I understand that, but I’m saying those two types of contracts are related. If young players get paid a bunch of money based on potential, older ones will get more money based on their achievements. And they’re not contracts “of the last year.” My examples came from the last three years. That still excludes similar contracts from before 2009 like Barry Zito and Vernon Wells and Todd Helton.
This offseason alone, Aramis Ramirez signed for three years, Lincecum for two, Rollins for three, Heath Bell for three, Beltran for two, and lots of others for four and five.
So no, I don’t buy the idea that the only way to get top-level talent is by committing to a ten-year contract that runs until a guy is in his 40s. It may be the only way to get Pujols, Votto, and Fielder, or other guys who are in the middle or just past their peak – but that just means you don’t sign guys in the middle or just past their peak. Either lock them up early, or be prepared to let them walk.
I don’t have any data, so feel free to correct me with facts, but IMO signing a guy to a 7 or 8 year deal at ages 27-30 will lead to a bad contract much more often than not.
Lincecum doesn’t fit in that list, he was arbitration-eligible, meaning he was going to be a Giant one way or the other the next 2 years. The only question was whether they would agree on a salary or allow an arbitrator to determine it.
The other guys are not top-level talent–they’re all well into their 30s and as such carry a significant amount of risk.
What’s that you say? Aramis Ramirez, who older than Albert Pujols and not as good, got a lesser contract than Pujols? And Beltran, who is older than both guys and has been diminished by serious injuries, got an even lesser contract? That’s crazy! Clearly this system is broken.
I stand corrected on Lincecum; but yes, players in their 30s carry more risk … which is why, IMO, you don’t sign players in their 30s, such as Albert Pujols, to mega-long-term contracts. That’s my whole point.
I’m not saying anything’s broken … but since, as we speak now, both those guys have produced more than Pujols, for less money, this season, without carring the massive long-term obligation, at the moment they look like better signings.
Now you can extrapolate and say that the odds are very good that by the end of the year Pujols will turn it around and be a better player than those guys, and you’d be right. But I can extrapolate and say that the odds are very good that by 2019 the Angels will be paying $24 million a year to a guy that looks like the tail end of Mo Vaughan.
Why even insult him to that extent? If he’s producing like Beltran or Aramis Ramirez at that point, the contract is a bust if you haven’t won a championship. And that’s the point - guys like A-Ram and Beltran will always be available for cheaper, so spend your big bucks signing a guy entering his prime.
You can’t meaningfully compare the value of contracts by talking about how the players have done for two months.
Just to give us some basis for actual comparisons, here’s Wikipedia’s list of biggest sports contracts. You can sort by sport alphabetically to group all the baseball contracts together. I’ll try to take a look at them later and see if I can pull out the ones of the kind Furt is talking about (older player, long term, etc.).
I looked at that list earlier- it’s where I picked the names of the players I mentioned as getting deals similar to Pujols the last few years. Somehow I didn’t notice the fact that 12 of the 13 biggest deals were for baseball players. Anyway here is my list of the biggest baseball contracts, with the season-age of the player for the first year of each deal. I think I got this all right. The Kevin Brown deal is still a headshaker. Brown was the first member of the $100 million deal club and he is still the older player to get a contract of that value. The Ryan Howard contract still makes me wince. He’s husky, 32, and coming off a major knee injury and his contract still hasn’t even kicked in.
