Remember the first words of my OP. I don’t want my thread to be closed because it got derailed. It’s a discussion worth having.
Yes, but as I said before, I’m not sure it’s possible to discuss this issue without passing judgment on the protestors or their cause. For many, the whole point of bringing it up in the first place is that they see coronavirus as more important than the protestors’ cause, and I’m not sure there’s any easy way around that.
I’m not sure I agree that the people who chose to attend church were demonstrating the strength of their convictions in the way that BLM protesters are. The protesters I know all seem to acknowledge the risk. They’re wearing masks and trying to spread out as best they can while marching to mitigate it, but they feel that it’s necessary to take that risk. Every church attendee I heard from was of the firm belief that Jesus would protect them from the virus. If you heard from any who said, “I understand the risk, but God has called upon me to do this anyway,” I’d be interested to hear more about that.
I definitely sympathize with the anti-police-brutality demonstrators, but…let’s be real honest: The virus could not care less about racial justice.
If we’re going to shut down restaurants, social gatherings, businesses and church services in the name of curbing the virus, it is utterly nonsensical to allow tens of thousands of people to gather together in close quarters like this. The virus isn’t going to shy away from infecting marchers just because the march is for a good cause.
Yes, forget Covid–we are going to have a pandemic of broken backs from people tying themselves into knots trying to justify how their large gatherings are okay but other people’s large gatherings aren’t.
It may happen ,may not. But of cause , it is a nonsense to have protests to be allowed while other social gartherings are still being prohibited,
So, based on the risk of viral transmission, under these circumstances police violence is justified to break up otherwise peaceful demonstrations, correct?
Or is it that there should be no other social restrictions if protests are “being allowed”?
Just making sure we’re being very clear what’s being argued here.
Over the past several months health experts have been warning people to avoid large gatherings and minimize their outings. If people do have to go out, even if just to the grocery, they’ve been told to take all sorts of precautions and to be mindful of social distance. They’ve been told it’s not a good idea to meet with friends or relatives, especially if those friends or relatives happen to be of a certain age.
What I worry about is people who’ve been adhering to the guidelines, however wearily, looking at these large protests, seeing that epidemiologists aren’t saying squat (or in some cases even expressing their approval of the protests), and wondering if maybe there hasn’t been some sort of gaslighting going on all along.
I can see a lot of folks, even those who may not be especially political or conspiratorial in their mindset, looking at this situation, thinking that maybe COVID-19 is under control, or wasn’t even really that bad in the first place, and throwing caution to the wind.
Well, yes. Police had no qualms about breaking up peaceful gatherings at churches, restaurants, bars, parks, playgrounds, etc. because of the deadliness of the coronavirus. (Which they were fully justified in doing, btw.) So it is perfectly reasonable for them to break up a peaceful protest if it represents a transmission hazard. The virus doesn’t care whether a protest is peaceful or not.
I went out yesterday and saw that only 1/3rd of people were bothering with masks. The last time I went out, two weeks ago, 2/3rds wore masks, so I think this is a valid concern.
The good news is that, because it had become so politicized along the lines Lockdown Left v Reopen Right, and the left generally has more influence in media, the general media message on COVID danger might have become somewhat exaggerated.
I don’t mean the death and hospitalization stats, which are what they are (subject to whatever margin of error, but I don’t believe the stats are cooked on purpose). I mean the subjective impression of how actually dangerous it is to engage in given activities. Some expressions of that were probably exaggerated along political lines IMO. Then the protests came and it was too uncomfortable from a left POV to harshly condemn participants for risking spreading COVID, even though it would seem a good deal more dangerous than things people had previously been called ‘covidiots’ for doing (small groups gathering for pictures outdoors was one thread here with some railing about ‘killing my grandma’, or whether a poster should tell his older relative not to go to a reopened church, though no evidence was given the church would not enforce masks and social distancing). But it could be that the protests are not actually going to release a big new wave of the disease (with due respect to Twitter threads I would take that as just unknown at this point), since a lot of the other criticized behaviors (up to and including busting on people not wearing masks outdoors with social distancing) might not actually have had much risk.
