I’ve always said that the solution to the slow decline of oil would come from the market. Prices will go up, and resources will start to flow to alternatives.
Well, here come the high prices. I’m not sure we’ve seen the last of cheaper oil, but it’ll never be $14/barrel again. Might not ever be $40/barrel again.
And that’s a good thing. If it truly represents the relative supply vs demand for the stuff, then that price is sending us important information. So things will start to change.
We don’t need hydrogen fuel cells to save us. There are a number of technologies that are going to be very soon available. Electric cars, for example. The GM EV1 has been driving around for years, and the owners love them. They have a range of 55-95 miles. But they’re old technology. The newer batteries and electric motors can achieve ranges of hundreds of miles with reasonable power available.
In the meantime, we’ve made great strides with engine technology. New engines have good power and good mileage. My wife’s car has 227 HP and gets 29 mpg on the highway.
These two developments are going to lead to a new type of hybrid - the plug-in hybrid. The big limitation in all-electric was the need to provide a battery large enough to accomodate that 10% of trips where you need to go more than 100 miles. But a plug-in hybrid only needs to have a battery big enough to give it commuting range, maybe 30-50 miles. Much smaller battery, and you can have more horsepower.
Another revolution is in manufacturing of cars. The Lotus Elise uses an advanced hydroformed ‘bathtub’ frame to give it strength with light weight. The car weighs 1800 lbs, and as a result it can perform like a Corvette except with 180HP and get over 30 mpg. Take that same chassis, put a 60 HP engine in it, and you have a fine commuter car that has a hybrid drivetrain that rarely even switches the gas engine on, because he can make it to work and back on a charge. The gas engine might start once in a week or something, and he might average 500 mpg when commuting.
Then throw in flex-fuel capability: gas, gasohol, ethanol, whatever. That’s probably what the car of the future looks like, at least in the next 20 years or so.
And the nice thing is, if we figure out hydrogen fuel cells, the cars can remain almost unchanged, because the car’s drivetrain stays electric. It will be easy to transition to hydrogen from that stage.
There remains the electricity, and where it comes from. And this is where I think we’re going to have to admit that we need to build a whole lot of nuclear plants. A couple of hundred of them, anyway.