This should not be surprising. A two state solution that leaves Palestinians beholden to Israel for trade and genuine self-governance is hardly going to be perceived as legitimate. And as long as Israel continues to keep Netanyahu and his ilk in power, with his aggressive policy of creeping conquest, a majority of Palestinians are going to react against any Israeli overtures.
Look how easy it was to get the majority of people in the U.S. fired up to attack Iraq following the WTC/Pentagon attacks, despite the entire premise for the attack being based on and supported by lies. Creating conflict is a reliable and easy way to get poll results that show opposition to any sort of resolution. The leadership of both sides engages in that behavior to keep themselves in power.
I have no easy answer and I am pessimistic that anyone can provide the necessary leadership to resolve the issue, (at least without being assassinated).
However, any attempt at an explanation that relies on declarations that “those other guys” just do not want peace is wrong.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo;20664743
Israel can therefore legitimately ask if the surrounding countries would attack it again if it returned all Palestinian land and withdrew inside its original borders. Israel’s not going to withdraw back to some hypothetical borders unless it has reasons to believe other countries are going to respect those borders.[/QUOTE]
Israel has peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, both of which have continued more or less satisfactorily for many years. Lebanon and Syria have limited military power in comparison to Israel.
What legitimate issue is resolved by identifying who threw the first stone?
In 1948 and 1956, it was the Arab community.
In 1967, it was Israel.
In 1973, it was a smaller contingent of the Arabs.
In 1975, despite Lebanon being the least agressive Arab state near Israel, Israel chose to interfere with the Lebanese civil war.
Following 1973, the politics within each of the countries have changed in ways that made a future war less likely. Egypt and Jordan have actually pursued peace and trade with Israel. Even Syria was engaged in background diplomatic negotiations with Israel before its own civil war caused Syria to pull back from discussions. In addition, the U.S. has upped its support for Israel in ways that lets the other nations know that not only will the U.S. provide military support for Israel, but that attacks on Israel will cause the U.S. to withhold financial and political support for any nation that engages in such actions.
I do not believe that any serious Middle East politician actually believes that a future attack is likely, or even possible.
“Original borders” is a straw man that both sides use to keep their people hopped up with hatred. To achieve a lasting peace, it needs to be resolved through serious (and difficult) negotiations. However, continuing to plant new (or expand old) settlements outside the current borders does nothing to create an environment where such negotiations can occur.
As a some who isn’t a fan of identity based nationalism, I am not for or against either side, but man this seem like pretty bad rhetoric on the part of Israel.
It seems that they promised a agreement but don’t give someone an opportunity to study it, knowing that no rational person would sign in those circumstances then hold it over their head later.
You’re missing my point. I’m not arguing that it’s an issue of who shot first.
My argument is whether Israel should have a reasonable expectation of peace under certain conditions. The main condition that most people suggest is that Israel should return some territory to the Palestinians in order to secure a lasting peace.
So I suggested an extreme case: Israel not returning some territory to the Palestinians but returning all territory to the Palestinians. Giving the Palestinians back every square inch of land they held back in 1948.
I then asked if that would produce a lasting peace. And I presented the historical evidence that exactly that situation existed back in May of 1948: the Palestinians held all of their land according to the UN division line. Israel did not occupy any Palestinian territory.
And the result was not a lasting peace between Israel and Palestine or between Israel and its other neighbours. The result was that everyone declared war on Israel.
So I feel this is strong evidence that the hostility between Israel and the Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours is not due to Israel occupying Palestinian territory.
Your hypothetical relies on ignoring 70 years of changing situations in numerous countries. It also appears to be addressing a fairly small number of people. There is no groundswell of opinion that Israel will find peace if it gives up territory. There is, however, a recognition by many people that there will be no peace as long as Israel continues to annex more land.
