On March 9, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf removed Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry for “Abuse of office,” after Chaudhry publicly stated his opinion that it would be illegal for Musharraf to hold another five-year term. Since then there have been riots – led by lawyers! – all over the country, including a large protest in Islamabad today.
According to this analysis, that’s just part of Musharraf’s problems. He also has to deal with the Pakistani Taliban as a rising force in the Northwest Province, while simultaneously trying to satisfy the Bush Admin’s demands that he keep them from stirring up trouble in Afghanistan, which they are.
Meanwhile, there’s a long-simmering quasi-insurgency among the Balochs of southwestern Pakistan (there are also Balochi in southeastern Iran and southern Afghanistan – see this ethnic map of the region).
Can Musharraf hang on to power?
Can Pakistan hang together as a country, period?
How will all this affect the U.S. position in the region?
I’m not at all surprized that Benazir wants to do a deal with Musharraf
while from first hand knowledge (I met her a few times at Uni, and we had mutual friends) I don’t think she is that bright, but she is Westernised and smart enough to recognize savages that want to kill her.
Actually, Pakistan is a monstrosity that was founded for a spurious religion, and is half … well sort of civilized … and the other half is unbelievably primitive. It is rather surprizing that the place has not imploded.
Personally, if I were Benazir, I would talk to old friends from India, there could be mileage in losing the primitive bit and becoming a small part of something stable.
There is a great deal to be said for having a more verdant area than the Oman for live ammunition practice - perhaps the solution is to expand Afghanistan.
Second, cunt is an exceedingly insulting word over here. The kind of word that can easily set off violence and create all sorts of enemies, if you ever visit here.
I have no idea what it means to you in this context.
You will probably have noticed that in the past week the Australians have doubled their ‘commitment’ in Afghanistan. 500 troops is not a lot, but 490 blooded are potentially useful.
My hypothesis is that Afghanistan is a useful training ground, probably a lot better than the old sandpit - The Oman.
You will also have noticed the exercise in Germany, where the extras spoke Arabic.
Pardon me, I must have heard wrong. I thought I heard you say the UK and/or U.S. should intervene in foreign countries for the purpose of getting combat experience for our troops.
it is a combination of opportunism and containment
It was perfectly obvious that Afghanistan needed stamping on in 1979, instead we and primarily the USA turned it into a training ground for ‘insurgents’.
Now that it exists one might as well make use of it.
It is not a new idea, as I said earlier, it has been going on in the Oman since probably before you or I were born.
Afghanistan got that. From the USSR, the only country in a position to do the stamping at the time. Didn’t help, in the long run.
Oman has been stable and independent since 1970 – stable as an absolute monarchy, but at least there are no civil wars there. There are U.S. and UK bases, but it’s not a place where soldiers can get blooded.
Really, what on Og’s bloody Earth are you talking about? :dubious:
Well the Taliban are not going to be that easy to evict, and it does look as if they are getting reinforcements via Pakistan - ‘containment’ seems the right word.
Also the USSR had a very hard time of it. Essentially they cut and ran.
As for the Oman, I’ve heard odd rumours (and I know the SDMB is no place for them) also about 5 years ago I ran into an ex-soldier who had worked on out there as a ‘civillian contractor’, he dropped a number of hints.
Well Pakistan might go the way of Iran in 1979 and Russia in 1917
if you know any middle class Pakistanis then tell them to get out
Mediating peace between Israel and Abass would be like getting two magnets of opposing poles to collide - hard to prevent. Did you know that under that snake Arrafat, the Israelis actually armed the Palestinians ?
The USA would be well advised to learn how to to turn a ‘blind eye’ to things that happen in friendly states - those include Pakistan and Russia - with a bit of finesse the USA might even get Uzbechistan back in the fold.
Things said in private are OK, but public criticism, like Condo poncing around talking about ‘Uman Rites’ just annoys people.
The USA reminds me of a load of sanctimonious preachers, they nark China, Russia - they even supported the blasted IRA.
If the USA had said ‘fire engines’ when it came to Tiannemen square, especially with dye, then the Chinese might have understood - had the same happened in London or NY, then the reaction would have been ferocious.
@Brainglutton I’m beginning to think that you and I have a linguistic divide that makes communication impossible. Try to understand that British English is different from American English.
To answer your points :-
Revolutions are often led by solid middle class types - they are seldom left alive.
Israel and Abbas like each other - Musharraf is irrelevant, although it would do little harm having him around - mainly because it is essential that he, like Mubarak of Egypt, are seen as staunch friends of the USA and without them the ‘cargo cult’ will finish. People lose power because their supporters melt away - it really is a case of ‘king and clothes’.
No citations for Israel arming Al Fatah, I really don’t record conversations in my kitchen with Israeli clients that I’ve known for years. Ask Allessan or one of the others.
Turning a blind eye. Well the alternative is ‘how to lose friends and get people to hate you’ - with tribute to Dale Carnegie. If you understand anything about international relations then you’ll understand that p/ssing on your friends when they beat up an aggressor is pretty stupid.
As I’ve said before I hold Carter personally responsible for the fall of the ‘Shit of Persia’
he pulled the rug from under him
Don’t talk about the IRA - thankfully after 9/11 we can forget them
we got very close to killing them wholesale - check out the ‘Cortina gang’ - also there was something fishy about the Chinook that hit a Scottish cliff. ‘Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold’ - Yeats may have understood that things get out of hand - and turn ‘postal’.
Tiannemen Square - the Chinese had no idea of riot control, but they did know that large numbers of people are a potential riot. If we had the same in Trafalgar Square then our police would have gone in with shields and batons - perhaps you remember something similar in America. The decent thing would have been to give them a few tips on humanely clearing the area. As it happens fire hoses are excellent water cannon, and green dye is a good way of making sure that people go home. Some South American countries use liquid shit to disperse crowds - personally I consider dye more civillized. If you want a cite on sewage spraying I’ll give you the ISBN.
If you and I are going to have a scrap - and it looks like it, then we can pick a date in the Pit.
I speak British English well enough, and I can only make out half of what FRDE is saying - mostly because it’s all wink wink and “I know a guy who knows a guy who says…”.
Whose?
You really think it’s gonna be that easy?! So easy even Musharraf can do it?!