First off, I am not overly alarmed over the SARS outbreak, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t mildly concnerned.
I can comprehend that a Quarantine could be very effective in controlling an outbreak if the virus/whatever was only in one location. However, this Virus (I’ll assume Virus for the moment) has apparantly spread pretty much world-wide already. Is it possible to control or contain it with Quarantine measures now, or is it just going to slightly slow the inevitable?
From what I understand this has been extremely resistant to all known treatments. Lets say we have to develop a brand new treatment from scratch. Realistically, how long could this take? In my uneducated opinion, I would suspect any reliable “treatment” pr cure would take at least months … if not years to develop. I would suspect if that is the case the Virus would be in pretty much every city/town on the planet by then… or at least almost all of them.
I watched a TV show that interviewed a head Doctor that specialized in tropical diseases. He mentioned that there is a “good chance” that this is a cross-over from an Animal. The good news is that generally, if that is the case the virus usually peters out on its own after a few generation/mutations/whatever. Is that true? When will we know if that is the case with this bug?
Looks like the quarantine is working here in Toronto, but only because it was applied very quickly and extensively. Even so, it’s segregated only a few thousand people here at most… life in the city is not greatly affected if you’ve been outside a hospital the whole time.
Two cents: A cheap quick way to limit airborn (cough/sneeze-spread) disease transmission is face masks, filter paper or fabric. Add hand-washing, it’s cheap and easy also.
People have to wear them for them to work, so they are most likely to be used if SARS gets beyond the control of quarantine in some area and starts spreading through the population, and the authorities do a P-R campaign.
One hopes that there is not excessive fussing and hesitation on the part of the authorities on this issue. Possible causes of such would be uncertainty if it’s really airborn, questions as to the % effectiveness of facemasks (it wouldn’t be 100% but could be close), etc.
There are two SARS cases in my county at this time.
From the numbers, it looks as if the fatality rate is maybe 3% of the known cases. I’d wear a mask but otherwise not alter my life much.
“this Virus (I’ll assume Virus for the moment) has apparantly spread pretty much world-wide already.”
The unamed virus that causes corona virus pneumonia (CVP) is not that widely spread at this moment. Although it is in an astoundingly large NUMBER of countries, in most countries only a handful of people are infected, typically one or more travellers who have recently been in Asia, some of their close contacts, and some health care providers who have treated them. The total number of cases is less than 2000.
“Is it possible to control or contain it with Quarantine measures now, or is it just going to slightly slow the inevitable?”
I think it is possible to contain it. The Chinese have the most experience with over 1000 cases in Guandong province. Despite their screwups, they seem to be getting control of the epidemic there. Other countries, with the benefit of more information, better medical facilities, more rational public health policies, and newly developed diagnostic tests should do much better.
“Lets say we have to develop a brand new treatment from scratch. Realistically, how long could this take?”
There isn’t any way of knowing but you could compare this new disease with AIDS; how long did it take to come up with a treatment for AIDS? If CVP responds to existing antiviral agents (and there is some reason to believe it might) then we will have a treatment as soon as someone demonstrates that the treatment works and publicizes that fact. On the other hand, if no existing antiviral works it could be many years before an effective treatment is developed.
“I watched a TV show that interviewed a head Doctor that specialized in tropical diseases. He mentioned that there is a “good chance” that this is a cross-over from an Animal. The good news is that generally, if that is the case the virus usually peters out on its own after a few generation/mutations/whatever. Is that true?”