Probability question - Amazon Giveaway

Factual Questions
1

My apologies if this has already been answered in the Amazon Giveaway thread, but I’ve been wondering what the probability of winning a giveaway is?

The Amazon Giveaway features sellers promotional giveaways at a set rate (e.g. every 1000 visit/clicks until 5000 (max 5 winners) visits/clicks are reached). If you don’t win the giveaway, you get a special discount.

Now to the question. Since the winner isn’t determined randomly, at any given visit/click, AFAIK I could be 1 visit/click away or 999 clicks away from a win. However, unlike a traditional raffle with a set number of tickets and winner, where each non-winning number called increases my chance of winning by one, each visit/click I make is affected by the X number of others who are visiting/clicking after my most recent visit/click.

By my simple math, my chances of winner isn’t really 1/1000, but some other extremely small chance (virtually zero) since I could be 999 clicks away at any given moment. Correct? Or this there something more that I can’t figure out?

2

Are you able to click repeatedly until you win, or is it one click per customer?

3

Forgot about the details since I haven’t visited the Giveaway in a while.

I think you need to be a Prime member and though I thought some would allow you to refresh and try again, butI just visited and it may be only once per day (I get daily email notices). Also, some require you to watch 15 seconds of a video before you can click.

4

There are 1000 possibilities each time you click. You could be 999 clicks away, you could be 998 clicks away, you could be 997 clicks away, etc… down to 2 clicks away, 1 click away, or 0 clicks away. In the last case you win. In the other 999 cases you lose. Assuming each of these cases is equally likely, your probability of winning on each click is 1/1000. (I’m ignoring the 5 prize limit since there’s no way to calculate how that affects the odds without a bunch of assumptions about how many other people are playing, how often they click, etc.)