Why is it any of our business what kind of government Iraq has? Whats wrong with pulling out and letting the people have what the people want? If we quit monkeying around with other peoples’ nations maybe we wouldn’t have to keep looking over our shoulder and worrying about setting up bases all over the world.
Put up or shut up. What is the plan for “staying the course?” What detailed paln do you propose to achieve the goal of establishing a peaceful and democratic Iraq to serve as a beacon of hope to the Mideast?
I measure it in potential…or maybe a better term is possibility. Is there any possibility that the whole thing may NOT go in the crapper? Have we done all that we reasonably can, and its a lost cause? Is there any potential that Iraq could pull through if we give them the chance?
Thus far I don’t see that all is black, that the situation is hopeless, and that there is no even remote possibility that things could still work out (to some degree…defined atm by myself as 'That Iraq doesn’t completely melt down). If there is even a CHANCE that by our staying things in Iraq may not go completely tits up, if the Iraqi’s are at least TRYING to make it work…then I don’t think we should leave.
By no means though do I think we should stay there indefinitely.
Um…did you actually read what I wrote? It doesn’t remotely resemble ‘staying the course’. Its not remotely similar to either what Bush et al are saying OR doing atm…nor is it likely that they will suddenly decide that my way is best. ‘Staying the course’ involved doing what we’ve BEEN doing…which I definitely don’t advocate.
And I beg to differ with you, but I don’t believe that Bush has made it HIS policy ot ‘Draw down US forces as Iraqi forces can take over’ since day one. I believe that his enduring freedom bases (or whatever the fuck they were called) sort of runs counter to this idea in fact.
Since the invasion? I’d estimate that it has dropped, but no idea how much. Its certainly fluxuated though.
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The OP asked first. Sorry. Feel free to start your own thread, though! 
A turning point battle! Excellent! But what happens if we lose?
I know but I couldn’t resist. I’m tired of ordinary working stiffs being asked to come up with a plan when even our government “experts” don’t seem to have any discernable plan for achieving their stated goals.
Withdraw American Troops from the urban areas and bring in more Iraqi troops to do what US national guardsmen are basically doing. After that, keep around 50,000 in bases around the country in case of future problems. Also, emphasis on US Marines and Special/Intelligence services in monitoring/attacking and destroying terrorist infrastructure.
But what Xtisme said, train train and train some more the Iraqi security forces, and for what it’s worth, the Iraqi Army is somewhat respected by most of the population, and officers are being trained at Sandhurst and some NATO countries which is a good step. Only the police are held within much disregard and abhorrence. And with this, if they want any cohesion and stable society to emerge, get rid of the damned militias, especially Sadrs, because he is the main impediment of any sort of societal progress coming about.
Short-term: Vietnam re-unified at the expense of millions of refugees fleeing the communist leadership.
Long-term: A couple decades later, Vietnam instituted economic reforms and eventually re-established diplomatic relations with the U.S. after we ended our embargo on the country.
Short-term: The re-unified Vietnam removed the murderous Khmer Rouge from power.
Long-term: Lots of fighting has gone on since then between Vietnam and the Rouge holdouts.
Longer-term: A peace accord was achieved in 91. In '93, they established representative democratic monarchy. Despite some factional fighting in '97, the nation has managed a degree of political stability.
As Merijeek pointed out, the “train the Iraqi army” scenario is the CURRENT plan. How exactly do we do a better job training the Iraqi army, when we seem to be doing a terrible job at it right now, even though that’s the official plan?
It’s one thing to train the Iraqi army, but we aren’t going to get an effective Iraqi army just by wishing harder.
You forgot the precursor step, which is to get rid of the Bush Administration and replace it with sensible leadership that genuinely believes in diplomacy and international coalition (and no, John Bolton doesn’t count).
The depressing truth is that the current leadership has gotten us into a big mess, and there’s no way to get out of it with grace or dignity. The only question is if the American populace are mature enough to admit we screwed up by allowing these morons to get us into this mess (and snubbing our allies) in the first place, or if our national pride is worth more than the lives of our servicemen over there.
NATO and the US/UK are training Iraqi officers, this is where I get kinda at odds with the people who tend to regard the Iraqi army as some huge failure, where we’ve effectively built one up from nothing (yes we could of retained the former one, what was left of it) and sent it out into the field, and with it’s problems of logistics and capability, it is actually becoming an effective force.
Training is one step to help the security forces, making sure Iraqi soldiers are able to rely on a good network supplying them with goods and services they need to protect the country in general is another.
No, it’s not a game. As I have often said, I regard America as destructive; a nation largely composed of near-sociopaths and religious/politcal loons. The longer we stay in Iraq, the more harm we will cause because that is what we do. I don’t believe we are capable of doing better, or willing to seriously try.
You assume that the majority of Iraqis have loyalty to the system we’ve set up, or to the idea of a unified Iraq. The Iraqis have no motivation to help us; bringing them along on patrols and such would just mean dead weight, assuming they don’t take the opportunity to massacre the American troops and claim the insurgents did it.
No, we’ve done enough damage, yes, and no.
In your dream world perhaps. In the real world, they are composed of people getting training and weapons for the eventual all-out civil war, and people who took the job so they can eat in the economy we’ve ruined and twisted.
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Accept that, thanks to our meddling, there will be a civil war in Iraq (if it hasn’t started already), regardless of whether U.S./UK troops stay or go.
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Resolve not to take sides in that civil war. We’ve done enough damage. There is no way we can intervene and hope for any outcome beneficial to the Iraqis or ourselves.
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Schedule a phased withdrawal of troops lasting no more than six months.
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Hand over the keys to our “enduring bases” to whoever is nominally the national government at the moment the last soldier boards the last transport.
