From the Great Ongoing Revolving Speakership thread:
Can someone 'splain like I’m 5 years old, please. What does this threat mean and exactly why is it a threat? What is the opposite-- IOW, what would it look like NOT to primary someone?
Yes, it’s one of those cases of “verbing a noun”, thus compressing
into
“To primary them”
The regular order of things in established political culture has been that incumbent members of the conference would be presumed to support one another’s renomination and reelection, and if they have a problem with someone then just sit on their hands and not help that person. The threat is to actively recruit and campaign for challengers and direct the fundraising towards the challenger.
Okay, so in the Jordan quote in my OP, he meant he would find other candidates to run against any Republican who is coming up for election if they vote against him as Speaker?
That seems like a big blast of hot air. How many Republicans currently sitting in the House will be facing re-election? Where is JJ going to find the opposing candidates who are ready, willing, and able to run against an incumbent successfully? Does he have a stable of potential MAGA candidates chomping at the bit (so to speak)? How is he going to finance all of these campaigns?
Thanks for the answers. I thought that was what it meant, but his threat seemed like it would be so impossible to execute effectively that I thought I must be missing some nuance. I know, I know… these guys don’t do nuance.
Every single one who does not choose to retire or take a different job. The whole House cycles every 2 years(*). The thing is, for most of those people, incumbency normally means for the primary you need to stay awake, stay on message, show up (dressed), and not accuse anyone of having coke orgies, and you have it made. Merely having someone actively run from the MAGA side (and you will find people who will do that… they’re MAGAs, they’ll do it for the views and likes even if hopeless) with other sitting members’ support including a TruthSocial/X post from ex-Prez Doofus calling you a stupid name, will be a headache for you and make you spend resources you wanted to use in the general. You may make it but they’ll make it unpleasant.
…
(* ok, except for the Puerto Rico member, but that just shows how special we are and is a different FQ)
The key thing about “being primaried” is that it means that the revolutionary faction within your party will find a crazy to accuse you of being a traitor to the cause. Which means your seat and district will be driven farther to the lunatic fringe by a blizzard of propaganda. And you will be replaced by a wacko.
The only way for you the incumbent to fight back is to go hard-over wacko yourself. Whether you win or you lose the primary, the revolutionary bastards have succeeded in radicalizing you or your replacement and your constituency. It’s a ratchet for radicalization.
There is nothing necessarily Right wing about this political maneuver. But about 99% of the last 20 years of this stuff in the USA has been done on the Right, not the Left.
The vast majority of representatives (on both sides of the aisle) are only vulnerable to being primaried. Most districts are noncompetitive, meaning the party who is currently representing it is the party which will continue to represent it. Whoever wins the primary will win the general election.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will on the ballot next November (House members have two-year terms, Senators have six-year terms). Deadlines for when candidates must register for primary elections vary by state, but I believe the earliest deadline is this December. Primary elections take place starting early next year through the summer.
Could Jordan and company find and run primary opponents against all the Members who oppose him? Part of that depends on how many vote against him. Makes a difference if we’re talking about 5 or 50. Assuming it’s on the smaller end, they’d likely work with the Trumpier state and local Republican party officials to identify candidates. The local parties are hotbeds of MAGA enthusiasm, and it likely wouldn’t be that hard to find someone willing to take a shot. Jordan has a leadership PAC which can be used to funnel money to candidates, as well as plugging them in with the web of MAGA-affiliated campaign fundraisers.
In short, it’s not a threat to be taken lightly by an incumbent.
I didn’t mean that the idea itself was hot air, just that JJ being able to assemble enough moving parts to carry it off effectively might be. As @flurb addressed here:
We might be moving from FQ territory into the P&E or IMHO zone.
There’s the thing. Can Jordan deliver on these threats?
I am not sure. It seems the RNC (Republican National Committee) has more to do with who runs and how funds are divided and who they support. I am not sure how much sway Jordan has there.
Honestly, I am not even sure where the RNC has its collective head at. The RNC chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel (Mitt Romney’s daughter) had been supportive of some things like LGBT groups but, with internal backlash, has moved away from that and supported Trump. I really do not know how that all plays out now.
He can certainly (along with other extreme Right Republicans) provide endorsements, support, and go on the various Right-learning media to talk up a competitor and smack-talk the incumbent, or show up at said challenger’s rallies. Which could spell trouble (at least in terms of time and money spent to counter), even if the RNC doesn’t meddle with the funding. And that leaves out the fact that maybe Mr. Trump does the same, tarring said incumbent with the RINO / Secret Democrat label.
So even if the RNC leans toward keeping the seat safe in the hands of the current member, there are plenty of other ways for Jordan and his ilk to make their displeasure felt.
ETA - attempting to explain factually as much as possible considering the forum.
The National Republican Congressional Committe (NRCC) is the primary “establishment” body for electing Republican candidates for the House. The current Chair is Rep. Richard Hudson – who has endorsed Jim Jordan for Speaker.
But more than that, there is a vast web of Republican fundraising networks that Jordan could call on. As I mentioned, he personally controls his leadership PAC which can make donations to primary candidates. Many of his allies also control PACs and could help funnel funds to preferred candidates. He can also make appeals to the enormous network of small-dollar donors that have become the lifeblood of MAGA campaign fundraising. And if Trump gets involved endorsing primary challengers, their coffers will overflow with cash.
Its also worth mentioning how low the turnout can be for a primary, especially in a safe district. It’s under 20%, and then of course thats split into two groups. (Even safe districts are often 40% opposition party).
This means that it terms of absolute numbers, it doesn’t take much to shift a primary. Pretty much only True Believers show up, which favors more radical, disruptive candidates. If an opposition candidate is at all serious, then the incumbant has to counter that and basically run a whole GOTV campaign, which is expensive and time consuming.
Powerful politicians have been primaried out despite national support. AOC primaried Joseph Crowley, who was on the fast track for party leadership. Eric freaking Cantor was primaried out while serving as House Minority leader (I think?). In both these cases, the challenger was significantly more ideologically extreme.
The threat of being primaried is very real. I imagine all these dudes watch the concession speeches of Cantor and Crowley and have nightmares of having to do the same.
And for those in competitive districts, a primary opponent forces the candidate to woo the extreme voters in his own party, with statements he’s then stuck with for the general election
I’ll just add that, in a competitive district (rare breed, but there are some), sometimes the opposition party (perhaps cynically) HOPES for a successful primary challenge within the other party, hoping this will swing some moderate voters their way in the general. (Where the rules allow this — “open primaries” — they may even encourage their voters to vote for the opposition’s more radical primary candidate).
FiveThirtyEight.com had a discussion on this a year or two ago. It seems to work out a little more than half the time.
Of course, it can fail spectacularly. The national-scale analogy is how many Democrats in 2015-16 were hoping Trump would be the Republican candidate for President, assuming he was unelectable. Oops.