SF and NY are getting lots of press these days about the same sex marriages taking place there, but what is not being well reported are the numerous efforts by some states to amend their various constitutions to disallow gay marriage.
I have no idea why this isn’t making the news more prominently. It’s a huge set-back for gays, and is much more significant than the effort to amend the US constitution (which I think has no chance of passing).
The purpose of this thread is **not ** intended for folks to weigh in on whether this is right or wrong, but to predict: Which states are going to ban gay marriage by passing consitutional amendments?
I suspect we’ll see this spread thru the South, most of the midwest, and a good portion of the Rocky Mtn states, pretty much following the “red state” pattern of the 2000 electoral map. I’d even give CA at least a 50/50 chance of passing an amendment, with a good possibility of this being a ballot initiative in Nov.
I conjecture that every state will in the next decade legalize gay marriage either by themselves or because of a Constitutional Amendment. It would seem inevitable that a movement thats getting so much media attention and has the potential to be the abolition/women’s suffrage/civil rights equivalent of our era to succeed. I can’t really find any sort of solid argument why this is so- only past examples, but the same question can be asked for those (Why did they succeed?) and only vague answers of circumstance are available.
So, you are predicting that the 4 states that have already amended their constitutions to make gay marriage illegal will enact new amendments to abolish the old ones? I find that highly improbable.
I don’t think Ohio will pass a constitutional amendment just yet. Gov. Taft has no popularity. Many very conservative people I know are sick of the whole gay marriage thing. With a state unemployment rate of 6.2%, social issues as a distraction aren’t going to work. Besides, the Republicans already passed a Defense of Marriage act.