Projecting the Electoral College for 2024

I realize we’re 12 years out, but humor me. What states are projected to

1)Move over 3 EV
2)Fall to 3 EV
3)Move over 10 EV
4)Fall under 10 EV

Florida. Rapidly changing demographics.

Texas. Similarly changing demographics.

Their populations aren’t going to fall to the point where they only have 9 EV.

This projection (PDF, page 7) says Rhode Island could fall to 3.

Noted that “Strong R” is slated to grow, others tread at best.

Montana is currently the highest-population 3-vote state, though I don’t think it’s projected to grow enough to gain a 4th any time soon. One of the other threemies might pass it up.

The Electoral College in 2024 is gonna have a winning football season and destroy Southeast Direct-Voting State! Go Electors!

They got no chance against the College of Cardinals or the Kollege of Musical Knowledge, though.

There was a lot of talk after the 2012 election by some red states of splitting their EC votes so that the winner of a congressional district would get that EC vote. That would change the EC in a big way.

Those were actually in states that consistently vote Democratic for president but currently have Republican majorities in their legislatures and Republican governors. Otherwise known as “the GOP trying to steal the presidency”.

But the Skool of Hard Nox might yet give 'em a run.