Probability of Criminal Voyeur committing rape?

A (former?) friend was recently sentenced to 9 months for battery & 2nd offense of voyeurism. I knew he was in and out of trouble since at least 1992. Whenever I looked up his record, it was a laundry list of loitering charges. In the last 2 years, he’s gotten restraining orders & voyeurism charges culminating in being caught, getting into a fight with the guy that caught him, and finally being convicted and thrown in prison.

Anyway, I was pretty close to this guy. He was a college friend, a roommate, and a fraternity brother. Despite being 1200 miles apart, we’d still get together a few times a year.

I’m concerned that this secret life of a Peeping Tom might lead to rape. What are the odds of this? What are the odds that any given criminal voyeur would change his ways after 16 years of deviant behavior?

My friend has always been one of the least reliable people I know. Chronically late, misses appointments, etc. I’ve been told that he’s been seeing a psychologist, but I doubt he’ll follow through for long just because he’ll miss appointments.

I’m trying to find a way to justify how I can remain his friend. I want him to “get better,” but I’m cynical. I figure I’ll have to sacrifice the friendship for the safety of my family… or at least the perceived safety. My wife is particularly creeped out now.

This link from West Virginia University says that 68% of rapists began their careers with Peeping Tom activities. (scroll down, it’s under demographics of serial rapists.) In police circles it is an absolute rock-solid belief that peeping leads to rape, eventually, and that every peeping tom arrested is probably already a rapist.

But that says next to nothing about what proportion of peeping toms go on to become rapists.

Edited to add: as for the rock-solid beliefs of police officers, well . . . what can I say but :rolleyes:?

Like much of the evidence on prediction of criminality, what’s out there is mushy and subject to interpretation. See, e.g.,

http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/97-98/bill/asm/ab_0901-0950/ab_950_cfa_19970328_151636_asm_comm.html

And see,

http://www.channel4.com/health/microsites/0-9/4health/sex/shi_voyeurism.html

http://newsok.com/voyeurism-laws-to-go-high-tech/article/3238669/?tm=1209859866

Well, that’s a bit funny. Peters. heh.
Thanks for the links/info. I read through it. It’s more than enough for me to passively terminate the friendship. I never would pick him out as a rapist… but then again, I wouldn’t have figured him for a Peeping Tom either.

:confused: There’s obviously an error here.

Yeah, that confused me too.
Took me a few re-reads to catch:

bolding mine

So, that’s: 52% of the voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.

against: 18% of the total sample of sexual offenders, including but not limited to those described as voyeurs admitted to having sexual contact with a female pre-pubescent child outside of the home within the last year.
The study is suggesting that voyeurs are more likely to have sexual contact with children when compared to other sexual offenders. Seems that, in order to be helpful, we’d have to know what were the other designations applied to the sexual offenders in the sample group. For example: I doubt that any of the sexual offenders were designated as child molesters, since that I believe that offenders designated as child molesters would have a much higher rate of sexual contact with children compared to offenders designated as voyeurs.

Seems a shoddy study, or at least a shoddy report of the study- though I admit to not having followed the links.

Either or both are possible. I don’t have a copy of the study. Like I said, “mushy and subject to interpretation.”

It would also be important to know how many non-voyeurs were studied.

I don’t know. It could be argued that to a voyeur, the fact that what he or she is doing appears to be a “victimless crime” – I know it’s not, but it can appear to be – may be a factor. If a voyeur doesn’t get caught, his/her victim will never know what happened. That’s certainly not true of rape.