Well the public’s fears were justified. Look at just what one Turkish immigrant spawned.
You have made the understandable mistake of thinking the Leave campaign was honest, reasonable, calm and well thought out.
In fact it was simply lies, propaganda, hysteria and clueless. :smack:
I admit Boris didn’t threaten 70 million Turks - actually it was 80 million! :eek:
campaign material put out by Vote Leave ahead of the 2016 referendum which “suggested 80 million Turks would come to this country if we stayed in the EU
OK, so having had that pointed out to them, the country still voted overwhelmingly for parties that stood by the referendum result, both Labour and Tory.
That would be the deal that was offered to Parliament three times then? Followed up by the multiple indicative votes on which no clear majority could agree. That was all some time ago now.
It isn’t Boris’s fault that Parliament has not decided on a coherent course of action. Boris owns his own incompetence, Parliament as a whole owns their inaction and political, factional, in-fighting.
Why is it not both?
(re: BoJo & Corbyn)
Because if Corbyn were actually interested in power, he would have taken even one of the many opportunities he’s had in the last three weeks (or even the last three years) to demonstrate that with actions.
With the way that Britain and America have been going “hold my beer” every time one of them outdoes the other in craziness this year, this is about the only way Johnson could trump Trump considering Ukraine, so of course I expect him to try it.
If he weren’t mostly interested in power, he would be standing behing a multi-party attepmt to create a Unity Government under a relatively neutral PM. By your argument, Johnson can’t be only interested in power because he didn’t go for the leadership when Cameron quit.
Timing may make the matter otiose given the 31 October deadline, but given what the Supreme Court said about using Orders in Council to avoid parliamentary scrutiny, using them actually to disregard an explicit instruction in law is likely to lead to an equally damning judgement, and put us in real “constitutional crisis” territory. Shades of 1910-11 at the very least.
That doesn’t make sense. A unity government after a vote of no confidence was pretty much a slam dunk. The only thing standing in the way was Corbyn insisting that he head it.
So, better than even odds that this is what will happen, then?
Also, thanks for teaching me “otiose”.
Well, obviously they’d have a lot of Islamist-terrorist babies on the way.
CNN speculates that BoJo could be out as PM within days: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/28/uk/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-intl-gbr/index.html
Now we’re getting somewhere!
This is an issue I’ve written about before, and the real essence of the whole Brexit project.
Calls for inquiry into claims Johnson backers benefit from no-deal Brexit
I’m very curious to see how this new inquiry goes, both factually and in the public’s perception.
I feel there’s probably some joke about a British public figure in there that I’m insufficiently well-educated to pick up on.
Clue?
Johnson’s great-grandfather was Turkish. Ali Kemal - Wikipedia
Boris Johnson’s paternal grandfather was Turkish.
Who knows? Whether Johnson would be consciously planning on letting the country exit without a deal with such a case before the court (if someone were willing to take the case to them), with the idea of fighting the election on a platform of “people versus Parliament AND the Supreme Court” - well, Cummings probably would.
(Apologies for another long post. I don’t think we can easily discuss this by soundbite.)
No. This is superficially plausible, but it’s just a line peddled by centre right remainers who want Brexit cancelled but to retain power for the centre right afterwards. Which is an understandable objective on their part, but unfeasible given Brexit’s foundations on the right.
We know that a unity government wasn’t a slam dunk because… it didn’t happen. A majority of MPs were not willing to stand behind a neutral figure and demand a unity government against Corbyn’s personal opposition. There are procedural issues, but if there had been the will these would have been (fairly easily) overcome, and we would have a national government now. There is a weasily argument that if only Corbyn had supported an alternative leader, everything would have been fine. That way, we can blame Crobyn for opposing this wonderful hypothetical government, or if he had supported it we could then blame him for being the power behind the scenes afterwards, and the cause of all the inevitable problems.
What we don’t have is any coherent platform for what this wonderful unity government would actually have done in power. We know it wouldn’t have been a short term technical government which called a referendum and then a general election, because… that didn’t happen. If it had been this easy, then Corbyn couldn’t have stopped it. While his personal opposition was part of the reason it didn’t happen, there are many other reasons, and Corbyn’s opposition can most simply be explained by his foresight that a unity government would not have worked at that time.
