I am torn. Pujols is one of the best hitters in the game. And it’s clear he he still has a few great years ahead of him.
But how many? When this contact is up he will be close to my age and my bones creak when I get out of bed. Plus, the Angel’s history with big name free agents is not that encouraging. AND, are the Angels now prohibited from making other moves because of the shear size of the contract?
Well, the Angels added C.J. Wilson also.
Pujols will still be in his prime in 2012. This just might get them a Series championship then. It’s worth a lot of losing afterward to get one of those. IOW, it’s worth it.
Probably a little bit of both. It’s an overpay, even a significant one, but the difference between a $220 and $250m deal over 10 years is not that huge. A bigger question is whether the Angels really needed to add a guy like Pujols when they had a pretty decent first baseman last year, and numerous other players in the 1B/3B/DH mix.
I think the Wilson deal is the one that’s more likely to go sour. Pujols is nearing the end of his prime, but he is unquestionably great and he gives them a lot of things: at least a couple of great seasons ahead, the abillity to compete for a few titles, more fan interest, and he should bring in more fan interest now and in the future, since he has a shot to challenge for the home run record. They can move some of the other 1B/3B/DH guys to other positions or trade them if they need to.
Adding Pujols and Wilson makes them the favorite to win the AL West, I think. I mean that is an impressive pitching staff and an offensive boost.
If you’re going to overpay, Albert Pujols is exactly the kind of guy you do it for (and, conversely CJ Wilson isn’t…).
In the end it’s Arte Moreno’s money, and he has a lot of it, so if I were an Angels fan I’d be excited. I’m not sure they’re as good as the Rangers, but it’s much closer now than it was yesterday.
As a Cardinals fan I’m bummed, but understand that St. Louis just doesn’t have the kind of revenue opportunities that LA does, and can’t afford as much risk. Pujols falling apart two years into this deal will dent the Angels, but it would ruin the Cards.
The Wilson signing was actually quite good. He’s been worth at least 4 wins each of the last 2 years, so the Angels are getting a bargain. He also signed for a discount because he wanted to play in LA so badly. (Supposedly, the Marlins offered him 6 years for $99m, which is not only a year longer but a larger AAV than the Angel deal.)
It’s a good question. It’s a lot of money. It’s a gamble. But, . . . Pujols is a superb player.
There is probably a lot of upside just in having a guy like that on the roster. The first test will be the number of season tickets sold for next year. That alone might be huge and hedge the gamble. Remember, the storied Dodger franchise is in turmoil. This may be a case of the Angels sensing a window of opportunity and they’ve decided to roll the dice.
Season oWAR Age.
2007 5.8 27
2008 7.8 28
2009 7.7 29
2010 7.4 30
2011 4.5 31
If you’re the Angels, you’d better really hope that 2011 is an aberration like 2007. That, and that MLB doesn’t develop an effective HGH test…
Not to mention that he gets to enjoy AL pitching now. As an Astros semi-fan suffering through the end of the Carlos Lee deal, I think it was a lunatic contract, but I understand why the Angels did it.
My kneejerk reaction was that (likely) 4 guaranteed great years of Pujols wasn’t going to be worth the probable 6 years of really bad contract but then I read this article by an ESPN writer who covers the Dodgers that linked the increased publicity of having Pujols coupled with the new TV deal for the Angels might make this contract nowhere near as painful as it seems like it could get. With that in mind I think it probably was a good deal. I don’t think they are a lock to win the AL West, Texas is still a damn good team, but they also have a surplus of first basemen and outfielders that they can trade away to help load up their farm system. If they handle this well they could be set for a while even if they don’t win a WS, and with their pitching rotation they can easily give Texas a real fight for the AL West title for years to come.
I think St. Louis got lucky. Personally, I don’t think Albert has 5 good years left, so to get saddled with a 10 year contract would kill them. Albert is not in the best shape (he’s not Prince Fielder, but he’s 31 and he is overweight.) His body will start to break down. He did the right thing by going to the American League so he can DH, but $25mm is a lot to pay for a DH. Without steroids, his body won’t heal quickly like Bonds’ did. And if he’s also clean from HGH, then he’s going to follow the decline of most larger power hitters… the knees will go first.
I keep reading how the Angels think this will help their global brand and make their franchise worth more. They are expecting at least a $500mm return on this investment, so if that’s true, they didn’t overpay.
St. Louis will be fine, and they are still the best organization in the National League. For them to pony up $220mm, 10 year deal and not have to pay it is a win-win. The fans can’t be mad at the team, and management now has money to spend.
I don’t think the Angels will benefit from these moves in the long run. But in the short term (next 2 years), they may make the playoffs and maybe even win a championship. If that’s the result, I guess it’s worth it.
He’s certainly not bad, but I think he’s getting overpaid because he’s the best pitcher available in a weak free agent class. Then again, the Angels need more pitching, and maybe it’s not overpaying if you’re getting what you need.
HUH? I agree that he’s eventually going to be a DH, so the AL makes sense, but how is Pujols overweight?
Normally, free agent signings are subject to the Winner’s Curse, but in this case there was another team offering more money AND more years to Wilson and he still took the Angels’ offer. That makes me feel that they offered him a pretty reasonable contract.
IS MLB going to start testing for HGH?
Yes, it’s in the new CBA. I don’t know if Albert is in danger of failing, but it would carry a 50 game suspension.
Is the test for HGH that MLB uses even effective or is it more of a fig leaf? I had thought that rigorous HGH testing required the use of a biological passport, like they now use in professional cycling, as HGH’s half-life was much too short to identify and that its metabolites and levels of same were indistinguishable from someone not using the hormone. This article explains some of the methodology behind the HGH Isoform test that MLB uses. Of course, the test won’t work if alternate isoforms are added to recombinant injectable HGH. I’m sure that hasn’t happened… No way that an elite athlete making $10M+/yr will try to find some way to extend the long tail of their career.
The test will catch the stupid and the poor, and it will be something MLB can point to when the next 40 year old performs at an elite level.
This post at Fangraphs, particularly the comments, go into some detail towards answering the question, “Is Pujols’s contract out of line, considering the historical costs and trends for each WAR, and projections of the future rate of monetary inflation?” In my quick scan of them, the comments seemed to indicate that Pujols probably was not overpaid, though the downside risk was a lot greater than the upside.
The comments seem to use WAR, and it feels like everybody generates that statistic in slightly different ways, but they feel that if Pujols get to ~40 WAR over the contract, it will have been worth it.
As I think that inflation is going to raise its ugly head within the next ten years, I tend to agree with those comments. $25 million in 2021 won’t feel like the crazy numbers that ARod’s Rangers contract yielded.
I think Stink Fish Pot misspoke. The word he was looking for is BUFF.
Hell, by end of this contract Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu will be awaiting the imminent arrival of their AARP cards.