Rodriguez (2008, age 33)
10 year, $275 million
Pujols, Angels (2012, age 32)
10 years, $240 million
Rodriguez (2001, age 26)
10 yaers, $252 million
Votto, Reds (starts 2014, age 30)
10 years, $225 million
Fielder, Tigers (2012, age 28)
9 years, 2014 million
Jeter, Yankees (2001, age 27)
10 years, $189 million
Mauer, Minnesota (2011, age 28)
8 years, $184 million
Teixeira, Yankees (2009, age 29)
8 years, $225 million
Sabathia, Yankees (2009, age 29)
7 years, $161 million
Ramirez, Red Sox (2001, age 29)
8 years, $160 million
Tulowitzki, Rockies (2011, age 26)
10 years, $157.8 million
Gonzalez, Red Sox (2012, age 30)
7 years, $154 million
Cabrera, Tigers (2008, age 25)
8 years, $152.3 million
Helton, Rockies (2001, age 28)
11 years, $151.5 million
Crawford, Red Sox (2011, age 30)
7 years, $142 million
Santana, Mets (2008, age 29)
6 years, $142 million
Soriano, Cubs (2007, age 31)
8 years, $136 million
Wells, Blue Jays (2008, age 30)
7 years, $126 million
Zito, Giants (2007, age 29)
7 years, $126 million
Werth, Nationals (2011, age 32)
7 years, $126 million
Howard, Phillies (2013, age 33)
5 years, $125 million
Hampton, Rockies (2001, age 28)
8 years, $121 million
Lee, Phillies (2011, age 33)
5 years, $120 million
Giambi, Yankees (2002, age 31)
7 years, $120 million
Holliday, Cardinals (2010, age 30)
7 years, $120 million
Beltran, Mets (2005, age 28)
7 years, $119 million
Griffey Jr., Reds (2000, age 31)
9 years, $116.5 million
Reyes, Marlins (2012, age 28)
6 years, $106 million
Brown, Dodgers (1999, age 34)
7 years, $105 million
Lee, Astros (2007, age 31)
6 years, $100 million
Pujols, Cardinals (2004, age 24)
7 years, $100 million
You can’t meaningfully compare the value of a ten-year deal given to a guy who’s 32 without realizing how historically rare it is for even the best hitters to produce at all-star levels past their mid-30s.
Here are the most similar hitters to Pujols at age 31:
Jimmie Foxx (851) *
Ken Griffey (848)
Frank Robinson (845) *
Hank Aaron (843) *
Lou Gehrig (827) *
Mickey Mantle (810) *
Mel Ott (796) *
Juan Gonzalez (773)
Willie Mays (765) *
Manny Ramirez (757)
A pretty damned impressive list, right? You know how many really good seasons those ten guys had past the age of 36? About nine. Maybe 11 or 12 if you count Griffey going .277/30/93 in 2007 as really good. Ten superstars, all but one or two going to the hall of fame, and on average they only had one good year past the age of 36. Several were done by the time they hit 37, and the ones who were playing were pretty much producing at replacement level.
At the time he turns 37, Pujols will be only halfway through this deal.
Of course, a lot of those guys played back in the dark ages; Pujols has the benefit of modern medicine, right? Guys today play longer.
In the last 20 years, in all of baseball, only 32 times did a hitter 37 or older put up a season with even 3 Wins above replacement. The only guy ever to produce more than two such seasons was Barry Bonds, and I think Pujols may find it hard to emulate Barry’s unique key to late-career success.
At the time he turns 37, when most everyone who’s not juiced is having their last all-star seasons, Pujols will still be under contract for 5 more seasons and $120 million.
It’s not “insulting” the guy to point out that he’s a human being, and with the exception of one or two laboratory experiments, even the most gifted and motivated human beings are rarely top-level baseball players when they are past 35 or 36. They slow down, they get hurt, they lose their edge. They’re human beings.
AFAICT, there are 4 scenarios by which this deal can be said to pay off:
- The Angels win a championship, with Pujols as a major contributor.
- At some point, the Angels are able to deal Pujols, meaning they get the good years and make someone else eat the last half of the contract.
- Baseball salaries and/or the economy as a whole continues to inflate, so that by 2020, $20 million dollars for a league-average DH is normal.
- On top of what he’s already done, Pujols is one of the three or four greatest over-36 players of all time.
I’d put the odds of those happening at something like 20%, 5%, 10%, and 5%. Ergo, the odds of the deal panning out, IMO, are somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 3.
Looking at that list Marley gives, a lot of those deals are not crazy: all things being equal, locking up a guy in his mid-to-late 20s through age 34 or 35 is a reasonable move. Locking up guys already past 30 to very long-term deals is a very, very different thing.