Moving on to wider topics. This fundamental underlying reality of everyone advocating Brexit doing all they can to avoid taking responsibility for it, and blaming everyone else for the problems Brexit causes, actually explains most of the dynamic and timing of events. The gaps can be explained by the (inexplicable to me) continuing mass public support for Brexit (still almost half the public) and procedural realities. I’m actually still quite optimistic we can successfully get through this. And by successfully I mean remain in the EU while pretending none of this nightmare actually happened.
Labour have to continue to offer the possibility of a unicorns-for-all Brexit because so many people so desperately want that. Going full remain would allow the Tories to scream betrayal, push through Brexit, and still blame Labour for the subsequent chaos.
Labour have to deny a general election right now, because a general election would allow the Tories to scream betrayal, lament the sabotage of the brilliant deal that they were just about to secure from the EU, push through Brexit, and still blame Labour for the subsequent chaos.
Labour can’t form a government of national unity because there really isn’t the support for it in Parliament today, see above. Remainer Tories and Lib Dems scream betrayal, accuse Labour of enabling Brexit, and blame Corbyn for everything. (And still Corbyn won’t take a leap of faith and commit irrevocably to a policy which relies on these people’s continuing enthusiastic support. The man is a complete bounder!)
But be calm. The only thing which will allow progress is the absolute conviction that the time has completely run out and that everyone is on their final chance. That time is not now, and you have perhaps as many as twenty more days of this idiocy, though Johnson could melt down before then.
Johnson will have his chance to secure his brilliant renegotiation with the EU. I don’t think he will, but I do know he will blame others if he is denied the opportunity. And if he does come back with something which every current and former Tory and DUP MP supports then he will get it through Parliament and enjoy a triumphant victory. (Note, it is Labour’s responsibility to oppose any deal which does not guarantee their clear manifesto commitment to a Brexit which gives us all of the advantages of EU membership, and more, and few of the obligations. They were and are right to oppose Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement for example, which clearly contradicts their manifesto commitment.)
If Johnson instead pivots to officially or implicitly seeking a hard no-deal exit (which to be fair he has resolutely opposed so far, it is a million-to-one chance which could only arise if the EU acts in unimaginably bad faith, etc.) then no doubt all of the Lib Dems and former Tory MPs will support Corbyn to push through a national government. With their unconditional support this will take about 24 hours. (The other parties are assumed to be on board already.)
Will the Lib Dems and Tory MPs support a Corbyn government at the last moment? They say a no-deal exit is the worst possible outcome. Corbyn is offering an extension to the article 50 period to January (or so?), and a general election in which Labour will unequivocally commit to a prompt referendum with Remain as an option. All of that can be delivered in the last week of October, and can’t be delivered much before then. What’s not to like?
What’s not to like is apparently that it means that we only get to remain if we have a Labour government. Even worse, if we do leave then it will be on terms negotiated by a Labour government. The remainers on the centre right and centre criticising Corbyn for his naked pursuit of his own political interests at the expense of the national interest are adamant that the national interest is best served by remaining in the EU with a centre right government, or at worst leaving the EU on terms negotiated by a centre right government. Their selfless pursuit of the public good is an admirable example to us all, but it falls down on the simple reality that given the state of public opinion and the current situation of the Conservative Party, there is no path to a centre right government in the EU, and probably no path to a centre right government with even a managed exit from the EU.
Without a Labour led government, Britain will crash out of the EU in the worst possible way, condemning the country to decades of division, economic chaos and civil strife. Centrist remainers won’t acknowledge this until the last possible moment, and possibly not even then, and I say that as a committed centrist remainer myself. In the meantime, many of us will play the both-sides-do-it-too game, and blame Jeremy Corbyn for a clusterfuck which was conceived, implemented, and driven solely by right wing Tories.
(Obviously, this is just, like, my opinion.)
Yup, I do, like, your opinion.
The best up-to-date analysis I’ve seen.
Please review and renew it whenever you can. Thanks.
The point is that, had Corbyn supported a neutral unity government, it would have happened. He chose, and continues to choose, not to. And it’s clear why - it’s because he wants to leave the EU, and he wants power, and he doesn’t care what happens to the majority of the country as long as he achieves that.
Hopefully we will see a no-confidence vote this week, the SNP are pushing for one, and then Labour will have to choose whether or not they have confidence in Johnson as PM. Most likely they will be whipped to abstain, and Parliament will formally show confidence in Johnson, but there’s always a chance enough MPs will rebel and he will be gone.