Nice!, and updates in real time too.
And if you click in a commodity it provides an historical graph, great!
Thanks! it sure beats my method of googling “Brent oil price” and refreshing the page every time I wanted an update.
Now prices are going down (still up for today but down from their max values), 10 minutes before the new blockade starts, I don’t get it.
The blockade just started and brent is below $100, weird.
Trump stating that the US is going to blockade the Strait is not an indication that the US is going to blockade the Strait.
ETA: When you say that it has happened, did you see proof that it has?
I guess, but CENTCOM also said it.
I suppose the market is through being manipulated and is going into “wait and see” mode.
The Guardian and CNN say it has, but I think they are basing their announcement on the same info I have (CENTCOM and Trump’s words)
Don’t forget, tomorrow is TACO Tuesday.
I’m not saying that it won’t happen, just that I’m not taking Trump’s word. If it happens, and oil prices drop, I’ll have no explanation.
32 minutes later, Brent crude is at $100.7
I happened upon that site a few months ago. Now I look at it way more than I should!
I would think that if Iran blocking the Strait merited brent at $110 the U.S. AND Iran blocking the strait would merit at least the same price, but doesn’t seem to be the case.
This is what I was thinking. TACO is priced in, and the regular market players are tired of being abused for insider trading.
I see Trump is making noises about Iran asking for a deal again…
AIUI these are futures prices, which are currently significantly lower than spot prices, a situation known as backwardation. There might be a $10-$20 premium for oil that is available now (spot price) vs. some time in the future.
Futures price includes things that the spot price doesn’t, like storage and transportation. I think this complicates the supply and demand calculation when storage is empty (now) or full (during the pandemic when price was negative).
Brent and WTI indexes have been tracking the crisis, but technically I think the Dubai crude from Platt reflects the oil from the Gulf. I’ve been looking at prices on this site, but Dubai hasn’t been updated for 3 days. It’s possible it only gets updated at the end of the day.
This is an article from March 19 discussing the then current state of backwardation.
Backwardation has real-world consequences. When spot prices are much higher than future prices, storing oil becomes unattractive: Traders are better off selling barrels now than holding them. That pushes inventory out of tanks and into the market. For investors holding long futures, the shape of the curve actually helps: As they sell an expensive expiring contract and buy a cheaper next-month contract, they earn a positive roll yield. The biggest winners, however, are the players who can do what the futures market cannot: deliver a real barrel into this shortage.
(Disclaimer: All armchair comments, this isn’t an area of expertise for me)
In “The Rest is Politics - USA” podcast (ep 177 dropped 14/4/26)
Host Scaramucci is joined by veteran diplomat Richard Haass.
Now Richard has an extensive CV in US foreign relations, serving in 4 administrations to my understanding. His perspective is that the US blockade of Hormuz is a good thing. Indeed that he came up with the very idea himself. A much better strategy he argued than taking military action. He acknowledges for that venture there were no new intelligence developments that could justify the military action.
Which shows how disconnected and far up their USA-centric arse even the pundits who disagree with 45/47 are.
The US, presumably without consultation simply blockades Hormuz to;
- force Iran to back to the negotiating table for a US point list essentially identical to the JCPOA which the US walked away from and
- Impose an energy crisis on Asia/SE Asia to persuade Chaina/Japan et al to intercede with Iran on the US’s behalf and benefit.
- We won’t worry about committing a war crime in the form of a blockade.
- Our mess, your problem, you fix.
“Look at me. We break the toys and throw them out of the crib in protest that there aren’t enough toys in the crib.” Spoilt brat theory writ large.