The metaphor James used way back when was that the team who nurtured a superstar (minor leagues, early struggles, low salary) “baked the cake,” and the team who signed him young in free agency (prime productive seasons, big money) “ate the cake,” and the team who signed him to a post-prime contract “did the dishes” (declining productiveity, but huge contract). It’s changed a little bit since the 1980s, but I still it’s wise to avoid doing the dishes–often doing the dishes is bundled into the price you are asked to pay for the privilege of eating the cake, but with some cakes I’d let someone else have that pleasure. The cost of Pujol’s 2012 and 2013 is more than megabucks–much of that is disguised as his salary for 2020 and beyond, when his productivity is certainly not going to be worth what he’s being paid.
That said, the only situation in which I’d be tempted to overpay is Pujol’s spot: a guy whose main value is offensive, so that if he declines you can at least put him at a spot (DH) where he won’t hurt you defensively, a guy whose offensive productivity so great that a decline won’t reduce him to a non-starter, a guy who’s good with his teammates, in the AL (so DH is possible), for a team that right now is competitive for post-season play.
I agree that many of the deals are not crazy. Some were clearly stupid at the time and others went bad, but others made sense. One that does end up looking good is Miguel Cabrera, who was one of the youngest guys to get a contract this big. I remember he got off to a bad start in his first year with the Tigers, but had plenty of time to bounce back and has continued to produce despite his personal problems. I wonder what kind of contract he’ll get a few years from now. And obviously Pujols’ first big contract with St. Louis was a very good deal for the Cardinals and it’s a big part of the reason he wound up with an enormous contract this winter.
Just for fun I wanted to run through these.
Rodriguez (2008, age 33) 10 year, $275 million
See below about Teixiera, but at this point this deal isn’t looking great. Rodriguez stopped playing at an MVP level immediately upon signing this. 0 for 1.
Pujols, Angels (2012, age 32) 10 years, $240 million - Dunno yet.
Rodriguez (2001, age 26) 10 years, $252 million
One can argue about the specific cash value and stuff but there is little question Rodriguez played fantastically well while this contrct was running. 1 for 2.
Votto, Reds (starts 2014, age 30) 10 years, $225 million - Dunno yet
**Fielder, Tigers (2012, age 28) - 9 years, $214 million **- Dunno yet, though I really, really do not believe this can possibly be worth it
Jeter, Yankees (2001, age 27) - 10 years, $189 million
This was worth it. 2 for 3.
Mauer, Minnesota (2011, age 28) - 8 years, $184 million
It’s early but I think it’s safe to say this was a failure. I understand why Minnesota did it, but Mauer has lost something. 2 for 4.
Teixeira, Yankees (2009, age 29) - 8 years, $225 million
Everyone talks about how Alex Rodriguez is soulless, but really, does Mark Teixeira have a soul? I can’t recall anyone who was so nakedly, unashamedly in baseball solely for the money. At least he was honest about it. Anyway, I’d call this contract a failure; his first year was good but he’s not really an MVP player anyone. But it’s the Yankees; their cost factors aren’t the same as other teams. I’m saying 2 for 5.
Sabathia, Yankees (2009, age 29) -7 years, $161 million
This is working out reasonably well and inasmuch as Sabathia is the only pitcher the Yankees have they can really trust, I’d say they’re happy about it. 3 for 6.
Ramirez, Red Sox (2001, age 29) - 8 years, $160 million
Ramirez, according to some analysis, is the worst defensive player in the history of baseball, an assessment I find very easy to believe (unless you count players who didn’t play much.) If you ever had a chance to watch some Red Sox games in person and just keep your eye on Manny for a few innings, he was just amazingly, amazingly bad. I can say without a trace of humour or irony that my recreational old-timers slo-pitch league has several outfielders I can think of offhand who are vastly superior defensive outfielders, in their late 30s and 40s, than Manny Ramirez was when he signed this contract. But holy shit could the dude hit. He had the best swing I’ve ever seen.
This this work out? Well, Manny played well for the whole deal. The numbers try to argue his glove put him below MVP levels but that argument’s drowned out by all the World Series rings and the Bosox had the money. 4 for 7.
Tulowitzki, Rockies (2011, age 26) 10 years, $157.8 million
Too early to tell. Working out so far, but we’re not a season and a half into it. I think this has a good chance of being a great deal; Tulowitzki can hit and he fields a key defensive position extremely well.
