Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War

Iran has the stronger negotiating position and has for months - they’ve essentially won this war, and dragging it out just increases Trump’s personal desperation to find a way out. They may have even calculated that they can keep this going until a new president comes in in '29 who will have the political mandate to apologize for the war, functionally surrender to Iran, and normalize a diplomatic and financial relationship.

Imagine how the '28 election campaign will go if the war is still continuing like this, with American stocks totally depleted and gas prices having risen for multiple years - every Democrat will be insisting this was Trump’s stupid war, that it was a catastrophic mistake to even entertain the idea of war, that we should apologize to Iran and openly admit we lost. For a new administration, Iran might drop the tolls in exchange for no more sanctions, an end to the US alliance with Israel (likely coming anyway, at least in some form), some reparations, an apology, and normal diplomatic and trade relations