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If the Iranians should intervene, bite lip and recall point 2.
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Try really, really hard to forge good relations with whoever wins the civil war. This includes conceding that all the ostensibly unalterable laws put in place by the Coalition Provisional Authority are, in fact, alterable, and making clear the U.S. will make no fuss whatsoever if the new government should repudiate any reconstruction contracts awarded to U.S. or Brit corporations during the occupation.
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Try to open serious public debate on the legitimacy of lynch-mob justice as applied to the bastards who got us into this fucking mess.
You want a plan?
I would start by taking hat in hand and going to all of the nations in the area including Turkey and saying, “We** really** fucked this up, guys, and we desparately need your help in resolving the situation.” followed by an apology for being such a bunch of dumb shits. I would also tell them that plans are underway to remove our military from Iraq. At the same time I would tell our military to start assembling the plan for the details of the logistics of getting out by next spring some time.
I don’t expect the appeal to the regions government would accomplish much but I think it needs to be tried.
What would be the result of this plan? Since we don’t have a chance of resolving the Sunni-Shia division, a lot of bloodshed finally ending up by having replaced the brutal and repressive Saddam regime with a brutal and repressive Shi’ite theocracy.
Alternatively we can stay there for another 10 or 15 years training and equipping the Iraqi army and police forces and then leave, having replaced the brutal and repressive Sadaam regime with a brutal and repressive Si’ite theocracy with a well trained and equipped army and police force. In the meantime there is the distinct possibility of rending the US financially insolvent.
Sorry but not all problems can be solved to our satisfaction. Especially those problems that are created by a ham-handed approach to world affairs.
Nuke them from orbit, of course.
Seriously, it depends on how we lose. Lack of national will? Get the hell out, as the Powell doctrine (still a good idea) would tell us to. The IDF can’t hack it? Fine. Leave, and say they’ve had their chance. Not enough resources? Ask the country - draft or get out? (I’d pick get out myself, and I’m way over draft age.) But assuming competent leadership (and I forgot to mention that there are a few generals pushed out by Rummy I’d invite back in) if we lose there is no use throwing more good soldiers after good soldiers.
I’d also ask Bush, Cheney and Rummy for advise - even though I’d have to visit them in their cells at Gitmo to do it.
Well then for every reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction, so if people are gearing up for civil war, there will be at least an equal amount of people trying to prevent this from happening.
And not every Iraqi who goes into the Army is immediately labelled as a ‘militia member’ or ‘insurgent’ you know some are just normal people, sometimes without a political agenda and a motive of either having a job and protecting their country.
Will never happen, and the only way in which Turkey is going to Iraq is through Iraqi Kurdistan which will also, never happen.
Because political and economic factors will remain the same in Iraq in 10 to 15 years time? The Saddamite regime came about through a political ideology which was baathism, you won’t see another style of strongman like him in Iraq ever again. If push came to shove you’d see 2 theocracies and one democratically reforming Kurdish region in the north. And even then you won’t see the US withdrawing from Iraq completely, you’d still see a presence in Kurdistan, which would be rewarded with 40% of Iraqs petroleum reserves in Kirkuk. So even in a worse case scenario, they’re still coming out with a strategic partner who’d never refuse US help.
Yes, this is what will happen;
Forge really really good relations with whosever in charge.
Amnesty and other rights groups attack US foreign policy over appeasing what would be a mini Iran.
Back to square one.
Wow, talk about the hypocritical ‘two wrongs don’t make a right’
Fuck that, how about keeping those bases, send as many Iraqi soldiers as you can out into the field, withdraw the majority of US troops, most of the national guard, keep the Marines/Airpower and other Special forces in help of the Iraqi government, and use them as leverage against Iran and Syria from interfering openly with Iraqi internal affairs. You see, since most people here say ‘we broke it we outta fix it’ then let there be no pretenses, keep the bases, support the Iraqi government, and in the meantime, do what you can to limit the internal strife. Because in the end, that’s all what we can do, and I don’t see a withdrawal in picture at all.
No, they do not. OTOH, hanging W and Cheney and Rumsfeld from adjoining lampposts on Pennsylvania Avenue would not be a wrong in the first place.
Sorry guys, but I still don’t get it. I don’t see a whole lotta precedent for apologizing for military adventures gone wrong - unless someone more powerful beat you and has a gun aimed at you. Doing so opens up a whole world of hurt. Reparations and war crimes tribunals are only a starting point.
Hard to see how things would be worse with us gone, than they are with us there.
I freely admit that I don’t really care about the Iraqis, or the Israelis, Palestinians, Eritreans, etc. ad infinitum - at least not beyond economic and technological aid to willing recipients, so long as their domestic situations do not demonstrably adversely affect the U.S.
The billions of dollars that have been just pissed away - and that continue to be pissed away for no sensible reason, that my kids and grandkids will need to pay, that could have been spent here - just makes me sick. What a colossal fuck-up.
Declare victory, bring the troops home, and have a parade. Then participate wholeheartedly in whatever multinational effort develops to address the resulting hornet’s nest.
Yes it would, because you’re lowering the moral highground, and thinking that murdering them would solve all your problems.
Physics is not sociology; there is no such social rule.
On the contrary; unless the Shi’ites overrun it first, I’d expect the Turks to crush the Kurds in Iraq, sooner or later. They won’t tolerate anything resembling a Kurdistan.
Saddam’s regime came about because he wanted power; he was power hungry, not ideological. Present conditions are quite good for takeover by a strongman; Saddam himself could get lots of popular support.
First, the OP says “Put up or shut up: tell us your plan to get the US out of Iraq”, not “Should we stay in Iraq”. Second, having us there undercuts any government.
So ? Not that it will happen, but those would be good things.