The Boomers are getting old and starting to retire. A half century ago, they pushed America into a building boom of elementary schools, and created a great job market for teachers.
So it seems logical that now we’re going to need to have a building boom of old-age homes, and to hire a lot of nurses.
Is this happening?
If so, I haven’t noticed it. I haven’t seen many new facilities being built for the elderly. And I haven’t heard much about the medical profession re-orienting itself, with more staff training to care for the elderly.
(Yes, over the past years I have watched several elderly relatives fade into the abyss of senility, Alzheimer’s disease and helplessness. .They relied on existing institutions which had been built decades ago, and were full to capacity-- 10 years ago. What lies ahead? )
The concept of the “old folks home” is a thing of the past. The new model is to stay at home as long as possible and to utilize in home care as needed. Be that “Meals on Wheels” or a nurse coming in a couple of times a week to check in on you. One of the fastest growing and most stable jobs in this economy is home health care providers.
The number of retirement homes in the U.S. increased from 11,000 in 2003 to 12,000 in 2010. So in seven years that’s an increase of over 9%. That would mean that there’s been an increase of about 1.25% per year. You tell me whether that’s enough:
Having just gone through this with my in-laws I can tell you that senior living is hardly a thing of the past. It is a vast and flourishing industry. But it’s morphed into a variety of levels, from retirement communities to assisted living to nursing care facilities and probably a dozen other variations. A person can move up and down levels inside a facility as the need arises. It’s true that staying at home even on one’s own is a much better option than in the past, but so are hospices.
I doubt that we have enough for the future, but the oldest baby boomers are only 67. It will be a decade before more than a tiny percentage of those people need nursing care and the crush won’t hit until around 2030. Nobody has any idea whether we’ll be prepared then, though we’ve obviously got a huge amount of warning. Nobody knows what medicine itself will look like then. It’s a good question, but one that can’t be answered yet.