Your cite assumes something that is not a sure thing:
Democrats like to comfort themselves that this is a Presidential election thing rather than just an Obama thing. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.
White turnout has also been historically low in the Obama years, as the chart in your cite shows. If either minority turnout goes down post-Obama, or white turnout goes up, that changes everything.
IOW he loses the least humiliatingly?
For her, maybe.
It does if Walker has only, or mainly, major upside potential and HRC’s major downward. Do you really think that’s the case?
To expect Hillary to get a larger percentage of white voters than Obama, and still do well with non-whites. What do you mean by “an Obama thing?”
I would not count him out. He’ll have a tough time getting thru the primaries, but so did Romney. I think it will be easier for him than it was for Romney. That is not to say I think he’s going to get it, because that depends on the competition.
Romney never had serious trouble beating the Crazy Dude of the Month, since he was the lone Electable candidate they had. There was never any real danger that the choice of the party’s money men would not be the nominee. For Christie, or anyone else, to get it this time, they’ll have to appear to be this round’s Sane, Responsible, Electable Guy. Christie is well behind Jeb in that race, with the bridge-closing charges about to be filed, and with Jeb already having won the critical Sheldon Adelson Primary.
That’s what I meant by “it depends on the competition”. If Bush is in, that does not bode well for Christie. Are there charges about to be filed on the Bridge Closing Scandal?
This is the first thing that came to mind when I saw the title to this thread. Unfortunately the video does not seem to be available anywhere online.
OTOH the polls in aggregate not only have the approval for his handling of the economy moving up but into positive range (49 to 46) for the first time since October '09. Looking at Quinnipiac … they had been negative 39 to 56 in a poll just 6 weeks before that one. That is a huge upside move.
The election is indeed a long long way away and lots can happen including major self-destructions by Team Hillary or external events that are unpredictable.
But we have an incumbent president polling very well with moderates and points left, a standard bearer who will poach some center right women and likely both hold together those who voted for Obama and some blue collar voters who did not. We have a GOP primary to come that will force the less extreme to take more extreme positions. We have a Congress dominated by some of the most batshit elements of the GOP which will make many moderates desire a counterweight.
Barring some unforeseeable event it is her race to lose … which she could do!
2008 primary redux!
BTW, does anyone know what Elvis was talking about re: Chris Christie when he posted “with the bridge-closing charges about to be filed”? What charges are about to be filed?
Not really, because whites will be working from a base two points smaller and minorities from a base two points larger. Not to mention:
and
Remember how Hillary whupped Obama in a lot of the whiter states with more centrist and blue collar Democrats? It kind of grossed me out at the time, but it is a dynamic that will serve her well this time 'round.
I suppose I can throw in the caveat others have, that “anything could happen”. Some major scandal could break at the last moment. But it strikes me as doubtful. Even if she were to flame out or die, I feel confident Democrats could sub in Martin O’Malley or somebody and still be fine. To lose this election would require threading a needle: some kind of semi-scandal that doesn’t *quite *push her out of the race, but dings her just badly enough to make her lose a nail-biter. I don’t see it happening.
You claimed Romney had “a rough time in the primaries”. No, that facts are that he did not.
What a clever boy!
You could just ask, you know. Or you could even read the fucking news, without demanding that people on a message board spoonfeed you. Try it sometime, there’s a whole world out there.
That’s your opinion, not a fact.
I did, immediately [post #27] below your post [#26]:
No need to reply so rudely about a simple request.
While “a lot can happen from now until the election” is a mantra everyone on both sides keeps repeating i simply cannot look at an electoral map and see any path to victory for republicans. I guess hope springs eternal and there are lots of numbers and statistics you can quote to give yourself hope, but if anyone can look at a map and show me how republicans could possibly win i will be very impressed.
lol’d
That’s enough with the rudeness, Elvis.
And that’ll go for everyone in the thread. Keep it civil no matter how heated up you might get.
Meanwhile I read the news and the cite and the implication that Christie was going to be indicted is misleading at the least. The indictments expected are for those who have admitted wrong doing and the point of the article was how this is likely good news for Christie (who still has no chance) barring some surprising new revelation.
Here’s one argument for their chances.
It assumes an Obama favorability of 41%, Clinton tracking that I guess, and a lackluster economy. Then they argue many swing states all swing en bloc.
Also here. Figuring any state that was within 10 is a possible swing gives 183 up for grabs with the democrats staring with a hard 191 and the GOP with a hard 164.
I can see 2 things that could definitely kill Hillarys White House bid:
And/or