Probability of Channel-Changing Properly

The probability of changing the radio station to The Mountian and hitting the beginning of the song on a Saturday afternoon is 7.1%

Here’s my data:

Starting time: 2:54 on Saturday, August 23, 2008
Radio Station: 99.5 The Mountian
Number of Commercial Breaks: II
Ending time: 4:00 on Saturday, August 23, 2008
Total Commercial time: 17 min, 22 sec
Number of Songs: 12
Number of Long (longer than 4 min) Songs: 5 (more than a third)
Assumed Amount of Time for Beginning: 15 sec if song is under 4 min, 25 sec if song is above 4 min

Name of Song/Artist/Song Length
It Keeps You Runnin’/Doobie Brothers/4:17
Living Thing/ELO/3:27
Long Distance Runaround + The Fish/Yes/6:09
Forever Man/Eric Clapton/3:12
The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down/Band/3:33
Orange Crush/REM/3:50
Going Mobile/The Who/3:39
Benny and the Jets/Elton John/3:27
Don’t Do Me Like That/Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers/2:44
Four Sticks/Led Zeppelin/4:44
Jack and Diane (alt. version)/John “Cougar” Mellencamp/4:18
Comfortably Numb/Pink Floyd/6:18