I suppose I should correct myself - regarding that 38% you were specifically answering my throwaway comment that a warlike secession backed by Qanon terrorists would get stomped by the US military.
I still don’t think that the red-state rank and file are for the most part so shitty that they would go AWOL/get shot for treason over this. But maybe they are. I think that would just make wounded military even more pissed, and you’d see missile strikes against rebel positions. You don’t need the entire army to turn a region to a smoking ruin.
You’re not your own country if another country’s military has free reign to come and go through your boarders as they please. I’m sure they would allow the withdrawal of the USA troops but I would doubt they would allow easy resupply.
So, you think that hundreds of millions of us citizens would give up their US citizenship and somehow a proportional number of solders wouldn’t, for the same reason choose their home over their former country. I’d be surprised if it was just the trump supporters and not every solder from those states. I think the red staters who stay the the blue staters that leave to go to the rsa would be roughly proportional.
I don’t think the red state secession would ask their populace if they wanted to give up their citizenship (and medicare, and social security). The only way I can see any of this happening is if Republican leadership ignore the wishes of 70% of their populace (including most of the people in their urban regions) and just declare that they’re leaving and taking everyone else with them. And the main US goes along with this because the republicans are such horrible obstructionist facists that the US would rather abandon all that land and most of those people just to get rid of the republican leaders.
It’s almost inconceivable that the US could be so sick of these monsters as to abandon the regions to them. About the only way it seems plausible is if they basically allow everyone in these states to re-naturalize upon re-entry, which is to say they’d pretty much be dual citizens until they renounced their Neocon citizenship.
ETA: Okay, it doesn’t seem plausible even then. But it’s the hypothetical, dammit!
+1
Neocon has 16% of US GDP, which is a bucket load of cash.
Give them 16% of US borrowing which is a bucket load of debt and off their lower tax base they may struggle to fund it.
Y’all may be hypothesising the likelihood of some Boy’s Own Civil War II scenario but this secessionitis stands and falls on the economics, not the weaponry.
Neocon uses what currency? The USD where monetary policy is set to best suit the OUSA? Find that the OUSA and other financial institutions impose a substantial risk premium on their borrowings? Tariff and trade barriers going up with customs houses on the state lines? Or they establish the American Peso for fiscal independence, issue their own currency and unleash hyperinflation?
I think this sums up our disagreement. I can see a world where the states that leave all vote to leave by at least 5% (52.5-47.5%) with 10% probably the average for the leave contingent. I think there would certainly be a large group on both sides that feel they are being dragged along so at least for a period of time it would be best to allow population exchange between both sides.
That’s not how it works. Per the 1868 ruling Texas v. White, states would need approval of both houses of Congress and three fourths of the state legislatures. It’s not just a referendum.
Thanks, I’m not familiar with Texas v white. I didn’t realize that we had formalized the rules of succession. That’s actually a lower bar than I would have expected.
I still don’t see a state house voting to succeed without at least a 5 point margin in favor from their state. It may only be from polling vs a referendum but starting a new country without overwhelming military power or a willing populous seems ill advised.
Might be easily achieved, actually. If 18 states want to secede, you’re already halfway there. All you need is about half the other states to be happy to get rid of them. Hell, it could be a landslide.
Our military is deployed in 150 countries around the world. Are none of them their own country?
Many people join the military specifically to leave the areas that they come from. If we allow current military to stay US citizens if they choose to do so, then I would think that the majority of that 38% would do so.
They are willing to do that in the existent US, I don’t see why they wouldn’t also ignore the desires of the majority of their populations if they split off.
If that were to happen, the US should maintain a policy of free immigration from Red Stateland for at least a decade or so, possibly for life, and require that the new tyranny at their border allow any of its citizens to request asylum and not prevent anyone from emigrating.
They didn’t. The relevant point of Texas v white essentially boils down to saying that secession is unconstitutional.
The bar that is stated is that of making a new amendment to make such an act in line with the Constitution.
You really need more than just a bare majority in order to make such a thing work. If I were writing this new Constitutional amendment that allowed states to dissolve their connection to the Union, I would require at least a 2/3rd’s, if not 3/4th’s majority.
Ideally, it would be two votes. One at the 2/3rd’s, that begins the process of negotiation of separation. Once negotiations are finalized, and everyone is informed as to what the consequences are, then a 3/4th’s vote “pulls the trigger” so to speak.
Which of those countries doesn’t have a treaty allowing the US to be there, oh right the ones we’ve invaded. In fact the US has foreign bases on US soil too. But, no if the US could just deploy troops wherever and wherever it wanted in Germany including running armed convoys down it roads at will I would say Germany isn’t a real country.
That is much less true than it used to be. Most people joining the military come from a military family. In fact the single largest predictor of someone joining is if one of their parents were in the service with over 30% of recruits having at least one parent in the military. When that is combined with the fact that most recruits are from RSA only have 30-40% bail would be an accomplishment.
