The only reason Trump has held the phone just now is because May and Macron have announced a partnered reaction. Trump is now in “take a step back and just do what the smart people are going to do” mode. He’s a real leader. Brave. Sad. Unfair.
Even if Assad has used Chemical weaponry and we have both radio intercepts and autopsied bodies, we should ignore it. We would be hitting the wrong people. If we wanted to end this charade, then we need to hit the Russians. No way Bashy would have done this, had he not had assurances that the Russians would back his play. The Russians are pissed because three hundred of their troops that were loaned to a Merc outfit, where killed for no appreciable gain, and if Putin wants to play cowboys and cossacks then double down and start Rolling thunder 3 and dare him to take it wider.
If not , then don’t waste western lives on someone that does not care about his own people.
Oh, that’s great! Thanks for the Friday morning laugh. I needed that.
Wait… you were serious?..
I was seriously asking a question, yes.
In that case my serious answer is: No, I have no reason to believe that there is any room in Trump’s severely flawed mind for humanitarian impulse. UNLESS, it is explained to him in a way that would benefit him as a result of having done the “right” thing.
Personally, I believe the main consideration in Trump’s mind about sending in troops is whether it might reduce the size of his parade.
In interesting news around the world this morning, the Russians claim the Brits helped stage the CW attack: https://www.rt.com/news/424047-russian-mod-syria-statement
When Daddy Putin gives him permission and approves the proposed bombing site, Donny will unleash some missiles. He’ll probably replace Sessions on the same day.
Thread title changed to reflect which President via multiple requests.
I think there is a good chance this a test of western resolve, perhaps by Putin more than Assad. The gas attack seemed too small to have any real strategic or tactical purpose.
The deployment of the S-400 system is basically telling America and her allies that Putin is willing to shoot down Allied assets if they violate his rules. The S-400 can supposedly take down an F-35, which means the stakes have grown tremendously for a U.S air strike. If the U.S tries to take out another symbolic target and Russia responds by shooting down a U.S. aircraft, it could be a major incident.
It also occurs to me that Putin is trying to shop the S-400 to a lot of countries, and if he could show it being effective in action against the most sohisticated military in the world, he’ll have a lot of customers. So far as I know, the S-400 has never been fired in combat.
If the U.S. does not respond, my fear would be that Putin will see this as a sign that his new weapon is feared and it will embolden even more aggressive actions.
There’s also a good chance that if it came down to F-35 vs. S-400, that the F-35 would prevail and it would be an embarrassment for the S-400’s marketers and a damper on potential foreign sales of the system.
Yup. There’s a fairly lengthy history of over-hyped Russian combat systems that end up being disappointing turds.
Yep. I guess it depends on how much confidence Putin has in his system. Also, a real-world test will provide more data for improving it.
But my guess is that it’s more like this: Putin deploys S-400, implies he will use it, then pokes the bear to test whether America will actually oppose him when the stakes are high. The answer to that question will help inform his next moves in Europe and elsewhere.
If he doesn’t have enough confidence in the S-400, the logic above still holds. It’s just that if America does respond he’ll order the S-400 crews to stand down, then use that fact to claim that he’s the big peacemaker who is trying to de-escalate the situation. The Russians are good at propaganda if nothing else.
I’ll predict that if the Russians actually fire on manned American aircraft, their shiny new S-400 gets turned into twisted, burning scrap metal in response. If they just fire at TLAMs or drones, perhaps not.
Even their vodka isn’t all that good. Never was.
Well, remember that this won’t be some sort of dual. You don’t just send a bunch of F-35’s into the teeth of any advanced interlocking defense system. And you have to look at where Russia has it deployed and concentrated, both where they have the C&C for the system and where the radial missile hub sites are located. What volume of fire can they throw at what rate? What is their critical detection range? How is the system with respect to spoofing or fuzzing? And what all would be in a US/allied strike package with what goals for the mission? Realistically, I doubt we’d be going straight for the Russians, but we’d probably have a strike package ready for if they tried to interfere with our own strike. If they did, then they would have to worry about a variety of things coming directly at them…and worried about what they gave away by trying to intercept our own strikes.
My WAG is that IF the Russians decided to engage they would find themselves engaged directly in turn, and it wouldn’t just be a handful of F-35’s coming at them. And it would all be on them, win or lose, since they would have been the ones to decide to directly intervene. And they would lose in this case. Not because the S-400 isn’t a fine weapons system, but because there is no way they could handle the volume of fire coming at them from a variety of attack systems. You can have the finest anti-air craft missile system ever, but if the enemy fires 2 missiles for every 1 you have in the tubes you are probably going to lose. And if they have 6 missiles for every 1 of yours, plus 10 dedicated attack air craft, plus overwhelming CAP and airborne support and C&C, you probably aren’t going to have a happy day…and you will lose not only the tactical battle but strategically, since if Russia attacks the US and our allies the best case is they are put under an economic embargo so heavy that it crushes what’s left of their economy. Worst case is, of course, full on war, where everybody gets to lose. Reality will probably be somewhere in-between those extremes, with Russia losing a hell of a lot more than just an air battle over Syria.
So, I don’t think that’s going to happen, despite Putin’s bluster and threats. He has a lot more to lose than we do.
Here comes the carrier group
Just left Virginia. It’ll be a while before it gets to the Med.
True, but we already have at least half a dozen destroyers and missile cruisers in the region (US…no idea what, if anything NATO or the other allies have wrt sea combatants), as well as at least a few subs I’m sure hanging out somewhere. I believe the Air Force has previous moved assets into the region as well, and of course we have other assets that can stage from European bases…and whatever the French, UK and others might want to use.
I guess the good part of this move from Try2B Comprehensive’s link is that it will bottle up the Syrian’s in the Russian enclaves until it finally arrives, as they won’t want to disperse their assets until after whatever strike happens, happens.
According to the article linked the Russian’s apparently have 2 frigates, possibly a sub or two, a 'dozens of Russian warplanes ’ and their S-400 missile defense system. I think we can discount most of what Syria has with the exception of their own Russian made missile defense system.
Well, it’s no longer a theoretical exercise. According to CNN we and our allies attacked facilities tied to Syria’s chemical weapons production or development tonight. No word on how the strikes went, but I’ve heard nothing about Russia getting involved at this point.