A phased withdrawl plan where the US basically goes into a defensive posture while Iraqi units (in theory) would take up the burden. I used to think this was possible but I have serious doubts that it is anymore. I’m starting to think that we will either have to stay there for a long ass time or get out of dodge and let the chips fall as they will. Either way looks like disaster from where I’m sitting.
Of a phased withdrawl I expect that things will quiet down once it becomes clear we are leaving…and then the situation will explode once we are gone. Its possible (though not probable) that the Iraqi military will be able to hold together…at least in some places.
If we stay I think we will get pretty much the same thing we’ve been getting the last few years. A constant low grade insurgency, constant violence, no real way to repair the infrastructure or make things better. At least not for the forseeable future.
If we get out of dodge I expect the entire country to explode. I think people will be shocked as to how very bad it will be if we go this course.
Murphy is not only alive and well in Iraq he’s practically in charge there. I’d say my biggest regret will be for the Iraqi civilians who are going to have to face the music when (not if I don’t think) we tuck tail and bolt. And thats going to be a big bill for them to have to pay.
If you are looking for a worst case thing that could go wrong I would have to say that we get a full blown multi-factional civil war AND a regional conflict when Iran, SA, Syria and their pals decide to put a toe in. Oh, and we get all this right smack on top of the worlds major oil reserves.