OK, so I know a little bit about gambling… or so I thought.
I’m out with some friends last night and we were talking about the line on the Super Bowl, and betting in general.
Some members of my group stated that the line wouldn’t be exactly 7 points because the bookies don’t want a push because they won’t make any money. They felt that that’s why the line frequently ends in 1/2 points.
My fist thought was: :rolleyes: I was incredulous. I told them that’s wrong, the line is simply an arbitrary number that is set to balance out the money that is bet such that, if done correctly, all the losers pay all the winners and the bookies collect the juice in the process. Furthermore it’s not a prediction of how much a team will win or lose by, contrary to popular belief.
My questions are these:
Am I wrong?
2)If I am wrong, could someone explain it to me better?
3)In other words, couldn’t a line be 7 or 3 or any other number? (I know this is basically re-asking q1 again.
While I want to hear all thoughts and opionions… We’re all about fighting ignorance here. Therefore can someone provide me with something I can forward to these knuckleheads to show them I was right (or to show those wise friends of mine that they were right)?
I’m not an expert either, but you are essentially correct. One thing you are they haven’t accounted for however is that the line will usually constantly be moving, to balance out the overall betting. Many will place bets at something-and-a-half points, and many others at an even number. Remember too that just because points are scored in football are 7’s and 3’s (6’s, 8’s, and 2’s also, though much less frequently) pretty much any point differential is common and easy to achieve.
Also, don’t bookies keep the fee with a push? Seems like a best case scenario for a bookie- no risk of a lopsided side paying off- both sides break even, bookie gets the fees.
A typical bet might be that you risk $11 to win $10. To simplify, say that a bookie had two bettors. One bets on team A and the other on team B. If the result isn’t a push, then the loser pays the bookie $11. The bookie then pays the winner $10 and keeps $1. Also, if the bookie receives too many bets on one side, he can “lay them off” (sell the bets to someone who has too many bets on the other side).
I think you’re right. The spread, to keep it simple, is to get half of the action on each team, as you said. The spreads DO a pretty decent job of predicting scores but that’s to be expected since the information about the competing teams is open.
The usual procedure for a push on a spread is “no action.” If they take your money for a push you need to bet somewhere else.
There are a number of sports books that only have one half point spreads. This always seemed to me to be more profitable, but maybe the risk against swinging the betting one way or the other is too large set against the possibility of “no action” refunds. I ain’t Robert DeNiro.
You don’t usually see spreads move too much. This would open up the window of the books being sandwiched. For example, San Diego vs. San Francisco in the Superbowl: the spread, if I remember correctly, moved 3 1/2 points , from 14 to 17 1/2, against the Niners. That opens up the books to having to pay off on the bets that take the Chargers on the low end and the Niners on the high end. Someone makes big bank predicting what spread will split the action.
One thing that always makes me chuckle is when a big underdog, in this hypothetical case the Chargers, wins. Someone pipes up with, “Vegas is taking a bath on this one!” No, all the action was on the favorite and the Vegas books walk off with the difference. Go figgah.
Yes, you get your money back with a tie generally.
It’s preferable to set half point lines for books to prevent this. However, giving or taking that extra half point is often enough to shift the betting in an undesirable way such that you lose less by simply having a whole number than trying to create a spread that can’t be tied.
:rolleyes: I was incredulous. I told them that’s wrong, the line is simply an arbitrary number that is set to balance out the money that is bet such that, if done correctly, all the losers pay all the winners and the bookies collect the juice in the process. Furthermore it’s not a prediction of how much a team will win or lose by, contrary to popular belief.