**Gonzalez, Red Sox (2012, age 30) 7 years, $154 million **
Too early to tell. If he has more seasons like last year this’ll be a good deal. If he hits like he’s hitting this year it will not. Unfortunately, heavy first basemen do not age well. I think this is a likely fail.
Cabrera, Tigers (2008, age 25) - 8 years, $152.3 million
This seems to be working out. Cabrera has led the AL in on base percentage two years in a row and for all his personal issues he rarely misses a game and hits like a monster.
Helton, Rockies (2001, age 28) - 11 years, $151.5 million
I’ll call this a good deal. Helton had many good years, Coors or not, under this deal. 5 for 8.
Crawford, Red Sox (2011, age 30) - 7 years, $142 million
I know it’s early but this is an obvious fail. It’s not just that Crawford was bad last year; now he’s hurt. And the fact is Crawford was never a great player. He was EXCITING, fun to watch, but he wasn’t an MVP candidate and it should have been obvious he had no chance to be. He’s a left fielder whose career OBP was about .339 going into last year. 5 for 9.
Santana, Mets (2008, age 29) - 6 years, $142 million
Santana has pitched quite well for the Mets when he’s been healthy, that being a pretty important phrase. I’ll call this a fail, though not an epic one. 5 for 10.
Soriano, Cubs (2007, age 31) - 8 years, $136 million
5 for 11.
Wells, Blue Jays (2008, age 30) - 7 years, $126 million
Last year Vernon Wells had a .248 on base percentage. That was the worst on base percentage by a starting outfielder since the Yankees still played in the Polo Grounds. 5 for 12.
Zito, Giants (2007, age 29) - 7 years, $126 million
Ha ha ha ha ha. 5 for 13.
Werth, Nationals (2011, age 32) - 7 years, $126 million
Scott Boras’s finest work. 5 for 14.
Howard, Phillies (2013, age 33) - 5 years, $125 million
What a stupid, stupid decision. An obvious fail even though it hasn’t started yet. 6 for 16 (I missed counting Miggy)
Hampton, Rockies (2001, age 28) - 8 years, $121 million
- Don’t start a land war in Asia.
- Don’t go in with a Sicilian when death is on the line.
- Don’t sign a fly ball pitcher to play in Colorado.
6 for 17
Lee, Phillies (2011, age 33) - 5 years, $120 million
Too early, but working so far. Pitchers are funny.
Giambi, Yankees (2002, age 31) - 7 years, $120 million
Giambi had some good years in New York, and $120 million to them is $60 million to other teams so I’ll give them this one. 7 for 18.
Holliday, Cardinals (2010, age 30) 7 years, $120 million
Working so far but too early to tell.
Beltran, Mets (2005, age 28) - 7 years, $119 million
Beltran played better for New York than people think he did. What the hell, 8 for 19.
Griffey Jr., Reds (2000, age 31) - 9 years, $116.5 million
Injured. 8 for 20.
Reyes, Marlins (2012, age 28) - 6 years, $106 million
Dunno yet.
Brown, Dodgers (1999, age 34) - 7 years, $105 million
Brown gave the Dodgers four very good years, but he was paid for seven and this paid off with no rings, so I’m calling it a fail. 8 for 21.
Lee, Astros (2007, age 31) - 6 years, $100 million
A horrible deal. Lee put up some big homer and RBI numbers but he wasn’t really an All-Star level player at all with Houston; he’s a big fat dude who ran the bases for crap and fought first base more than he played it. 8 for 22.
Pujols, Cardinals (2004, age 24) - 7 years, $100 million
This is an easy win. 9 for 23.
So I’m calling it 9 for 23, not counting most really new deals. That’s not actually as bad as I expected.
That’s a good summary, and I agree with most all your calls. I’d almost put Yankees in a different category, though, as their economics really are different from everyone else’s. Without them, it’s 6-for-18.
One third is kind of what I expected, and I agree excluding the Yankees is a useful exercise, since we’re primarily arguing about the value these contracts hold for other teams. I probably should have excluded Yankee deals. (I’d include A-Rod’s first big deal, even though most of it was played in New York, as a Rangers deal.)