It’s hard to believe there’s not a thread on this yet. I’m giving seven options, of which I’ve chosen 2 to 6 months. I think this shutdown will last several months because Trump is too stubborn to give in and it will probably take that long for enough Republicans to change their minds to be able to overcome a veto. What do you all think?
2-6 months was my guess. Longer than 6 is a definite possibility, but I’m counting on people getting really pissed off before the 6 month mark.
It’s barely more than a wild guess (it’s as impossible to predict what Trump will do as it is a toddler), but I think it may only go on another week or two, and Trump will declare a (fake) national emergency and claim victory.
This is a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” type thing for Trump. If he doesn’t make a strong push for the wall, his base won’t show up in 2020 and he’ll lose. If the government is shut down till 2020, he’ll lose too for the chaos that will cause.
I predict it will be over in a couple weeks from now. He probably wants to see what the poll numbers are for his televised speech.
He’s handled this idiotically. This all should have been negotiated behind closed doors with no publicized numbers. He has no where to go really.
When do SNAP benefits run out? People get angry when their kids are hungry.
One of the things I’ve learned about Trump is that he always picks “damned if you do.” “Damned if you don’t” seems like a foreign concept to him, which is why I think he isn’t going to back down unless he can present the outcome as a win. Unfortunately in this case he’s painted himself into a corner and the only win is getting a wall. If things get really bad, I can see the Democrats caving on this and approving Trump’s 5 billion dollar wall, but I don’t see Trump giving in. A big part of how I think this will go down is the question of who will the public will blame more, Republicans or Democrats? I have no idea what the answer to that question will end up being.
I think it’ll take somewhere between 1 and 2 months before enough people feel enough hurt to convince enough senators to pass a bill and override a veto. A competent President, of course, would see this coming, and negotiate some sort of compromise before it got to that point. But Trump is so invested in the idea of “all or nothing” that what he’s going to get is nothing.
I voted 1 to 2 months because I think the Dems will cave in, approve some number that looks good to Orangeman (but never actually goes to any wall) and the shit-stained base gets to blame Democrats for another six months.
It’s been a few weeks now, so I see a month for sure. Dems might cave, but not until prominent Republicans (Trump never) change the plan. It’s creeping in now… “What 2000 miles of wall? No one is asking for that!”
My guess is about a week before a critical mass of air traffic controllers and TSA boarding-gate staffers call in sick or just outright quit in order to work at jobs that actually pay the bills. At that point, business operations will be disrupted to the point where major donors read the riot act to the Turtle and force him to emerge from his shell and fix the mess, saving face for himself and Sponge Blob Golf Pants as best he can.
I give it about two more weeks. Federal employees will lose one paycheck on Friday. As the second pay period looms, Republicans will cave. Losing two paychecks will turn Republicans into Democrats.
I’m the pessimist who voted for 1-2 years. As I’ve posted before, the Orange Butt Boil HAS to get that wall built. If he doesn’t, so much of his base will desert him that the GOP will no longer protect him and he’s going down.
It’ll be the longest shutdown ever. I promise.
Trump and the Republitards are nihilist. They don’t even have federal workers in their districts - well maybe the cowardly, spineless pricks we call “independents.”
Seriously, independents and moderates can go to hell. There is no place for you. You’re either on the side of heaven, or hell. Your choice, gonadless wimps.
I voted 1 week to 1 month. We’re already seeing quiet comments to The Washington Post from several R Senators talking about how something needs to be done. Gardner, Collins, Murkowski and such are feeling some electoral pressure. They can already hear the ads during their next campaigns.
Unfortunately, people with hungry kids don’t matter to Republicans.
I don’t buy that. Every district has federal workers. Most national parks are in rural red areas.
It will be another 2-3 weeks. The only way out is for the moron to declare a national emergency and let the courts hold up his plan to use the military to build that monument to himself.
I think some House Democrats and Republicans will get worried enough to force Pelosi to make some kind of compromise.
The House seats are always vulnerable and this shutdown will get the newest members very nervous.
The six year Senate seats are more secure. We’ll still see some heat from vulnerable Democrats and Republicans.
Seems impossible for the shutdown to last more than another 10 days.
Too many people will quit if they aren’t paid.
Until Trump is impeached, maybe?
This will probably be over pretty soon, though. I expect it to be measured in weeks not months. McConnell may be a psychopath, but one of two things is likely to happen, and before February: Trump will get sick of this; or enough of the caucus will decide they don’t want their next year to be the shutdown war, nor Trump’s Reichstag fire.
I don’t think this will reach past nine weeks, but the longer it goes, the more we have to look out for violent response by the disgruntled. Disgruntled federal workers are dangerous. If it went half a year, like a few of you are saying, the GOP caucus in the Senate could be culled to a minority, between assassinations, resignations, and defections to the Dems.
Someone give this person a megaphone. Better yet, a position as lead speech writer for Alexandra Ocasio Cortez.
I think he’s damned if he does there also. Those funds would have to come from reprogrammed military construction projects. And at $5 billion, that’s a lot of cancelled projects. These projects are badly needed as part of his “building up the military” plans, so he just opens up himself to justifiable criticism if he cancels them for his wall. The fool has put himself in a box, sealed it up, and somehow managed to kick it into the river. Plus he filled it with rocks before he got in. At some point, Republican senators will decide that they no longer need to be attached to the box.
Yep, I went with 1 week to 1 month. By the time Federal employees approach the loss of a second paycheck shit will start getting ugly really fast.
When it starts to take 2-3 hours to get through security at every airport, the pressure will become unbearable for the GOP toadies in the Senate.