortable using our military, and of course he incited his followers to attack the capitol in 2021. I’m not sure what he’ll do and I’m not confident there are enough people to tell him no.
Supposedly the blockade (the U.S. one… sigh) starts in an hour or so, but again I’m not seeing the price of oil reflecting that, may be market is not yet open (I don’t know much about that kind of thinh) but otherwise, while there’s a significant jump from yesterday (from around $94 to around $100) there’s not the apocalyptic jump one would expect from a total blockade of the strait.
The price of crude is now over $103 a barrel. That’s over a 7% increase from yesterday.
And still climbing.
I expected it to be above 110 as it was in the height of Iran’s blockade, or more because now we’ll have the U.S. Navy blockading too.
For anybody who’s interested in real-time quotes, you can follow the price of most everything here: