Remember Iridium, the global satellite phone network? ICO was its less successful competitor.
The handsets were going to go for US$3000 each and they estimated calling costs at $10-25/minute.
According to Scientific American, just getting the network running (launching satellites, building receiver stations, etc), not counting staff, marketing or operating expenses, was $10 billion. When I asked who’d buy them, I was told “relief workers in remote areas, people on small ocean-going boats, businessmen who want the convenience, that sort of customer.”
There was no way they’d find enough customers to recoup their expenses even at half price. Unfortunately, the reason I know about them is because I was working for them (indirectly. I was producing the training courses for receiver station and satellite management staff. They went bankrupt before a single rocket launched, so it’s just as well I spent all that time surfing the net).
The one guy I’ve met who had a Segway had had polio as a kid, and had the associated atrophied leg muscles as an adult. He could stand just fine, but walking was a problem. He loves his Segway.
You reminded me of the E.T. video game made for the Atari 2600. I was only around 11 years old when I played it but I thought it was complete garbage, even at 11.
It turned out that that Atari had to dispose of millions of copies of the game by dumping them in a landfill in New Mexico.
Some guy I met about 20-odd years ago invented a board game to help kids with spelling. Admirable concept, but it sucked royally. He convinced us all to sit around the table and play it one night. Boring as shit, but he kept telling us how he was in talks with Milton Bradley and the likes, and he was going to be a millionaire.
Those Hulk fists from the first movie were a surprise hit, and were difficult to keep in stock even after the movie had left theaters and become a catalogue DVD title. The toy idea was so profitable that it’s been redone several times-- the new Hulk fists of course, as well as Thing fists for the two Fantastic Four films.
My own record on “products that won’t sell” is pretty good, but I tend to limit it to things sold OTC in my pharmacy. I’d say I have ~95% accuracy in guessing which items selected by the corporate buyers will be duds… it always makes me wonder why the corporate buyers seem to have no experience with pharmacy retail.
My latest pet peeve is “SlimShots,” little coffee-creamer-cup-thing-like “diet aids” that consist of vegetable oil, water, and flavoring. $25 for 21 coffee creamers. Corporate has forced over a gross of the things on us in the last few months, and we sell less than one a week. They’re also packaged in a flimsy box that has a tearaway panel to turn it into a desktop dispenser-- a tearaway panel that, in shipping or basic handling by customers, tends to pop open and spill 21 little creamer packets onto the floor. The manufacturer apparently realized late in the process that the box ends would be easy to open and “sample,” so they used adhesive dots all over the package to seal it shut… but the box is coated with glossy plastic, so the adhesive dots come loose and end up sticking to other boxes, display trays, collecting dust, etc.
I’m like some other posters here. If I say it’ll tank, it’ll become huge. My primary example:
In the early 1990s I worked at Hughes Aircraft in the satellite division. They were just starting to brainstorm DirecTv. The initial sales model was ridiculous. You had to buy the dish for around $700 + pay a monthy fee comparable to cable + no local channels. My opinion:"So it’s like cable TV with a $700 installation fee, but you still need an antenna to watch broadcast channels? Who’s stupid enough to go for that? It’s gonna bomb!!’
To all the people who are sharing anecdotes of people who use Segways:
My point wasn’t that they are not used at all. It’s that their level of usage doesn’t even begin to approach what the creators expected. And that the creators apparently expected them to be widely used by people without mobility issues as an alternative to walking or driving. That hasn’t happened.
I agree with the poster who mentioned Divx. I had exactly the same thought.
Also, the Microsoft Zune. “Hey, guys! Let’s make an iPod killer! But let’s make it brown. And call sharing music between users “squirting.” And use pics like this and this to advertise it! And, oh yeah, let’s not actually let them share much music at all, and only for a limited time! That’ll show those punks at Apple!”
I’d actually like to have a Segway. But not for the prices they’re charging for them. If I could get one for about $1K, I’d probably have to think about it.
Mountain Dew is currently running a campaign that involves 3 new flavors, and getting people to vote for which one will contine to exist.
I predict that people who want to drink something that doesn’t taste like Mountain Dew will go buy something that isn’t Mountain Dew. All 3 will be gone by the beginning of next summer.
We sell about 50/50 iPods and Creative Mp3 players, FWIW. As staff, we push the Creative MP3 players because they’re A) Better than the iPods (cheaper, more features, no iTunes) and B) They don’t suck (iPods seem to break down a lot and they’re a pain to deal with).