And an article today from CNBC, WHO says asymptomatic spread ‘very rare’
Could be the driving cause of infections was people not taking any precautions, and even moderate precautions, like say not attending crowded protests if you actually don’t feel well, which I hope was the norm, could avoid a really bad outcome. Though obviously the protests will cause some new infections. Opening more types of businesses will too.
But this has been an episode of inconsistency and whipsawing positions by politicized people. Although, what’s new about that?
If there ISN’T a second wave of infections, illness and death directly related to these mass protests, then we are being overly cautious about opening back up, or some people are going to think that we have been directly lied to about these dangers.
Healthy people without underlying health problems have not, and never were, the people dying from this virus. And since most of the demonstrators are healthy enough to be spending time out marching in the streets, there won’t be a wave of new infections from the mass protests.
Sure.
Yes, there’s a risk, it should be talked about and protesters should take measures like wearing masks. There must be someone making a buck with BLM-themed masks.
That having been said, I can see the situation being significantly different in that:
- Protests tend to be in large cities where the peak would be the first to pass.
- It’s young people who are most likely to fight it off, even if that does make them a contagion risk.
- Most importantly, sparks don’t last; The death of George Floyd was particularly, obviously, undeniably egregious and its footage was dramatic. There were going to be many other black deaths from police brutality but this was a really “great” example of it. BLM protesters struck the iron while it was hot. You can’t tell people: “Alright, hold your emotional state and motivation until COVID’s less of a problem.”
I’ve seen reports which say outdoor infection is rare. In one report of over 300 contract tracing of infections, only one was from outdoors. It was from a cafe. Certainly the protests are troubling, but it’s not clear if large outdoor gatherings are a significant vector of infection. I guess we’ll know in a few weeks.
What might lead to more infections are any indoor gatherings the protesters may have engaged in relating to the protest. Maybe they took public transportation, went to a restaurant afterwards, met up at a friends house, etc. Those indoor gatherings would be riskier, but it might not be too bad if the gatherings were relatively small.
See this from earlier post, WHO now says asymptomatic COVID spread ‘very rare’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asym…-who-says.html
Which is good if true. Because obviously it’s more practical to get people to be extremely cautious about spreading a disease when they don’t feel well than extremely cautious all the time, indefinitely.
It doesn’t mean the protests won’t increase infections, since there’s no guarantee
that everybody who felt queasy skipped the protests, and one sick person with COVID, if the ‘right’ person in terms of their individual biology, can apparently infect a large number of other people in a crowd. Same reason asymptomatic transmission being ‘rare’ is not as reassuring when it comes to big crowds. Nor is it clear how much loose masks actually help in a packed crowd. So on epidemiology side there seems room to be not totally pessimistic about the protests (obviously would help also if they wound down soon), but real risk. I’ve made my points on socio-political side and won’t belabor them.
By coincidence, i just saw this:
Washington DC metro sees busiest day in the past thee months
Note, there were still far fewer passengers than on a typical summer day.
Well, the good news, then, is that we are now into something like Day 12 of the protests and (at least per the sources available to me) there seems to be no dramatic upswing in COVID-19 cases in the cities hosting the largest demonstrations. It’s beginning to look like we may have a bit more leeway than we thought regarding viral transmission outdoors.
Which is good if true, because I can’t really get behind police violently breaking up peaceful demonstrations, whether because of a worry about increased viral transmission or because they just don’t like what they are demonstrating for.
Are you fucking kidding me? One of the biggest superspreader events in South Asia was the Raiwand Ijma or religious gathering in Lahore, Pakistan, which was all outside.
The 8th March Womens Day March in Spain was another one
In Italy a soccer match was the big spark.
In the UK the Cheltenham Festival was a super spreading event.