Barack Obama received 39% of the white vote nationally in 2012, while he got 43% in 2008. With white voters leaving the Democratic Party in the Obama era, and with the tensions of the Black Lives Matter movement, police tensions, etc; what share of the white vote will the Democratic nominee receive in 2016?
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
Probably higher than Obama, since I think there were a small but significant number of white Democrats (a few percent’s worth or so) who would not vote for a black candidate.
Considering that the Democratic nominee won’t be black, I don’t think that it’s going to matter much. But it’ll be higher than Obama had.
I would predict slightly less than what Obama received in 2012, sine their candidate in 2016 will be much less charismatic and appealing than he was. Also, their policies have alienated a lot of people.
Agreed, assuming the Democrat wins. If HRC wins, she’ll probably get between 45-47%. She 1. isn’t thought to be a Kenyan Muslim by a sizable portion of the country and 2. she isn’t associated for being sympathetic to radical Islamists, which whites take more issue with Obama than non-whites. The Clintons also are more popular with white voters and won some whiter states before. Of course, if HRC loses, it will probably be what Obama got in the white vote. I doubt she loses, given that Obama’s job approval is moving up, a lot more polls have him closer to net approval than they did a year ago. O’s not below 40% like Dubya was.
Neither were Kerry and Gore and they fell between Obama’s two numbers. Either that means there’s been a shift or the voters who affected by those two ideas weren’t voting for someone with a (D) after their name anyway.
yes but they lost. I was giving a scenario if Hillary wins. I said if she loses, then she’d get similar to Kerry and Gore, tho still prob better than Obama.
NM
(Posted to wrong thread.)
Has it been established that the 4% decrease was in Democrats who left the party, rather than party-independent voters?
I think the Democratic nominee will get about 37% of the white vote. The Democrats’ lawless stance on immigration and wanting to expand the welfare state and raise taxes while killing good paying jobs in the energy industry is going to further push white voters away from the party.
There, that’s the good stuff. 
Hey, it’s better than “White people are racist, that’s why they vote Republican.”
Well by popular vote, which is all the overall demographics can tell us, Gore won narrowly. Hillary might need 1% more among whites than Obama to make up for possibly losing some of the black/hispanic demographic smackdown Romney took. Getting 4-5% more starts getting us in to landslide territory when you are talking about a demographic that still accounts for 70+% of actual voters.
I’m not sure how she can be similar to Gore/Kerry in a loss without also being similar to Obama. Gore wishes he’d gotten Obama 2012 numbers among whites. With that small bump up he’d likely be part of the former Presidents club now.
You forgot screwing with everyone’s health insurance and lying about it.
35%
There are really three factors to consider: first, to some degree, Obama underperformed how an equivalent white Democrat would do. Second, the Democrats’ share of the white vote has been trending downwards. Third, there are macro-electoral factors that presumably affect all population splits, though not necessarily equally.
I think the first and third indicate a rebound from Obama’s 2012 low (39%). The second would work against this. All that said, I don’t think the second factor is particularly strong. Looking only at presidential election years, and just guessing that Perot’s white vote share would have split equally between Clinton and Republican, you have Carter in 1976 and Clinton (both years) in the high 40s. Then you have Gore and Kerry in the low 40s, and then Obama between low 40s and high 30s.
I think, starting with Obama’s 39% in 2012, which was a winning year for the Democrats, you’d probably fairly add 3-4 points based on the improving economic climate. Knock off a point or two for the Democrats’ long-term decline. Then add that back for the Obama underperformance effect. So there ya have it: barring a significant change in the economic outlook, international disaster, or true Clinton scandal: 42%.
I don’t know any white people who think like this. And I know a lot of white people.
Not by much, it ain’t.
At least on his first point there are some white people who do agree that Obama has been lawless on immigration (PDF link).
When you don’t even deport the criminals and they kill people, that’s pretty lawless. Especially when it’s not incompetence, but a choice.
So, that would be no.