I mean realistic in terms of the actual situation and players involved. Trump went on TV on Saturday offering up a 3 year delay on DACA and TPS in exchange for the $5.7B he wants. Pretty much everyone knew this offer was DOA.
I haven’t seen a lot of analysis of anything else that’s on the table that could reasonably break the stalemate. We seem to be at a point where either house Democrats cave, or Trump caves, or they both cave and Trump gets a $2.8B wall, or senate Republicans cave and override the inevitable veto. Is there a point where the political pressure gets so intense for one of these three players to cave that that finally happens? Is there some grand solution that exists that just hasn’t worked its way to the forefront yet? Or does this just go on long enough for Mueller’s report to come out and dramatically change the political landscape?
Real good questions. I assess it similarly myself, and have no idea myself. It would be interesting to look closely into the affected agencies, and see what programs/payments have NOT been declared “essential” or covered by some bandaid or another, and which will cease at any time, affecting the pressure on the various actors.
Trump declaring emergency powers is one way (maybe the most likely).
Otherwise, I doubt anything will happen without serious and very widespread pain. Something like not enough air traffic controllers, or TSA agents, to run airline travel throughout the country. Or a serious accident or health disaster (like a widespread outbreak from tainted, uninspected food) directly caused by a lack of federal workers with a high casualty count.
But who knows? It’s impossible to predict what an inherently irrational and incompetent person like Trump might do.
This is a very real problem with defining “realistic” in this situation. They old cries of “Oh, he won’t do that” ring hollow after the last couple of years.
He’s already lost everyone that isn’t part of his base. He can’t afford to lose any of that, but it appears he is starting to. He may not feel pressure because Fox news probably hasn’t told him about this, but based on the polling trends being abysmal across the board for Trump and the GOP on the shutdown all I can say is, please proceed…
That hints at it - Trump will cave, but find some way to claim victory anyway, when he is told how on Fox & Friends. If that’s beyond them, Hannity will do it instead.
Trump is immune to shame. He said up front he’d wear the mantle and own the shutdown. He’s used the spoiled baby approach his entire life in business negotiations. Usually, the right thing to do is ignore the spoiled baby’s caterwauling and wait for him to mature. Won’t work in Trump’s case. He’s shown he’s not concerned about 800K federal employees being out of work. To quote Sheldon Cooper, “sometimes the baby wins.”
Trump has his own perception of the world, which is “whatever I say is right, even if it isn’t.” His own aides know he doesn’t like reading any report unless it contains his name every other sentence. Logic and reasoning won’t win him over because he’s incapable of understanding it. His truth is the only truth. Dems can possibly gain leverage by appealing to his vanity, but they won’t want to bow down to the spoiled baby. Ideally, Pelosi and Schumer would have to tell him everything he wants to hear, which is basically “You’re right and we’re wrong.” That’s how despots want to be treated.
Kissinger’s detente comes to mind, which is basically to ignore how despots treat their own people in dealing with them. That’s a momentary external situation. This situation is internal and ongoing, at least until Trump is no longer in office. The Dems would have to treat Trump like he was a benevolent ruler who loves his people. They can’t do that with a straight face for long.
Trump changed his mind on withdrawing American troops from South Korea because our generals told him WWIII would start if he did. Maybe if Dems could come up with a scary enough doomsday scenario he’d change his mind, but he’d fall back on “It’s my biggest campaign promise.” He at least thinks steel slats qualifies as a wall, so maybe they can whittle down the construction to a Schroedinger’s Wall - half wall and half not wall.
He’s also shown a flaccid concept of geography, thinking that San Antonio and Obama’s house had walls. Maybe if they use the approach Honey used in Doonesbury, all Trump would need is a few pictures to verify to him that the wall actually exists. It’d be a Moon Landing-level hoax for an audience of one. A similar tactic worked for Otto, King of Bavaria.
The only way Trump is going to get his wall is by agreeing to real immigration reform. The Dems might agree to a smaller amount with the expectation that funding gets yanked in two years, so who cares.
But that probably won’t happen because Trump has boxed himself in. If his supporters consider a 3 year DACA extension as amnesty, what are they going to think as real amnesty.
Trump won’t ever do it. If enough pressure gets put on Republican senators from rich constituents who are starting to lose money because of the shutdown, then it might happen.
The problem with Trump making any deals to get his wall is that he has a decades-long history of reneging once he gets what he wants, coupled with a Congress that is disinclined to hold his feet to the fire.
But ultimately, what most Senators care about is getting reelected, which involves not getting primaried. They won’t turn against Trump unless a majority of Republican voters turn against Trump.
Trump can’t fold because of his ego. The Democrats can’t fold because Trump can’t be trusted, and would certainly throw another tantrum in the future if he got away with this one. The only way out that I see is that the rest of the Republicans finally feel enough pressure that McConnell folds and allows a vote on a clean budget, Trump be damned.
It takes about four weeks to go through the entire veto override process if Trump wants to really dig in his heels. There are two rounds of 10 day signing periods that don’t count Sundays. There’s also a couple days each time between passage of the bill and it formally being to the President for the 10 day window to start. Not getting a deal where Trump signs the bill is a very slow and shitty way to reopen the government. Trump could paint a day 10 veto and refusing to sign the override as at least fighting the good fight to his base so I’d expect he’d be inclined to drag it out.
Trump’s painted himself pretty solidly into a corner. He didn’t get wall money in FY17. (Congress had passed a CR for early FY17 to allow the new President to submit input to the budgeting process.) He didn’t get his wall in FY18 and still signed the Omnibus appropriations bill to his base’s displeasure. Then he talked tough about owning a shutdown to get his wall. He almost blinked to sign a CR without it but then his base went ballistic and he changed his mind.
Until he has clearly lost a good chunk of that GOP plurality that got him the nomination he’s stuck. He doesn’t have a lot of room left to make a deal that doesn’t include at least a decent chunk of wall money. He might be able to make a costly deal where he gives up some larger Democratic priorities for a little bit of wall and paint it as a victory. That might not get him primaried when his base revolts. Other than that I don’t see much room for a deal until his base changes their minds about the shutdown.
Trump’s riding the tiger at this point. His base bought into the wall. They want a wall more than they support him. Until they tire of the shutdown or they get some wall money he can’t really dismount the tiger. They’ll eat him.
Airplanes will collide midair, or thousands of people succumb to food poisoning, or another thing like that, and the Republicans might just might think reopening the government is a good idea. I think it will stop when there has been a national tragedy caused directly by the shutdown. Best if it happens in Oklahoma or Arkansas.
It is fascinating to me, how craven the Senate Rs have become to their new master. Do they ALL fear being primaried from the far right? Have ALL of them (save Collins and a couple others) lost ALL shreds of responsibility?
I’m not sure if this is optimistic or pessimistic, but I think there will eventually be a compromise bill that will be equally hated by both sides, so that each side can claim the other side hates it more, and call that a victory. Maybe it will be $1 billion for additional fences (Trump can call it a wall, Dems can insist otherwise), $2 billion for other border security, and path to citizenship for a small subset of Dreamers.
Not that I wish ill toward the good people of Kentucky, and nor do I hope that any sort of disaster befalls anyone except Trump, but if we were going to pick a state for a shutdown-related disaster to happen in, Kentucky would be the one, if only because that might get Mitch McConnell to do something.