Under their rules, there can’t be another challenge within twelve months if he wins (180+) but if he doesn’t win the Yes/No confidence vote convincingly (say, nearer 300 than 200) he looks weakened, even holed below the waterline.
There are two by-elections later this month, which will by a neat symmetry test the Tories’ support in both a northern industrial seat they won from Labour in 2019, and a rural south-western seat that is historically overwhelmingly Tory but may be vulnerable to protest votes for the LibDems as has happened in other by-elections. If they lose those, but are stuck with him for another year, it will be… interesting.
Even if he wins by one vote this man will try to cling on. I’m doudtful (but hopeful) it’ll be that close though - he will probably win by 100.
But today is a long day and lots of things can happen to try to swing votes. For instance, Jesse Penrose, the government’s Anti-Corruption Tsar, has just resigned saying it’s “clear he [the PM] has broken” the ministerial code.
Haven’t got data to hand but the polls I’ve seen from Wakefield are not looking good - even the solid Conservative base are wavering, and by far the main reason cited is Boris. Which rather puts his claims of “You can’t win without me” in a different light.
More from CNN:
And one conservative’s case against the PM:
I can’t disagree with any of Norman’s points, although the usual “What took you so long?” reproach applies. Boris has been like this his entire career; the sudden shock at discovering that there is gambling going on here Boris is incompetent, corrupt, self-centred and leaves a trail of destruction in his wake is a little hard to take seriously.
From the name on twitter at the time, it wasn’t him, for a change.
Vote just in …
59% for Johnson
41% against.
Bastard.
211 to 148 - May got a better result barely 6 months before having to quit.
Kind of astounding that it looks like the Tories haven’t really got anyone else to coalesce around strongly right now.
It’s worse for Johnson than anyone thought. He will continue to cling on though.
I’ve seen a remark that if the “payroll vote” (i.e., ministers and aides) voted for him, that must mean something like 75% of the back-benchers didn’t - which is hardly a vote of confidence.
But they stumble on till the by-elections at least. That Friday morning and the weekend should be something to watch.
How big is the payroll vote?
About 160-170, I believe
CNN says as many as 180. Here’s their overview:
But the voters have spoken in two by-elections, one in traditionally Tory rural southwest England, and one in the post-industrial North that they won last time. Catastrophe for them in both, with substantial anti-Tory tactical voting, plus signs of a real shift of previously Tory voters.
And those are very much referenda on Boris - despite whatever gloating Labour and the LibDems might do, their actual support in both areas is not particularly strong. But apart from the openly tactical voting, there are indeed plenty of traditional Conservatives who have had enough of Johnson and plenty of reasons why, who voted for another party or not at all because of it.
Labour need to press home the advantage by actually creating and communicating a clear philosophy of who they are and what they stand for, rather than just trying to hold a vague position on everything that tries to satisfy every member of the party. In other words they need a strong leader who will pull the party along with them.
The Lib Dems just need to get a grip generally.
Well that would make a nice fucking change.
See above.
And now he’s away with the fairies:
The gift that keeps on giving.
On the heels of news that he tried to persuade a party donor to stump up £150,000 for a tree-house (a tree-house) at his official country house (i.e., only his to use while PM), comes the resignation of a deputy chief whip for groping two staffers while falling-down drunk (a man appointed by Johnson even after a similar incident).