It’s yet another example of the inherent unpredictability of war (and why it should only be entered as an absolute last resort, IMO). Though this particular consequence was more predictable than many others.
Big picture; the world is quite accustomed by now to the US losing wars (talk about failing up). I think WWII was the last war that the US won, perhaps the cold war is another one in the win column.
Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan… none of those wars can be considered wins for the US. Yet, the world continued to respect the military and economic power of the US. I feel reasonably confident that will remain so after this debacle.
It will take time to restore the US political standing. Obviously the Trump administration will have to go and a more sane administration assume leadership before that can begin to occur.
If I had to guess, before 2026 they thought something along the lines of “if we ever closed the strait, America would do something drastic… like assassinate our head of state”
Every loss is a hit to our reputation. This is just the latest but also the dumbest and most pathetic, IMO, and therefore the most damaging (again, IMO).
I think this will end up being the straw that broke the camel’s back in terms of the post WW2 era of the US as the preeminent power and essential guarantor of stability (as flawed as it was). The US can’t and shouldn’t be trusted anymore as an ally of democracy and human rights in any sense. Even another 8 years of Obama style (or FDR style, or whomever you’d prefer) leadership won’t be able to fix this. No one will be able to trust we won’t get another dangerous chaos-clown in office again, not for decades at least.
I fucking wish. We’re not that lucky.
Here’s where I’m more of an optimist.
I’ll say that I don’t think Iran are run by mercantilists who think this is a long-term benefit to their country.
Iran is going to be set back with a lot of domestic issues including ones the regime wouldn’t have wanted to maintain stability. I think their primary motive was to deter their adversaries from ever trying a regime change operation like this in the future, and their persisting both as a bargaining chip to get sanctions relief and other concessions and because they’ve been pushed into being at least temporary mercantilists who need to play zero sum power politics against their neighbors.
But I wouldn’t say all of this amounts to any strategic benefit of weakening the regime. While rebuilding their economy will take a long time, we gave them a huge boon in consolidating power domestically and emboldened their proxies. Not to mention revealed their gulf neighbors to be weak and dependent on the US (who they also revealed doesn’t actually take their security all that seriously).
Domestically, they have become much more brutal, but I believe that brutality makes the IRGC more brittle in the long term.
With respect to their proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah are significantly diminished. The Houthies are enjoying their day in the sun but I suspect not for much longer.
Which may in turn cause them to rethink their complacency with respect to Iran. Maybe even consider a NATO-like alliance.
Has the 2026 war in particular hurt Hamas at all?
How can you be so sure about this? Today, as has been the case for about 15 years, everyone realizes the threat they pose to their neighbors and global trade, but the only people actually willing to do anything about it are too weak and ineffective.
So the argument is that this war has been such a loss for Iran’s enemies that it might in the future inspire them to make reforms so that they wont lose as badly later? And that means it’s a win?
I believe Iran is in a position now where their ability to provide arms and money to proxies is significantly impaired. So Hamas and Hezbollah will have trouble re-constituting to their previous levels.
Well, the Saudis are firing back. It’s no longer the stalemate it was even a couple of weeks ago.
Even with the most pessimistic assumptions, I doubt they are going to be seeking out strategies to lose less badly.
Moderating:
A reminder for @bengangmo - this thread is about Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War. Not for general rants about Trump and America, which belong in the pit. I’ve hidden the parts of the first post that were a general rant and your second which was nothing but. I did leave in the first part which was more-or-less applicable to the thread.
Again, reminder to all, if your entire post is a rant, it probably belongs in the Pit. Especially (!) if it’s an off-topic rant.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think right now the dynamic is about the same as in every other flare-up with the houthis - the Saudis themselves are only attacking from the air, and on the ground it’s the Houthis vs the Saudi-backed government of Yemen plus some anti-Houthi non-state actors.
I’d argue that we did win all of those wars. What we lost was the aftermath of the initial invasion. I get the impression that Iran is / would be substantively different than what most living Americans are used to (the easy initial invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq followed by long insurgencies). I suspect that that Iran would look more like something out of WW2 in terms of how much effort the United States would have to exert to succeed in a land invasion.
Methinks they would have been as resistant and defiant and employed similar strategies were 45/47 popular stateside.
The popularity I was referring to was around the world, especially with our allies. And I wasn’t talking about Iranian strategy – I’m talking about how world perception of Iran has changed now that they’ve clearly won. Now they’re the little country that stood up to an asshole warmongering US president that everyone hates and made him look like a loser chump.
One more prediction - after this war, many countries will cozy up to Iran to ensure they get preferential treatment through the Strait, and to ensure their ships aren’t targets should another conflict break out. Widespread trade sanctions with Iran will diminish or even end.
That’s fine and dandy but outside the four walls of this message board and it’s ilk, when last did the US act outside it’s self-interest for the sake of popularity around the world?
50% plus of voting Americans have unequivocally demonstrated that they are absolutely fine with screwing over their allies … and even after seeing the inevitable/foreseeable consequences of that sociopolitical strategy, 38% still are. And it’s only that “low” because gas is USD4/gal.
What does this have to do with anything? Under Trump we’re acting against our self interest because of Trump’s incompetence and corruption.
Well that’s your edumacation.
You are getting a taste of the embuggerance the non-merkin rest of us cope with.
I’ll let you in on a secret … it doesn’t feel any different when you are being screwed over whether the bastards in charge are competent or incompetent.
That’s my understanding as well.
It’s unlikely that the Saudis are going to enter a ground war against the houthis.
I still don’t see what any of what you’re saying has to do with the point I was making, which is that this war has helped the reputation of Iran, and engendered sympathy towards Iran.