Was thinking of our currently living President and ex-Presidents and became curious as to when each would die. So I thought it would be fun to predict expected age of death for the currently living ex-Presidents and President Obama.
You can just make your predictions, or you can make the predictions with an explanation.
Mine would be:
George H.W. Bush - 91
He’s already started to have a series of medical problems, at age 88 this would give him a few more years and he has been otherwise healthy. But 91 is an old man, and given his recent bouts with health I expect he’ll slowly get worse over the next few years.
Jimmy Carter - 93
I predict he’ll out live George H.W. mostly because he’s not had any serious recent health issues, they are the same age, and like Bush Carter will receive the best medical care etc.
Bill Clinton - 81
Clinton lived unhealthy for most of his life until his heart trouble in his 60s. While he shed some pounds for image reasons during his Presidency, he still ate very poorly until having heart problems in his post Presidency. I think his natural aversion to exercise, history of poor eating, and familial history without many long lived people in it mean he won’t be one of the longest lived Presidents. His diet turnaround to healthy eating, his access to the very best medical care mean he’ll still live longer than the life expectancy for males but I do not expect he makes 90.
George W. Bush - 98
While he had a serious alcohol addiction until his 40s, by all signs he has been a teetotaler since then. Additionally he has been a fitness enthusiast for most of his adult life and has always exercised vigorously (he set several Presidential fitness “records” while in office.) In addition, he was born significantly after Carter/Bush I (obviously) which means he’ll have access to better medical care as he ages than they did at respective points in their lives simply because of advancing technology. Further, both of his parents have lived to an advanced age and his paternal grandmother lived to 90+, paternal grandfather to 77, maternal grandfather to 76 and a paternal grandmother that died young but to a car wreck. It would stand to reason George W. Bush’s combination of personal health habits and family history set him up as the most likely living president to live to such an advanced age.
Barack Obama - 77
Family history is mixed, his mother died young to cancer which is a concern. His father died young but to a car accident, but had a serious drinking problem that was part of the cause for his car accident(s) (indicating some familial problems with addictions.) While his parents were short lived, both of his paternal grandparents lived to very old ages (84 for grandfather and 88 for grandmother), impressive given when and where they were born.
On his mother’s side, both of his grandparents lived to decently old ages.
Obama will be controversial because he is fairly healthy now and is active. But if you dig deeper unless he changes his ways it makes sense. He’s had problems with elevated cholesterol, while no one knows his current cigarette smoking status the fact that he is a lifetime smoker who has tried repeatedly to quit that we know of means he may still be smoking. That is instantly a major negative on life expectancy, especially if he actually never fully quits. Additionally, we know his alcohol consumption, while probably not on the level of being a problem drinker, was high enough that his physician advised he “moderate his alcohol intake.” That combined with cholesterol and smoking suggests maybe Obama is one of those physically active, apparently fit guys who doesn’t take the best care of himself otherwise when it comes to what he eats and smoking/drinking. All of that combined make me suspect that unless he, like Bill Clinton, significantly changes his habits he will not live to be one of our longest lived former Presidents.