Frankly, I see this as more likely than #4.
That’s why it’s position on the list is 3.5 and not 5 :p.
On a more serious note, I think that option 1 is the most likely in the short term. If things drag on for a few more months, however, then option 2 will become more likely. If things go on past another several months with neither option 1 or 2 happening, say by the time summer vacations start, then sadly option 3 might be what we end up with.
To late to edit.
As far as option 4, the only way that happens is the Woodrow Wilson scenario. If Trump has a stroke and someone else runs the presidency from behind the scenes, then some real negotiations might happen.
Interesting, but Edith Wilson didn’t have to worry about Woodrow’s thumbs still being able to generate tweets that would steadily undermine any regent’s attempts to restore sanity.
Related, though, an invocation of the 25th Amendment is potentially in play, and I can see a medical crisis for Trump, even if not a debilitating one, spurring it into action. I’m sure it’s crossed Pence’s mind a few times.
I think the GOP senate will cave first.
The democrats know they were elected to stand up against Trump. And Trump is only motivated by his ego, and his ego won’t let him lose a negotiation.
Too bad he can’t just declare bankruptcy again. He seems fine with that.
The same Collins who said Christine Blasey Ford was raped by ‘somebody’ but it wasn’t Kavanaugh, so she could vote for him? She destroyed her credibility permanently in that moment.
My understanding is the senate already passed a bill 100-0 to fund w/o the wall. So they have the votes for a veto proof majority.
I’m not so sure that most of the Democrats believe that. I think we’ve reached the point where Democrats and Republicans are no longer playing opposite sides of the same game. Democrats are still doing what they believe is best for the American people. My personal belief is that Republicans have reached a point where they no longer care about what’s best for the people, all they care about is beating the Democrats.* That’s why the Republican Senate hasn’t already done something, and why I think there is a chance Trump and the Republicans can still come out on top of this whole mess. That’s also why I believe Trump waited until after the midterms to set his foot down on the matter of the wall. He had two years with a Republican congress to get it funded, but he didn’t because he doesn’t think that the wall is something that actually needs building, but rather that it’s something he can use to rally his voters against the Democrats.
*ETA. I don’t mean that it’s just about a Republican candidate beating a Democratic candidate. I think they want to purposely screw over Democratic voters as well.
I’m still loving scr4’s idea: what happens if the Democrats okay funds for stringing some barbed wire from Point A to Point B, and Trump (a) promptly signs off on it, and then (b) says that’s a wall of barbed wire? And the Democrats presumably reply with a quick oh, hey, that’s not actually what a wall is; and Trump, being Trump, presumably replies with a quick yuh-huh; and, well, who wins and who loses?
The Democrats should agree to build a wall, but stipulate it be made of biodegradable materials.
I think the Democrats will cave eventually; their constituents will more immediately feel the financial pinch of the shutdown. Lots of Republicans feel that federal workers are a parasite on the system and that the federal budget is much healthier without so many of them on the payroll - so the fact that the shutdown delays their pay is a feature and not a bug in their eyes.
“I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it”
Twitter video link to Trump’s statement.
You do realize that the Federal employees are going to get paid, right? And that we’ll have to pay them their back salary even though they weren’t working, right?
This is like saving money by refusing to pay your credit card bill.
Trump really wants that SOTU. Bad. He might go somewhere else and ramble and sniffle and stumble over his words for an hour, but it’s not the same. Networks might not even cover it live. Nancy refusing to play ball might be an out. His ego might win over his fear of looking weak.
Plus any other things Nancy can do to tweak him. Can she cut off his cable? I’ve heard a lot of jokey suggestions like forbidding tax money to be spent on WH fast food or demanding that Trump personally meet with Nancy and Chuck every day early in the morning for all day meetings. But little needling things like that are going to push him closer to the edge. When he gets to the edge, he’ll either cave or snap (Emergency Declaration, etc).
So that’s how I think it’s going to end. Pelosi’s going to outsmart him every step of the way. Mitch might be clever enough to battle her successfully, but Trump also is terrible at taking advice and then following that advice and then following through with that advice completely. Trump has no good advisors. Can’t fully trust the Senate, can’t fully comprehend that he needs them and he’s in over his head. He’ll torpedo anything helpful that’s not immediately and publicly petty and get himself into a corner that will end in his defeat. Defeat by capitulation or defeat by overstepping, I don’t know, but defeat nonetheless.
They passed a continuing resolution by “unanimous” voice vote in December when Trump was willing to sign. He then changed his mind over night. That’s different than saying they have the votes in a roll call for a veto override on even a short term CR let alone appropriations for the rest of the year.
And more importantly, they’re terrified of breaking with Trump and losing the GOP base.
Just in case Mr. Nylock chooses to not believe you or thinks this is some trick from democrats:
If only McConnell would let the senate vote on this we might have an answer to this. Wonder why he will not allow it? McConnell blocked it again today in fact. Fourth time I think.
I’m curious where, at this point, they think the GOP base will go?
Here’s my theory. Pelosi is 78 years old. She had opposition in her primary race, and opposition from within the party leading up to her election as Speaker. She knows this will be her last time around.
Up to now, Trump has gotten his way by threatening to hold his breath until he turns blue. But Pelosi literally has nothing to lose. Imagine a game of Russian Roulette where Trump pulls out a revolver with one bullet, and Pelosi says, “Let’s make it interesting,” and pulls out a fully loaded revolver.
I don’t know if Trump has ever been out-crazied in a negotiation, but Pelosi is willing and able to try it and see what happens.