What would you imagine your odds of getting Covid over the next couple of months?

I’m thinking mine are pretty high. I’m not doing anything different than the past 1.75 years, but over the past couple of months several of the people I associate with have gotten breakthrough cases (all fully vaxxed/boostered.). Add in the holidays and the fact that my FIL recently died, I figure I’ll have more interaction with larger groups of people than I’ve had so far.

And just about anyplace I go, I see people being WAY more lax in their precautions. Such as folk going maskless in stores.

Then, my job is planning on calling us back into the office w/ the new year.

Basically hoping if I get it, it’ll be mild, ad I avoid any longterm effects.

Pretty low. Everyone at my work is vax’d as well as my family. Not really worried even if I do get it as I’m fairly confident the symptoms will be mild.

I’m not doing the mask thing anymore unless asked by the proprietor of a business.

I think the rational expectation is to expect to get Omicron with high probability at some point. And how severe it’s going to be is probably now beyond my control - I’ve done all I can do to ameliorate it by getting vaxxed and boosted. Most of the rest is a combination of genetics and what I have unknowingly been exposed to over the past year. (Viral load when I do get exposed is in principle something that is still somewhat under my control.)

But if I’m unlucky enough to get a breakthrough case that’s worse than mild, it’s going to make a huge difference WHEN I get hospitalized. So I’m continuing to be extremely cautious for at least another month until the dynamics and severity of the Omicron wave become clear.

I mean - for all of us, the purely selfish motivation to not be in hospital when the hospitals are potentially overwhelmed is obviously exactly aligned with what’s best for the hospitals and for everyone else.

Hence, I do not think this is smart right now:

Omicron is so infections that the exact dynamics and severity should become much clearer within weeks, so I’m not talking about going back into lockdown mode for another year. But I do think even purely selfishly it makes sense to be very cautious thru Christmas and New Year.

The odds of me getting it are very low.

Everyone at work is vaccinated. Remaining family is also.

I wear a mask to the grocery store and to the gal who cuts my hair; and laundromat.

Based on the new cases per week per 100.000 inhabitants (I know that changes, just a rough back of the envelope calculation) there will be 6.5 million cases in Germany (83 million inhabitants) in the next six months. So the odds appear to be under 10%.
As I am double vaccinated, will get my booster on wednesday, seldom get out, wear a mask and so on therefore my chances should be even better. I hope.
But you never know whether omicron or a new variant will turn out to be a game changer. I wonder how to visualize how contagious omicron is when I think that in a season in which the flu, a very contagious virus by any normal measure, has practically been wiped out it is spreading like wildfire.

Isn’t it possible that a fully vaxxed person can have an asymptomatic case, and transmit it to another fully vaxxed person?

In our state, it is still required. So it is a bit off-putting to go into a business and see a sizable portion of the customers AND staff unmasked.

I’m fully vaxxed and boosted (Moderna for all three) and I had covid in August (before I was boosted, about 5 months after my second shot). Delta, I imagine. Not too bad, but I definitely don’t want it again.

What are my odds? I really don’t know. I mask when indoors in every store, and masking is pretty universal (and required) around here. I’m scheduled to go back to work in-person for a minimum of two days a week at the end of January, and I’ve been going one day a week for the past couple of months.

But this is NYC–the rates of Omicron are high and getting higher. People do wear masks, but not always, not on the subway, and I do take the subway (not so much as I used to, but I do).

So, triple-vaxxed and previously infected, I think the odds of getting it again in any serious way are slim to none. But I think the odds of getting it again in a way that I would test positive…I would say those odds are pretty high for the next few weeks or so while Omicron burns through here. But luckily, it’s the holidays, so after tomorrow I won’t be going in to work for a couple of weeks. I don’t celebrate Christmas so no family gatherings or travel plans to worry about.

I would say I’m probably about as low-risk as it’s possible to be, and I intend to keep it that way!

(But I know plenty of people in almost my same state of risk…not previously infected, but triple vaxxed, and much younger than me and without preexisting conditions…who are utterly terrified. To the point of breakdown. That’s something I really am having trouble understanding and empathizing with.)

Possible, sure, but pretty unlikely.

It’s almost certainly more likely with Omicron, but nobody knows yet what the absolute probability is.

With Omicron taking off, linear dynamics are extremely unlikely.

This is an off the cuff guess: 3% probability.

I’m triple shotted with Moderna (not just a booster, which with Moderna is half strength, but a third shot, which is full strength). I wear an N95 mask in public, except that I do go to restaurants to meet friends, and take it off while actually eating, which I’m pretty sure is my most dangerous behavior. I avoid crowds and sitting with many people, e.g. theaters or concerts or dances.