It will take hard decisions and difficult choices by both sides to ever arrive at peace. Pointing to a situation in which most of the players had far less development (with less to lose if a war occurred) decades ago as the clear predictor of what would happen in the future is not realistic. There were four outright wars between 1948 and 1973–25 years. There have been no wars since 1973–44 years–despite such provocations as Israel’s incursion into Lebanon or Iraq’s effort to lure Israel into war during the Gulf War. Clearly Israel cannot dissolve the IDF, but there is no reason to believe that they would be attacked if they stopped building more settlements and met in open discussion for the purpose of abandoning the most recent annexations.
Jerusalem is their capital, other than Berlin in the Cold War I don’t remember a nation not recognizing another allied nations capitol. End of story, we should recognize Jerusalem as the capitol.
You’re right. it’s mostly due to them having a different religion. Hell, if Shi’a and Sunni are constantly in the verge of war, and they’re both Muslims, what would you expect?
The problem I see here is that military subjugation is hardly a wonderful panacea. You have to keep subjugating. Forever. And not only Palestine, all their allies in the region are going to have a problem with that.
Sometimes a very uncomfortable Mexican Standoff is better than a shootout.
That’s pretty much the way I see it. I have no idea what a path to real peace in the Middle East looks like and how to start down it.
But I lived through a good portion of the Cold War. The United States and the Soviet Union hated each other and had arsenals of nuclear weapons ready to incinerate each other and most of the rest of the world. It was not an ideal situation.
But bad as it was, it was better than an outright war between the two superpowers. So while there was no obvious solution to the Cold War, the best thing to do was just keep it from flaring up. We didn’t have real peace but we didn’t have real war either. And we just maintained that balance on a day-by-day and year-by-year basis.
And it worked. We just waited until things changed and one day they did change and the Cold War ended.
That’s the way I feel we need to treat the Middle East. Just try to keep the Israelis and the Palestinians from actively killing each other and wait until the circumstances for creating a real peace appear.
And how do we do that? Well, we avoid doing stupid shit like recognizing Jerusalem as the capital.
I won’t say there isn’t some truth in what you’re saying and the Israelis don’t have reason for concern but the Arab armies, with the exception of the Arab Liberation army, went into the war reluctantly and the Syrians, Jordanians and Egyptians were mainly jockeying for position with each other.
It was a very different time with vastly different governments with different motivations.
I’m not sure modern Egypt for example has anything in common with King Farouk’s government.
Well, there’s the rub. A bunch of outsiders declared that this large influx of other outsiders now ruled the land Palestinians (and native Jews) had lived in for years. Why should the Palestinians accept that division? After centuries of outside rule, their lands are given to newcomers? They will once again be subject to foreigners? How do you say “fuck that shit” in Arabic?
Yeah, it’s just like if you’re worried that your neighbour may attack you, the best self-defence measure is to move your family into his house and tell him if he goes near any of their stuff, you’ll kick his ass.
If the Palestinians actually represented a credible threat to Israel then those isolated settlements would be sitting ducks. They don’t and that’s why Israel can expand with impunity.
This justification for the settlement building fails horribly like the others: you can’t claim victimhood and annex land at the same time.
Believe me, sitting ducks is exactly the right term for these small isolated settlements. Do you know how much money and manpower Israel spends on protecting them? I’ve protected them myself, and seen exactly where all my tax shekels are going. Why do you think I want us out of there?
No you mean they would be sitting ducks were it not for Israel’s overwhelming military and logistics advantage over palestine.
What I’m saying is that the idea that Israel is so under siege that they have no choice but to maintain and expand settlements within the palestinian territories is anti-sense.
It’s saying I’m so afraid of what Bob will do to me that I must pre-emptively teabag Bob.
I agree. I’ve long believed that the settlements were a major obstacle to an effective military occupation, and that if we could just get rid of them, the army would finally be able to do its job.
Did you notice who wrote that? “Mark Regev is the Israeli ambassador to the UK”. He’s referring to the peace of conquest, not the peace of reconciliation.
Trump’s declaration might have helped advance peace if he’d simultaneously recognized Palestine’s independence, with its capital also in Jerusalem.
Did you read my previous post? Trump cannot recognize Palestine’s independence with the capital in Jerusalem. That must be worked out between the parties involved.