Somehow one has the impression that JRM’s sole function in politics is to be beside the point.
But he certainly knows how to party.
Will there be resignations?
Not by Johnson. I predict he will never resign, no matter what is revealed in the police or Gray’s reports, and will have to be forced from office.
ETA: He knows the rules of current conservative (small c) politics: Deny, Deflect, Project, and never ever ever admit you were wrong.
Well that’s handy for the other potential successors - Sunak as well, on top of his other embarrassments: Gove must be smiling up his sleeve.
There are Tory MPs who were saying Johnson would have to go if he were fined, but that was before Ukraine: even if the magic number of requests for a vote of confidence were reached, that’s no guarantee enough of the rest would desert him in the vote itself - they would probably argue it’s all a frivolous distraction. Until, perhaps, they see the local election results come May 5th.
His get of jail free card is the Ukraine invasion.
Would the Tory party depose a leader during an international crisis?
Churchill in 1945 isn’t quite on point, I suppose. That was the voters.
Chamberlain in 1940 would be a better example.
Boris Johnson - taking the piss in our time.
With respect to Britain’s role in the current crisis in Ukraine, there is quite an important point:
Britain is not, in fact, at war.
Nor is it going to be. We are playing an important, even leading, role in supporting Ukraine but - this is not a policy that Johnson has been pursuing in the teeth of his own party’s or Labour’s opposition. If he were to resign (it is to laugh) or be no-confidenced by his party, both any interim leader and his successor would continue the same policy of providing material support but not declaring war on Russia.
So the argument “what he did was bad but the Ukraine crisis means this isn’t the time” is a plausible excuse on its face but doesn’t really stand up. Interestingly however, it does, when relied on as a first line of defence, rather imply that the only reason for him not to resign is the timing - i.e. he does in fact deserve to lose his job.
There is also nobody in France who is asking for the Presidential run-off election to be postponed. He will not resign on his own. For that he would need to have the capability for feeling guilt or admitting that he was wrong.
Remember the people making the decision about Johnson are the members of his own party. The electorate will have their say in elections. There are some local elections on 5th May and, though these are for local councils only, they will be scrutinised as a measure of the national governments popularity. Plenty of people will be using it as a protest vote. The Conservative party will use this as a guide to whether Johnson can deliver a win at the next General Election in January 2025. This seems an eternity away, but the party needs to become electable long before then. They cannot tolerate more years of Johnson screw ups.
Another factor they will be the readiness of credible rivals for PM. A couple of weeks ago the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, in charge of the countries finances, was looking good. However, he his popularity has dipped following revelations about his wife’s tax arrangements. He and his wife are enormously wealthy and this does not go down well with the electorate having to endure tax rises and cost of living crisis. Rich folks telling poor folks to tighten their belts was never going to be easy. There are suspicions that these embarrassing revelations were leaked from Boris’s team at No 10. This would be pretty par for the course in British politics. During the New Labour years, Blair in No 10 Downing Street, was often at odds with Brown at No 11 Downing street.
The other potential candidates are also not looking very credible. Liz Truss doing Margaret Thatcher impressions as a cold war warrior, look dubious. Her record as Foreign Secretary has been poor, as indeed was Boris Johnsons’ stint at this job in the last government. Foreign policy as far as the Conservative party is concerned was all about Brexit and a confrontational attitude towards the EU…until recent events. Outside of the EU the UK can only be arms supplier to Ukraine in public and in private trying the mitigate some of the huge influence the Russian Oligarchs bought by supporting Conservative politicians.
Pritti Patel at the Home Office has a wholly negative image now because of her handling of the Ukraine refugee crisis. Her department was on a mission to shore up the UK borders and require refugees to apply for visas before being allowed in the country. Her department was charged with implementing Brexit and diligently weed out anyone who might be an economic migrant disguised as a refugee or asylum seeker. Ukraine changed all that and Patel and her department have been very slow to respond to this huge political change.
For the Conservative MPs, who else can they look to? The field is pretty sparse. Gove? Hunt? Sajid Javid?
They will be keeping the powder dry until after the May local elections and then we might see a challenge. But only Rishi Sunak looked credible. How he handles the next few weeks will be interesting. He might resign and then try to make a come back if there is a leadership election. The cost of living crisis is going to become a major issue and a poisoned chalice for whoever is the next Chancellor.
The May local elections are only a few weeks away, so not much is going to happen before then and Parliament is in recess for Easter, so fewer opportunities for plotting in the corridors of power. That and pointing towards Ukraine as far more important issue than Partygate will be enough to calm the storm until the May 5th local election results come through. Then we will see how much of a drubbing the Conservatives get at the polls. There is a lot of anger at Johnson’s antics amongst the general public and the likelihood of a protest vote seems very likely. It is a question of how big.
Yes, it remains true that the main thing keeping Johnson in power is that there are no credible alternatives.
I was just watching a clip of a BBC interview with someone who’d lost his brother to COVID during lockdown. He was asked who in the Conservative Party he’d prefer in charge. His response: “That’s like asking me to choose my favourite flavour of animal poo.”
I read a piece suggesting that Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, was about the only cabinet minister arousing much enthusiasm among Tiry backbenchers, but he’s not exactly impressing with gravitas.
There’s been some talk about Tom Tugendhat, who isn’t tainted by being on Johnson’s team.
Jim Hacker might be a good compromise candidate.
I like that Francis Urquhart fellow myself…
After all, there have been less likely Prime Ministers.
If only Rory Stewart had somehow won the 2019 leadership election.
That would have required a whole body transplant for most of the party members as well as their MPs.
So this is happening.
I spy another ridiculous and cruel policy proposal released as a desperate move to pull attention away from the ongoing fines being imposed on the Prime Minister and several others in his immediate sphere.
“Of Course… Who exactly?”
That may have been true in the 80’s when the episode was filmed, since 2019 not so sure.