Probability of Criminal Voyeur committing rape?

[JerseyFrank]

A (former?) friend was recently sentenced to 9 months for battery & 2nd offense of voyeurism. I knew he was in and out of trouble since at least 1992. Whenever I looked up his record, it was a laundry list of loitering charges. In the last 2 years, he’s gotten restraining orders & voyeurism charges culminating in being caught, getting into a fight with the guy that caught him, and finally being convicted and thrown in prison.

Anyway, I was pretty close to this guy. He was a college friend, a roommate, and a fraternity brother. Despite being 1200 miles apart, we’d still get together a few times a year.

I’m concerned that this secret life of a Peeping Tom might lead to rape. What are the odds of this? What are the odds that any given criminal voyeur would change his ways after 16 years of deviant behavior?

My friend has always been one of the least reliable people I know. Chronically late, misses appointments, etc. I’ve been told that he’s been seeing a psychologist, but I doubt he’ll follow through for long just because he’ll miss appointments.

I’m trying to find a way to justify how I can remain his friend. I want him to “get better,” but I’m cynical. I figure I’ll have to sacrifice the friendship for the safety of my family… or at least the perceived safety. My wife is particularly creeped out now.

[Cub_Mistress]

This link from West Virginia University says that 68% of rapists began their careers with Peeping Tom activities. (scroll down, it’s under demographics of serial rapists.) In police circles it is an absolute rock-solid belief that peeping leads to rape, eventually, and that every peeping tom arrested is probably already a rapist.

[WF_Tomba]

@Cub_Mistress

This link from West Virginia University says that 68% of rapists began their careers with Peeping Tom activities.

But that says next to nothing about what proportion of peeping toms go on to become rapists.

Edited to add: as for the rock-solid beliefs of police officers, well . . . what can I say but :rolleyes:?

[Gfactor]

Like much of the evidence on prediction of criminality, what’s out there is mushy and subject to interpretation. See, e.g.,

2. Are “Peeping Toms” Likely to Commit More Serious Offenses ?
   According to Roger W. Wolfe, who specializes in the treatment of
   sex offenders at Northwest Treatment Associates in Seattle, a
   “peeping Tom”, or voyeur, generally is manifesting a “chronic
   problem” that cannot be addressed by a “slap on the wrist.” Mr.
   Wolfe points out that these offenders seek out victims because the offenders enjoy the “risk.”

As Mr. Wolfe observes, the typical “peeping Tom” could engage
in less risky, less frightening, and completely legal activity,
such as viewing a
sexually explicit video tape. Rather, it is the enjoyment of
risk, and the interaction with the victim, Mr. Wolfe says, which
motivates “peeping Toms.” These same factors cause many “peeping
Toms” to escalate their behavior, thus posing a greater threat to
victims.

Mr. Wolfe points to a study which supports his position, Abel,
et. al., Multiple Paraphilic Diagnosis Among Sex Offenders
(1988) Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychology and the
Law, Vol. 16, Number 2, Pages 153-168 (the Abel study). The
Abel study analyzed the behavior of 62 voyeurs, among other
sexual offenders, over a one-year period.

Among the Abel study’s conclusions were the following:

a) 52% of the voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a
female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within
the last year.

b) 26% of the voyeurs admitted to having this contact with a
male pre-pubescent child during the last year.

c) 18% admitted to having sexual contact with a female
pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the
last year.

d) 10% admitted to having such contact with a male
pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last
year.

e) 37% admitted to committing a rape within the last year.

f) 11% admitted to engaging in sadism within the last year.

g) 15% admitted to making obscene telephone calls within the
last year.

h) 8% admitted to masturbating publicly within the last year.

i) 10% admitted to engaging in acts of bestiality within the
last year.

However, Robert Prentke, the Director of Clinical and Forensic
Services at the Peters Institute in Philadelphia (which is
devoted exclusively to treating sexually deviant behavior),
argues that because the subjects in the Abel study were from a
“heterogeneous group” of people from varying backgrounds, it is
“difficult to say” whether any individual voyeur is likely to
commit more dangerous acts. Mr. Prentke pointed to several
relevant factors for predicting more dangerous behavior:
sexual drive, strong evidence of anger, history of assaultive
behavior, and truancy.

