Sky News just reported that Boris Johnson will fall a snap general election for 14 October should Parliament block no-deal Brexit this week which seems likely. This could get real interesting. I assume Boris thinks that the Tories will still win with a larger majority, but what does the Brexit party do? And, Labour would win an absolute landslide if they had any other leader besides Jeremy Corbyn.
Should be a very interesting week in UK politics!
For those of us having a hard time keeping score: Who (parties or prominent individuals) are opposed to Brexit, and what are their current numbers? Is there anyone who might plausibly get into power and say “Nope, sorry, Brexit’s off, if you want it back, then negotiate a deal first”?
I saw something that mentioned the “reaction of the Scots.” I guess that means that the people of Scotland are given to feel differently than the people of England about Brexit, and they either strongly agree of strongly disagree with the current flow of events.
And while I understand that Boris Johnson can suspend Parliament (with the Queen’s permission,) can’t the House of Commons rise up in a huff and call itself back into session if enough members want to?
It’s my understanding that Scotland is pretty strongly against Brexit, and that in fact the recent very close vote on Scottish independence was premised on the assumption that the UK would remain in the EU. So if Brexit does go through, we could see that question being raised again. There might also be some grumblings from Northern Ireland (one of the complications of Brexit would be that there’d now be an EU/non-EU boundary down the middle of the island, which could re-ignite the Troubles), but I haven’t heard as much about that.
Very much so - probably the most hostile to Brexit part of the UK.
That was the working assumption at the time. It’s a bit more complex than that, because if Scotland had voted for independence it’s relationship to the EU was not exactly well-defined.
Oh yes.
It’s been discussed in really quite some detail in really quite a few of the myriad Brexit threads on here.
Nigel Farage leader of the"Brexit party" has promised to support johnson in a collation should the tories not get a majority
Support with what? The Brexit Party are unlikely to have any MPs - at best they’ll be split the Brexiteer vote.
I hope all the canapés will be sourced from non-EU companies.
Away with your filthy Frenchisms.
Don’t let’s start the “crudite” argument again.
Just to be clear, the issue in a general election will not be whether Brexit should happen or not; it’s whether Brexit should happen on 31 October, without a deal between the UK and the EU as to the terms of Brexit. Ranged up on the “no” side will be not only those who oppose Brexit but also those who favour Brexit, but believe that it should or must be implemented with a negotiated exit deal.
On that basis:
The Brexit Party strongly favours no-deal Brexit.
The Tory party leadership either favours no-deal Brexit, or is pursuing a policy which is practically certain to result in no-deal Brexit and (a) is happy with that outcome, or (b) deludes itself that that outcome is not practically certain. The Tory parliamentary party contains a range of opinion, but party loyalty/the desire for advancement/the fear of punishment means most of them will support the party leadership. But seems likely that enough will rebel against the party leadership to deprive the government of its majority (in the present parliament; obvs the numbers will be different after an election).
The Labour party is deeply divided and deeply confused. The bulk of the parliamentary party, and the bulk of the party membership, oppose Brexit; the party leadership is thought to favour it, but won’t say so. The official line is that the Brexit referendum result must be respected and the UK must leave, but not with a no-deal Brexit and not with any kind of deal that the Tories are likely to negotiate. Policy is that the implementation of Brexit should be in the hands of a Labour government, so Brexit should be deferred until after an election, and any deal negotiated then shoujld be submitted to the people for ratification in a referendum.
The Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Nationalists, Plaid Cymru, oppose Brexit.
The Democratic Unionist Party supports the Tory government but is scared shitless of the electoral consequences for themselves, should a no-deal Brexit happen. Publc opinion in Northern Ireland opposes Brexit, and strongly opposes a no-deal Brexit, which will be disastrous for NI, socially, economically and politically. It is ironic that a no-deal Brexit is threatened largely because Westminister refuses to accept a draft deal which would afford special treatment for NI, keeping it close to the EU and so mitigating the adverse consequences of Brexit, despite the fact that the deal is widely popular in NI.
