From time to time, I hear stats like “85%
of the time, murders are committed by the
most obvious person,” or “You’re 4 times
as likely to be killed by someone you know
than a stranger.”
Clearly, though, these stats are based,
if anything, on solved murders.
Isn’t it highly likely that these are not
independent - that is, aren’t police more
likely to solve a murder if the obvious
person did it? If I may show a bit of my
liberal bias, too, I would generalize that
cops, even the detectives, aren’t the best
“thinking outside the box” candidates in the
world, and become convinced that it’s the
most obvious person when it’s not.
DNA has proved that some ‘solved’ murders
How valid are those statistics?