But my spouse doesn’t wear a mask in public unless requested to, and even then sometimes she takes it off. Which really bothers me, and which we argue about.

We’re both senior citizens. She’s diabetic and I have chronic bronchitis. So, even with the vaccines, I’m a bit worried.

Indeed. But I wrote six months, I hope by the spring there will be fewer cases again, like last year. But we don’t know, and new variants are on the way.

I guess the likelihood I’ll get Covid depends on:

  • How likely is it that I will be exposed, which is based on (1) how much it spreads through my community; and (2) the extent to which I come into contact with other people.

  • If I am exposed, how likely is it I’ll get a breakthrough case even though I am fully vaccinated and boosted (all Pfizer)?

Since I can’t acurately quantify those factors, I guess I can’t say. Given that breakthrough cases of Omicron seem fairly likely, and case numbers are rising on Hawaii Island, but I don’t have huge amounts of exposure to other people, I guess it would not surprise me if I had a mild or asymptomatic case (not that I’d know if it was asymptomatic). However I think it’s more likely that I won’t.

I’ll change that prediction if the situation changes/new facts become known.

I have a friend who had COVID last year, is now fully vaxxed and got their booster last month, is pretty cautious, doesn’t know anyone who isn’t vaxxed, and we still have a mask mandate indoors here (and compliance is good). Their only risky behavior is the occasional dinner out.

And they just tested positive despite all that. Anyone who thinks their chances are low is probably fooling themselves, unless you truly don’t leave your home or associate with anyone else.

I’m resigned to it. I’m double-vaxxed and on a few waiting lists to get the booster, but won’t have that for another month and a half at least. I’m masking whenever I’m out in public (maybe I’ll have it off when I’m walking down the street, but if I enter any building or public transit, on it goes), and I’m even keeping a triple-layer cloth mask on while sitting at my desk at work. The only socializing I do is with my GF about once a week. I’ll see her family at xmas (everyone’s double-shot) and my own a few days after that (same). But I still suspect that I’ll get a breakthrough case and have to stay home from work for ten days or so. It’s fatalistic to say, but every report I’m reading about Omicron says basically, just brace yourself and if you’ve been smart about shots so far you’ll get through it, most likely.

I remember when I moved to L.A. and was buying a car out there, the dealer said something to the effect of, “…oh yea, at some point you’ll lose everything you own in an earthquake.” with a shrug. Kinda how I feel these days.

Just my personal anecdote, but I know of several people who claimed to have been extremely careful. Several of those people eventually got Covid. Every one of those people (a limited sample) ended up having had some pretty significant “exceptions” to what they had previously described as near total isolation.

Agreed. Being truly “extremely careful” means never leaving the house and not associating with anyone. That just isn’t realistic. So everyone has their own exceptions, which we’ve all rationalized as not that bad, not like all those other idiots.

- “I might have dinner out once a month, but it’s only with people I know are fully vaxxed. At least I’m not going shopping with a bunch of strangers, some of whom can’t even wear their masks properly.”

- “I might go shopping, but I’m always wearing a mask. At least I’m not going out to dinner with people unmasked.”

Many of us have gotten away with these exceptions so far. I don’t think that luck will last with Omicron.

I’m of the opinion that for anyone who goes out to eat in a restaurant, all bets are pretty much off. The few I have been in have been a total joke, w/ people taking their masks off as soon as they sit down, then putting them on again when they go to the washroom, etc.

I know ONE person (one of my kids) who was CRAZY careful. She and fiancé basically isolated in their apt, went nowhere indoors, ordered everything on line.

She and her fiancé didn’t catch it. Now that they are vaxxed, they’re pretty much saying, “Fuck it. If we get it, it will be mild. And if we give it to an unvaxxed idiot, that’s on them.”

Pretty much this with the exception of the masks. Everyone in my office is vaxed, nearly everyone has had the booster. WRT masks, it’s still mandatory in my building, and in my state, they still require them to go into stores, shops, malls, theaters, restaurants, and basically everywhere else.

I’d rate my chances of getting covid in the next couple of months at maybe 2%, just based on the environment and the odds of breakthrough cases (I have the initial vaccination plus the booster). I’m reasonably confident that IF I get covid it will be a milder case…just reverse the previous odds, so 98% if I get it I should be fine.

I’m trying not to think about it. I’ve had three doses of Pfizer, still mask, and have avoided being around kids. But we’re flying to St Martin in January and I’d rather be sitting at home, to be honest.