Another problem with these stories is that the betting pattern itself will affect the outcome of future events more and more as time goes on so that his information his future won’t be relevant anymore. That is chaos theory in action. Almost anything can produce big changes in the system given enough time but betting large amounts of money in ways that attract attention would do it rapidly because it affects people and perhaps the players that go to the events.
Another problem with these stories is that the betting pattern itself will affect the outcome of future events more and more as time goes on so that his information his future won’t be relevant anymore. That is chaos theory in action. Almost anything can produce big changes in the system given enough time but betting large amounts of money in ways that attract attention would do it rapidly because it affects people and perhaps the players that go to the events. The person in the story would get a nasty surprise if he depends on outcomes that occurred in a timeline that doesn’t exist anymore because he altered it.
Yes, bookies respond rationally and reasonably to all customers.
FWIW this concept is not ignored in this particular novel, in fact it’s a major aspect of the plot.
Thanks all for the replies.
Tell us, in a spoiler box please, what novel you have mind?
I perhaps should have said “By the end it becomes clear that it’s a major aspect of the plot” - with that forewarning if you want to know it is
11/22/63 by Stephen King
The bookies aren’t going to assault him for winning. What they will do is notice that he is always winning and, assuming underworld ties (USA underground bookies) want to know how he does it. They would use a little “persuasion” to get him to reveal how he gets his inside tips, with an eye to exploiting them. After all, who cares if they scare him away? Theya re not making any money off him, he’s costing them. If he won’t tell them his system, then all it’s cost them is a little sweat equity and maybe a favorite baseball bat or two.
Considering that whatever the illegal bookies have to pay him - as a long shot bet especially - is money out of their pocket, the incentive is to reduce his earnings or let him leech off someone else. All they would want from him is a small bet or knowledge how he did bet, since he never loses.
Ah, thanks. It’s already on my list.
The stories about violence by bookies is overplayed in fiction. People who don’t pay on their losses will get threatened a lot before any real action is taken. Broken legs don’t pay bills. Homicide is extraordinarily rare, it’s hard to collect betting losses in probate court. If a bookie thinks someone has a way of beating the odds, he’s more likely to offer them a partnership than threaten or harm them. It’s also unlikely that a bookie would take much of a loss in these circumstances. They won’t take large bets that can’t be hedged. And unlike a casino, the bookie isn’t the house, he’s just a broker, if you cheat somehow, you’re cheating the other bettors, not the bookie.
If he were smart, he’d spread his bets around. Different bookies, and plenty of bets on long shots he knows are going to lose. The bookies don’t hate winners, they hate cheaters.
Actually, they pretty much do. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be in business for long. They are businessmen first and foremost. Any bookie with a regular winner like that would LOVE that customer. They’d probably limit the customer’s max bet and then bet the same picks with a different bookie.
Character I won’t name is able to get very long odds in his favor because the bookies are positive he’ll lose since he’s making seemingly ridiculous bets. They assume that they’ll never pay out so they probably ignore his bet when they’re balancing out they’re bets. When he wins it probably puts a financial strain on them. They are violent unstable individuals after all, so they go after him out of anger.
Also remember that time, or whatever, seems to be throwing roadblocks in the way of his plans, so maybe unreasonably violent bookies are just another of those roadblocks.