At about $95,000, married, with four kids, standard deduction, I paid about $3500 in federal taxes.
If I’m doing the math right it appears I will pay zero or close to zero under the same circumstances under the new tax plan.
Is that plausible?
Did you remember that while the standard deduction doubles there’s a 100% decrease in the personal exemption? With six personal exemptions last year and zero next year it doesn’t seem to make sense that your taxes would decrease that much.
Pretty much.
See: Tax Plan Calculator by Maxim Lott
While your taxable income (after standard deduction and personal exemptions) jumps from $57,000 to $71,000,
your child tax credit jumps from $4,000 to $8,000. The child tax credit is the big change for you…
n/m
But, you get $2,000 credit per child, and if I’m understanding things correctly, the credit comes off your tax bill. Which is much better than a deduction, which comes off your taxable income.
Is that right? I don’t have any dependents, so this is not something that affect me and that I pay much attention to.
Correct. It is a credit, which means it directly reduces your tax liability. A portion ($1400 of $2000) can actually reduce your tax liability to a negative number.
They’ve also significantly bumped the phase out for the credit (up to $400k for married, jointly), so a lot more people can claim it.
Yeah, so even if you’re in a 25% tax bracket, a $1,000 credit = a $4,000 deduction. (There isn’t a 25% tax bracket, but there is a 24% bracket that kicks in at $82.5K taxable income.)
Man if things like this are the case for most people it is going to so easily fool us into thinking the tax plan must be a good thing.
Oh well. I’ll take my money anyway.
Yeah, you probably did the math right… remember when 47% of the country “not paying any taxes” was a bad thing?
Damn. Wow, that seems like a low tax burden. Or maybe my accountant isn’t as good as I thought he was. 
Or maybe I need to have two more kids.
I didn’t see anything in the OP about child care expenses. I don’t think the credit is automatic, it’s 35% of actual expenses. There are a lot of dependents who don’t incur any child care expenses.
It’s not child care expenses, it’s a tax credit per child. It was $1,000 and now it’s $2,000. Per child. This was the thing that Rubio made them put in.
The trick comes from the expiring rates. I am actually getting taxed on more of my income than before (about $1,500 more will be taxable) but will see a temporarily lowered rate. Once that rate expires, my taxes actually go up.
It’s basically the same thing as a 0% intro rate credit card with a 24% APR waiting around the corner. But, yeah, people get those and think it’s a great deal so who knows how many people will be tricked.
Same situation here.
Politically, who knows, it may actually work. It worked for the “Bush Tax Cuts”; people became accustomed to the lower rates, insisted on keeping them, and we just decided to run larger deficits permanently. The ACA wasn’t very popular until people got used to it and Congress threatened to take it away. And so on. Granted, the fiscal situation is different than it was 10 years ago, but who knows how people will be voting in 2025.
Things like this are the case for most people. We are collectively borrowing $1.5 trillion from our grandchildren.
Wow, you people with children are making out like bandits. I should run out and get a couple.
My children have aged out, so maybe I need to adopt some kids from folks that makle more than 400k per year.
They both still live at home (they are in college) and cost more than they did when they were little.
I can insure them up to the age of 26, I think the child tax credit should be extended till the age of 26. 
According to the calculator linked above, we’ll end up with perhaps $100/month extra compared to current law. Since we’re losing our older kid as a deduction in 2018 (she graduated college this year, just completed an internship and starts her first “real” job in January), I think that ends up putting us even with this year’s tax liability. So, yeah, we won’t notice this at all.
According to that calculator we should be paying ~2,000 less in federal income tax next year. Since we pay more than 10,000 in state and property taxes, we paid the second installment of our property taxes this week to take advantage of 2017’s unlimited SALT deductions. It seems odd to take advantage of a tax loophole.
If you’re going to run a massive deficit, perhaps there is some logic to using some of that debt to bribe people to have more kids. Larger future workforce.