Yet Michael Prodan, a Special Agent Supervisor and a Criminal
Investigative “Profiler” for the California Department of
Justice, puts great weight on the Abel study. Mr. Prodan also
points to a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) study which
shows that of 41 incarcerated serial rapists (who committed a
minimum of 10 rapes each and committed a total of 837 rapes),
68% of them (or 27 rapists) engaged in peeping.
(R. Hazelwood and A. Burgess, An Introduction to the Serial
Rapist: Research By the FBI, FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin,
Vol. 58, No. 9, Sept. 1987, Pp. 16-24.)

Mr. Prodan also cites another study which concluded that of 259
“power reassurance” rapists, 70% (or 181 of them) used peeping
and prowling as a means of selecting their victims. (J.
Warren, R. Reboussin, and R. Hazelwood, The Geographic and
Temporal Sequencing of Serial Rape, The
National Institute of Justice, Submitted July 15, 1995.)

http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/97-98/bill/asm/ab_0901-0950/ab_950_cfa_19970328_151636_asm_comm.html

And see,

Only a small percentage of voyeurs will go on to commit worse crimes and, although 95% of rapists and sexual murderers have displayed voyeuristic tendencies, this in no way means all voyeurs will go on to offend in such a manner.

http://www.channel4.com/health/microsites/0-9/4health/sex/shi_voyeurism.html

Peterson and Knecht said voyeurs have been known to get bolder in efforts over time, and the crime can be a gateway to more serious sex crimes.

"A lot of these people, before they commit rape, could possibly be doing these types of crimes first,” Peterson said.

http://newsok.com/voyeurism-laws-to-go-high-tech/article/3238669/?tm=1209859866

[JerseyFrank]

the Peters Institute in Philadelphia (which is
devoted exclusively to treating sexually deviant behavior)

Well, that’s a bit funny. Peters. heh.
Thanks for the links/info. I read through it. It’s more than enough for me to passively terminate the friendship. I never would pick him out as a rapist… but then again, I wouldn’t have figured him for a Peeping Tom either.

[WF_Tomba]

Among the Abel study’s conclusions were the following:

a) 52% of the voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a
female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within
the last year.
. . .

c) 18% admitted to having sexual contact with a female
pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the
last year.

There’s obviously an error here.

[bienville]

@WF_Tomba

There’s obviously an error here.

Yeah, that confused me too.
Took me a few re-reads to catch:

The
Abel study analyzed the behavior of 62 voyeurs, among other
sexual offenders, over a one-year period.

bolding mine

So, that’s: 52% of the voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.

against: 18% of the total sample of sexual offenders, including but not limited to those described as voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.
The study is suggesting that voyeurs are more likely to have sexual contact with children when compared to other sexual offenders. Seems that, in order to be helpful, we’d have to know what were the other designations applied to the sexual offenders in the sample group. For example: I doubt that any of the sexual offenders were designated as child molesters, since that I believe that offenders designated as child molesters would have a much higher rate of sexual contact with children compared to offenders designated as voyeurs.

Seems a shoddy study, or at least a shoddy report of the study- though I admit to not having followed the links.

[Gfactor]

@bienville

Seems a shoddy study, or at least a shoddy report of the study- though I admit to not having followed the links.

Either or both are possible. I don’t have a copy of the study. Like I said, “mushy and subject to interpretation.”

[WF_Tomba]

@bienville

So, that’s: 52% of the voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.

against: 18% of the total sample of sexual offenders, including but not limited to those described as voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.
The study is suggesting that voyeurs are more likely to have sexual contact with children when compared to other sexual offenders. Seems that, in order to be helpful, we’d have to know what were the other designations applied to the sexual offenders in the sample group. For example: I doubt that any of the sexual offenders were designated as child molesters, since that I believe that offenders designated as child molesters would have a much higher rate of sexual contact with children compared to offenders designated as voyeurs.

It would also be important to know how many non-voyeurs were studied.

[Hypnagogic_Jerk]

I don’t know. It could be argued that to a voyeur, the fact that what he or she is doing appears to be a “victimless crime” – I know it’s not, but it can appear to be – may be a factor. If a voyeur doesn’t get caught, his/her victim will never know what happened. That’s certainly not true of rape.