Sinn Fein opposes Brexit for Northern Ireland; does not care what Great Britain does; considers that it has no business to care about that. But as Sinn Fein does not take its seats in the Westminister parliament their views have little influence.
That’s a pretty good description. Except I’d say that both the Tories and Labour are deeply divided. At least Labour offloaded some of its more confused people to… erm… Change UK? Is that their name now? But that have a name of some sort.
Tories have generally been better at being united than divided but Boris is really divisive and there hasn’t been a single vote in parliament to see whether his own MPs support him, so it’s all up in the air.
And that’s if it happens. If it happens on the date it’s supposed to, whoever wins will have to deal with a no-deal Brexit. Won’t they? That’s what it looks like. But would the EU really make us agree to a no-deal that wasn’t actually agreed upon by the government in situ after… Oh, I give up.
Good God, it’s so ridiculous. It’s like living in the Sims with someone who doesn’t know how to play Government.
“The Labour Party is Deeply Divided and Deeply Confused”
I tend to think this is accurate, but it wouldn’t look good on the cover of the Manifesto now, would it?
Question: when are new MPs sworn in after an election?
The Queen’s Speech is usually two to three weeks after a GE, and MPs get sworn in as soon as Parliament restarts. I’m sure this timescale can be considerably shortened. I’m sure they’ve done a State Opening-lite before, maybe back when Her Maj was heavily pregnant.
Quite an important point here: Johnson cannot unilaterally call an election. He will need the consent of Parliament. This is a relatively new feature of UK politics: prior to the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011, Prime Ministers could call elections as they saw fit. Now, if a PM wants an election they have to ask Parliament to vote for one. This vote has to be passed by an absolute 2/3rds majority of the Commons - 434 in favour. The current government has 311 Tory MPs and 10 DUP MPs. So there will only be an election on that date if the other parties support it.
In general, this wouldn’t matter! Opposition parties want to become governing parties, so tend to welcome elections. Moreover, they really don’t want to be seen as running scared of an election, so even if they’re behind in the polls they’re unlikely to vote to keep the government in government. However, these are not normal times. Johnson’s government are at great risk of being defeated by Parliament over the issue of No Deal. The anti-No Deal parties have prepared a Bill which would prevent No Deal by the 31st of October and they intend to bring it to the House this week. They likely have the votes, as there are perhaps as many as 20 Tory MPs who have committed to voting against their own party on this matter. Calling an election is a means not only of getting a new Parliament, but of cutting this one short.
As advertised, the election Johnson favours would take place by 14th Oct leaving new Parliament barely enough time to have a say on the deal with the EU that apparently the government will conclude by 17th October. BUT - no one trusts Boris. Still less does anyone trust Dominic Cummings, his chief of staff. The fear is that having secured agreement for an election, these chancers would use the PM’s perogative powers to move the date to some point in November, thus practically guaranteeing No Deal. So: if you are an anti-No Deal MP, it is by no means obviously in your best interests to vote for an election. It is much more in your interest to keep Parliament in session while you pass your anti-No Deal bill.
In short, while there is doubtless an election in the near future there is a very good chance that Johnson won’t get the one he’s asking for.
Results of an analysis of the latest poll:
In a snap election, the projected results are:
Conservatives -6 seats
Labour -20.
Lib-Dems +9
SNP +17.
So a hung parliament, with opposition parties collectively able to outvote the Tories.
Labour appears to be against an election.
This is a disaster all round.
Only until Johnson has been forced to seek an extension. They can’t trust him not to change the date of the election - which is within the PMs prerogative power - to post 31st October otherwise.
I don’t understand that poll completely, as the numbers don’t jibe with the numbers on the wiki page on Commons membership. It can’t be ignoring the parties that aren’t in the list, because it has an entry for “other” as “1” projected seat even though there are 21 members who do not belong to the parties listed in the polls when you discount Sinn Fein. (When I saw the poll I had to check to see if Change UK had somehow dissolved.)
But the projected results are still pretty clear considering the projected loss of 6 and a majority of one.