I don’t agree. We don’t require nearly that many people to agree to kill someone (death penalty or go to war or abortion if you feel that’s killing someone) so why would we require it for changing who you pay taxes too. As long as their was a period where people could shuffle between the new countries to get into the “right one”, why does it matter how small the minority the majority has tyrany over?
I made a reasonable (though not bulletproof) prediction based on some of real-life military and geographical factors in a specific setting. You didn’t, and won’t.
That was kinda the point. That that would be part of the negotiated settlement of separation.
By this, you mean other countries have bases in the US? If so, no, they don’t. (Technically, Germany has a training base in New Mexico, within one of our Air Force bases, but that’s not really the same thing at all.)
So, you don’t think that Germany is a real country. Interesting.
This math doesn’t work out the way you think that it does. 30% is not most.
30% of the military is minorities. What are the chances that, given the opportunity to choose, they will choose to fight for the white supremacists. I can’t find a good breakdown, so it is speculation, but I would guess that the percentage of minorities that come from red states is higher than the overall average.
You need 100% agreement among the jury to be convicted, and another 100% agreement that you should be executed.
Poor analogy, but even in that case 100% of the mothers carrying the child in question would have to agree before the pregnancy was terminated.
Why do we not just have a simple majority for changing and amending the Constitution?
That’s why.
That would need to be necessary anyway. I do wonder if RSA would honor such a deal, though.
Is not about negotiated and limited access by other militaries. It is specifically about OUS troops coming through the boarders as they please.
Italy, the Netherlands, Singapore, and the UK also have training bases. While the UK also has several non-training bases including permanently stationed fighter squadrons. The neatherlands also has a permanent stationed fighter squadron.
How the US military is allowed to maneuver in Germany is tightly regulated. I’ve spent time on 3 bases in Germany though never been permanently stationed there. I’m glad you think tanks are rolling down the autobahn whenever they get a hair up their ass.
Next time read the cite. Most come from military families (78%) while 30% have a parent that served. The army in particular is concerned about the US military turning into a family occupation and developing a class of war fighters.
That is reasonable since there are higher percentages of minorities in the red states particularly when we’re talking about African American’s. Even all 30% went to the OUSA and the remainder 70% split 50/50 my 30% estimate is reasonable. If the remaining 70% split by population 66/33 you would still lose ~17% of the military over night.
That’s fair I was thinking about enacting the death penalty or abortion laws not utilizing them.
That’s another good point yet inside the states voting for the constitutional change we’ve never required more than a simple majority. I guess because they want the states to agree more than the people.
Huh? I think you skipped something.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t want to. Most of the people I know bitch about the blue staters that move there so I don’t know why they wouldn’t want them gone.
If what you’re complaining about is that my cite doesn’t explicitly compare the Trump support level among the troops with that in the general population, my apologies for that: I thought readers would automatically remember about where Trump’s pre-election support level in the general population was, due to constant bombardment with poll numbers in the media in the run-up to the election.
However, my cite does in fact support my claim, because 37% is a lower percentage than 42%, even if the cite didn’t explicitly mention the 42% number for comparison.
You can’t compare to each other polls taken at different times and by different polling organizations.
Beyond that, you’ve cherry-picked numbers that you liked - specifically the favorability numbers. Even at that time, military members favored Biden by only 4%, which I believe is less than what the polls of general population were showing at the time.
More broadly, the cite says the military breakdown of Rep-Lib/Dem/Ind is 40%/16%/44%, which differs markedly from the rest of the country and in a more conservative direction. Further, in the section of that cite titled “Election views”, the article presents evidence and analysis that there was dissatisfaction in the military with Trump specifically, but that in recent history the military has tended to skew strongly Republican, which is the opposite of what you tried to cherry-pick out of this same article.
Presuming we’re talking about the peaceful separation, the US military is 100% guaranteed not to hand over their bases and matériel to the seceding states, and they are 100% guaranteed to require sufficient access to these bases to, at a minimum, ship everything out of them (and destroy anything they leave). The RSA will agree to this if they want to exist.
I still find it quite odd that you think that these men will betray their country and abandon both their duty and their paying job just because their home state seceded. Especially if the split was reasonably amicable and they were allowed to retain their american citizenship (and health care, and social security) if the they stayed.
It’s not like they’re likely to have strong feelings of loyalty for this country that didn’t exist yesterday, and it’s not like their new country/old state even needs them to come fight on its behalf.
They may be annoying neighbors but their tax dollars are nice. Plus maybe they’ll need bodies for the gulag or something.
The problem is that they’re taking whole cities of innocent people along with them. Given that the hypothetical explicitly states that the US lets the states leave because the states’ politicial leaders are horrible monsters with no interest in social programs or human rights, I think we can expect their treatment of nontrumpists to escalate into human rights violations almost immediately.
You need 100% agreement among the jury to be convicted, and another 100% agreement that you should be executed.