Say i flipped a regular coin and on the first try I got heads. If i flipped that coin again what are the chances of me getting heads. would it be: 1/2 cause there is 2 sides. 1/4 cause i have a 1/4 chance of getting heads in 2 tries ( 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4). or 1/3 (in between)
It would be 1/2. Getting heads for the first flip doesn’t change the probability of getting heads on the next flip.
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In two flips of a coin, there are four possibilities:
HH
HT
TH
TT
However, given that the first flip came up heads, the possibilities reduce to two:
HT
HH
You can see that of these possibilities, the coin comes up heads on the second flip 50% of the time.
jrf
And, assuming a fair coin:
if you flip it 999 times, and all 999 times it comes up tails, what is the probability of getting tails on the 1000th flip? 1/2.